July 14th, 2025
Markets Mixed as Oil Slides and Bond Yields Nudge Higher
U.S. stocks posted slight gains on Monday as Wall Street geared up for a potentially volatile week, with fresh trade tensions adding a layer of uncertainty ahead of a crucial inflation report and the kickoff of Q2 earnings season.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered just above breakeven, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) edged up roughly 0.2%.
In international markets, Asia closed mixed overnight, with China’s trade surplus unexpectedly rising to $115 billion in June. Meanwhile, European markets fell in response to the new 30% U.S. tariffs on the European Union.
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) edged up while European stocks slipped Monday morning, as traders reacted to the latest tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Economic Takeaways:
- In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730.
- Oil prices declined after U.S. President Donald Trump reignited tensions in the global trade war, while his new strategy to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine notably excluded any fresh actions targeting Moscow’s energy exports.
- West Texas Intermediate dropped over 1%, falling below $68 a barrel, after President Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union and Mexico over the weekend, dampening the outlook for energy demand.
- The U.S. dollar is advancing against major international currencies.
- Gold climbed as tariff threats from Trump pushed investors toward the safe-haven asset.
Bitcoin Hits Record High Above $122K as Congress Kicks Off ‘Crypto Week’ With Major Legislation in Focus
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to an all-time high above $122,000 early Monday as Capitol Hill launches “Crypto Week,” a pivotal moment for the digital asset industry with three major bills up for debate in the House of Representatives.
The crypto rally sparked a broader boost in related stocks, with Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) both hitting new highs, and newly public Circle (CRCL) skyrocketing more than 500% since its June IPO. At the center of the action is the GENIUS Act, set for a House vote on Tuesday. The bill aims to establish the first federal framework for stablecoins, restricting issuance to regulated entities and requiring 1:1 reserve backing with dollars or similarly liquid assets. Having cleared the Senate in June, House Republicans are eager to fast-track the measure to President Trump for final approval.
Also on the docket: the CLARITY Act, a sweeping legislative effort to clarify which federal agency oversees different types of digital assets. Under the bill, blockchain-based “digital commodities” would fall under the CFTC, while securities-based crypto assets would be regulated by the SEC. The House will also consider the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, further shaping the U.S. approach to digital currency policy.
“Bitcoin’s cleared $120,000, but the real test is $125,000,” said Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets. While short-term profit booking can be expected, “the uptrend has fuel” driven by strong demand from exchange traded funds, she added. “Support at $112,000 and any dip looks like a buying opportunity, not a reversal.”
Trump Threatens Harsh Secondary Tariffs on Russia
President Trump floated the possibility of imposing secondary tariffs of up to 100% on Russia if the country fails to make progress toward ending its war with Ukraine within 50 days.
During a meeting in the Oval Office with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Monday, the U.S. president said he was “very unhappy” with Moscow over the lack of progress towards a deal to end the conflict.
“We are very unhappy — I am — with Russia,” Trump said. “I’m disappointed in President Putin, because I thought we would have had a deal two months ago.”
“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100 per cent, you’d call them secondary tariffs,” he added. The tariffs would be “biting” and “very, very powerful,” he said.
The proposed secondary tariffs would target imports from countries continuing to trade with Russia. While direct U.S. trade with Russia has sharply declined during the war, Moscow still maintains active trade relationships with numerous countries in Europe and Asia — particularly China.
BREAKING NEWS
OpenAI, Alphabet’s Google, Anthropic and Elon Musk’s AI firm xAI have won contracts aimed at scaling up adoption of advanced AI capabilities in the U.S. Department of Defense, the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office said on Monday.
On the Move
- Tesla stock (TSLA) rose Monday morning after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla should be able to invest in his xAI startup, pending a shareholder vote.
- Apple (AAPL) shares slipped 1.2% in early Monday trading as the tech giant comes under increasing pressure to revamp its approach to artificial intelligence.
- Coinbase (COIN), the largest crypto exchange, rose 1.6%, while Robinhood (HOOD) gained nearly 3%. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) added 0.5%.
- Strategy (MSTR) was up 2.8%. The Michael Saylor-led firm is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin through its bitcoin treasury.
- Nio (NIO): U.S.-listed shares of Nio climbed 5% in premarket trading after the Chinese EV manufacturer debuted its ONVO L90 SUV lineup, set to launch at the end of July. Strong early pre-sales lifted optimism about the seven-seater’s market competitiveness.
- Nebius Group (NBIS): Shares of Nebius jumped more than 7% after Goldman Sachs began coverage with a Buy rating, highlighting the company’s growing importance in powering AI infrastructure.
- Tesla (TSLA): Tesla gained 1.3% ahead of a key shareholder vote on whether to back CEO Elon Musk’s AI venture, xAI. The vote follows reports that SpaceX has committed $2 billion to support the startup.
- Lionsgate (LION): Lionsgate stock surged 11% in premarket trading following reports that Legendary Entertainment is exploring a potential acquisition of the film studio.
- Kenvue (KVUE) shares rose 4% in premarket trading after the company announced that CEO and board member Thibaut Mongon has stepped down amid an ongoing strategic review.
What’s Ahead
Tuesday morning’s inflation data will shape the economic agenda for the week ahead. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial metric for investors and policymakers alike, especially with the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision less than two weeks away. Estimates calling for the headline figure to rise to 2.6% annualized, from 2.4% the prior month.
On the earnings front, all the major U.S. banks are scheduled to report this week, with renewed investor optimism around IPO and M&A activity, as well as Wells Fargo’s (WFC) release from a decade of stricter regulatory oversight, expected to be key themes.
Earnings season for major U.S. tech companies kicks off with Netflix (NFLX), while chipmakers ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) are set to provide important updates amid the booming AI chip market. Other notable companies reporting quarterly results include PepsiCo (PEP), United Airlines (UAL), and American Express (AXP).
Earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.7% year-over-year for the S&P 500, down considerably from 12.8% in the first quarter.
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