July 11th, 2025
U.S. equity futures were trending down ahead of Thursday’s open, as investors react to fresh tariff announcements overnight. S&P 500 futures are off 0.5% from yesterday’s record close, while Russell 2000 futures are down 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by about 260 points, or 0.6%. Canadian equity futures are pricing in a 0.4% decline. The risk-off tone follows a weaker session across global markets, with Japan’s Nikkei slipping 0.2% and European equities falling 1.2%.
New tariff moves by President Donald Trump sent U.S. equities lower at midday. Trump’s plan to impose 35% tariffs on Canadian imports weighed on shares of Canada-based companies, including Royal Bank of Canada (RY) and Spotify Technology (SPOT).
Economic Takeaways:
- U.S. Treasury yields are rising across the curve. The 2-year yield is up 2 basis points and the 10-year up 4 basis points, resulting in a modest steepening.
- Energy was the only sector in green territory on Friday as the overall market pulled back following President Trump’s 35% tariff announcement on Canada.
- Oil prices are rebounding slightly after recent losses. Brent crude futures rose 1.5% to trade at just under $70 per barrel after falling on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.6% to $67 per barrel.
- Spot silver prices rose 1.8% to $37.63 an ounce on Friday morning, reaching their highest level since 2011.
- The U.S. dollar is trading moderately higher against a basket of major currencies, strengthening against the euro, pound, and yen.
- Bitcoin rose above $118,000 per token to hover at new highs before paring gains.
- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) climbed nearly 7% to just under 17 early Friday after reaching a five-month low earlier in the week. Rising tariff anxieties and positioning ahead of a busy week for markets may be behind the increase.
Tariffs Take Center Stage
President Trump escalated trade tensions late Wednesday by announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian goods that fall outside the scope of the USMCA agreement, effective August 1. The move is a response to concerns over fentanyl imports and Canada’s 400% tariff on U.S. dairy products. The new rate will stack atop existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, though energy products will remain subject to a 10% duty.
In an interview with NBC News, Trump also floated 15% to 20% blanket tariffs on most trading partners, higher than the 10% level currently in effect. He signaled that a tariff letter will soon be sent to the European Union. If no deal is reached, those measures are also expected to take effect on August 1. While markets have largely shrugged off earlier tariff announcements, the new deadline raises the risk of broader economic and market disruptions.
401(k) Investors Flee to Safety in Volatile Second Quarter
Retirement savers weren’t willing to sit tight during the market’s turbulence in Q2, according to Alight Solutions’ 401(k) Index.
Trading activity in 401(k) plans surged to its highest level in five years, as investors actively moved money out of equities and into fixed income assets.
The bulk of these withdrawals came from target-date funds. Many participants shifted money from company stock and midsize U.S. equity funds into more conservative options like bonds, and to a lesser extent, money market and stable value funds.
According to Alight, 401(k) participants moved from stocks to bonds on 40 of the 61 trading days in the quarter, with 42% of all inflows directed into bond funds.
“These moves towards fixed income investments reflect a desire among investors to reduce volatility in their retirement accounts,” Rob Austin, head of thought leadership at Alight Solutions, told Yahoo Finance. “While some reacted to market swings, others took a more measured approach, rebalancing their portfolios to meet target allocations, especially since equities outperformed fixed income in the second quarter.”
All Eyes on Earnings Next Week
Second-quarter earnings season kicks off next week, with investors focused on how tariffs and policy uncertainty are weighing on corporate results. Analysts expect 5% year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, down sharply from 13% in Q1, according to FactSet. Much of the downgrade reflects recent trade and policy volatility, but markets will be watching closely to assess the extent of the impact—and which sectors are bearing the brunt.
On the Move
- Shares of lithium producer Albemarle (ALB) fell after a downgrade from UBS, as analysts cited concerns over a global lithium oversupply that could drive prices lower.
- Nvidia (NVDA) continued its winning streak, climbing higher after becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization, fueled by ongoing momentum in AI demand.
- Shares of cryptocurrency-related companies MicroStrategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) rose as Bitcoin hit a new all-time high.
- Military drone makers AeroVironment (AVAV) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) advanced following remarks from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who outlined plans to cut regulatory hurdles and ramp up Pentagon spending on domestically produced drones.
- Levi’s (LEVI) shares rose 9% after the retailer raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts.
- Netflix stock has fallen 5.5% in July.
- AMC (AMC) stock gained 9.5% in early trading after Wedbush upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral. AMC recently signed an agreement to raise $223.3 million in new financing and convert at least $143 million of debt into equity.
- Performance Food’s (PFGC) stock rose over 8% on Friday before the bell after news broke that it had attracted takeover interest from US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD).
- Tesla (TSLA) traded flat early Friday after jumping over 4% the day before. The rally followed a Reuters report that the company is seeking regulatory approval to launch its robotaxi service in Arizona.
- Texas Instruments (TXN) gained nearly 1% pre-market after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, citing greater confidence that the semiconductor inventory correction is nearing an end.
- Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) were down 1% and 2%, respectively, in early trading. Both surged Thursday—CLF by 10% and FCX by 3%—as the materials sector responded positively to newly announced U.S. tariffs on imported metals.
- Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), MGM Resorts (MGM), Expedia (EXPE), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) saw mixed movement early Friday. All rallied Thursday after Delta Air Lines delivered strong earnings and projected mostly positive travel trends. However, a 5% decline in main cabin demand raised concerns about reduced spending from budget-conscious travelers.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) dipped slightly even after reporting a 39% year-over-year jump in second-quarter sales. While this isn’t TSM’s official earnings release—that’s expected later this month—the results bode well for the broader chip sector.
- Boeing (BA) dipped 0.4% in early action. The Wall Street Journal reported that Indian authorities are expected to release a preliminary report Friday on the crash of Air India Flight 171, which occurred June 12.
What’s Ahead
Next week’s crowded schedule includes earnings from large banks and June inflation data.
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