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The early results are in and Wall Street strategists issuing 2025 forecasts see the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rally chugging along over the next 12 months.

But missing from their baseline calls is one of the most popular themes of the past 18 months in markets: artificial intelligence.

AI driving the market higher has been a hallmark of market calls dating back to the spring of 2023 when Nvidia’s first blowout earnings report of the cycle kickstarted a roaring bull market rally.

On Monday, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski initiated a 2025 year-end target of 6,700 for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson issued a 12-month target of 6,500.

Neither leaned too far into the impact of AI driving stocks higher — perhaps a sign of a maturing bull market — and instead, both discussed further broadening of the rally away from the tech-concentrated stock market of the past two years.

“We expect this broadening in earnings growth to continue as the Fed cuts rates into next year and business cycle indicators continue to improve,” Wilson wrote.

Belski’s work shows the market has already broadened, with 276 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 in the second half of 2024 — better than the 10-year average of 238 and above the number seen since the start of 2023.

At the surface this can lead to weaker gains for the index, as smaller gains in small companies make for smaller overall gains. Dating back to 1990, Belski found that when the top 100 stocks in the S&P 500 outperform, the index delivers an average annual return of 11.8% compared to the average return of 8% when those stocks underperform the index.

In other words, the returns aren’t bad; they’re just not as great as the ones investors have enjoyed for two years now.

To be clear, the idea that an AI-related fever could keep driving stock prices higher hasn’t been forgotten among Wall Street strategists. Just two weeks ago, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel wrote that he sees the S&P 500 reaching 6,600 by June 2025 as “exuberance lies ahead” amid a “public reengaged in speculation.”

Wilson did offer a bull case in which wide AI adoption juices margins — and pushes the flagship index near 7,400.

For any investor in the S&P 500, that of course sounds like an appealing scenario. But perhaps even more appealing is that strategists no longer need to rely on AI to explain why the market will keep moving higher. Even if AI doesn’t show up to the party, Wall Street expects a good time.

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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Options traders are primed for a nearly $300-billion swing in Nvidia’s (NVDA) market value following the chipmaker’s quarterly results on Wednesday, U.S. options market data showed.

Nvidia options implied an 8.5% swing for the shares in either direction following the results, which will be reported after markets close, according to data from options analytics service ORATS.

That is in line with previous percentage moves following results over the last 12 quarters. But with the AI-chipmaker’s market cap having grown to $3.44 trillion, the expected swing in market value is close to the biggest ever, at about $292 billion.

A move of that size would dwarf the market cap of about 95% of S&P 500 constituents.

Post-earnings moves in Nvidia’s shares have typically undershot market expectations. Larger-than-expected moves, however, have tended to be to the upside, said ORATS founder Matt Amberson.

Of the last 12 quarterly earnings reports, five post-earnings moves have been outside what has been expected by the market. Of those, all have seen the stock price go higher, Amberson said.

Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, wrote on Monday that traders are assigning a slightly higher probability to an outsized move to the upside than to the downside.

Results for the chipmaker – which is at the heart of the generative artificial intelligence boom – could be a key factor in determining the market’s trajectory. Investors are turning their focus to Nvidia following a post-U.S. election rally that has stalled in recent days.

The S&P 500 is up 23% year-to-date despite a decline last week.

“The market will extrapolate whatever Nvidia says to the entire AI trade,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, in a note.

Nvidia has bested lofty Wall Street revenue expectations for the past eight quarters. But with analysts expecting a slower pace of growth, how the company overcomes delays and supply-chain issues is likely to be an important factor for its stock price.

The chipmaker is expected to report third-quarter sales surging 82.8% to $33.13 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

On Monday, Nvidia shares finished down 1.3% to $140.15. For the year, the stock is up about 180%, making it one of the top performers in the S&P 500 index.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Rod Nickel)