Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25
(Bloomberg) — Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which listed the metal among top commodity trades for 2025 and said prices could extend gains during Donald Trump’s presidency.
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“Go for gold,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note, reiterating a target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025. The structural driver of the forecast is higher demand from central banks, while a cyclical lift would come from flows to exchange-traded funds as the Federal Reserve cuts, they said.
Gold has staged a powerful rally this year — hitting successive records — before pulling back in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s White House win, which boosted the dollar. The commodity’s advance has been underpinned by increased official-sector buying, and the Fed’s pivot to easier policy. Goldman said a Trump administration may also aid bullion.
An unprecedented escalation of trade tensions could revive speculative positioning in gold, they said. In addition, rising concerns over US fiscal sustainability may also aid prices, they added, noting that central banks — especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — may opt to buy more of the precious metal.
Spot gold was last at about $2,584 an ounce, having peaked above $2,790 last month.
In other outlooks, Brent crude was seen trading between $70 and $85 a barrel next year, although there’s near-term upside risk if the Trump administration clamps down on flows from Iran, they said. Base metals were favored over ferrous, and European gas faced upside risks in the short term from the weather, they said.
“The new US administration further raises the risks to Iran supply,” the analysts said, citing scope for potentially tighter enforcement of sanctions in a maximum-pressure campaign. “A potential strengthening in US support to Israel may also increase the probability of disruptions to Iran’s oil assets.”
For farm goods, Goldman weighed the potential fallout from possible tit-for-trade trade measures between Washington and Beijing during Trump’s tenure. “Higher China tariffs on US agricultural goods and meat could reduce demand for US exports,” the analysts said. “Given insufficient alternative export markets, rebalancing the US market would require lower US soybean/corn/meat prices.”
(Adds comment on possible agricultural tariffs in final paragraph)
Samsung Shares Jump on $7 Billion Buyback After Missing AI Boom
(Bloomberg) — Samsung Electronics Co. shares surged after South Korea’s biggest company announced a surprise plan to buy back about 10 trillion won ($7.2 billion) of its own stock over the next year.
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The stock rose as much as 7.5% in Seoul trading Monday, adding to a 7.2% jump Friday ahead of the news. The shares are still down about 28% this year amid concerns that its memory chip business has fallen behind in the artificial intelligence market.
Analysts expect the buyback to provide a catalyst for the stock, while some noted that it may also help the founding family tighten its grip. Shares of competitor SK Hynix Inc. have climbed about 23% this year on investor enthusiasm for its AI chips.
“The sudden buyback comes as a positive surprise to us, and we believe Samsung’s management is proactively aiming to prevent further share price decline,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Jay Kwon wrote in a research note. “We believe that the restructuring and strategy/action plan to regain tech leadership will be more critical for the share price over the mid-to-long term.”
In the first phase of the plan announced Friday, Samsung will buy back about 3 trillion won of shares until February 2025, all of which it will cancel. The board will deliberate how best to deploy the remaining 7 trillion won.
Sanghyun Park of Clepsydra Capital, notes that the buyback will help the founding family strengthen its control of the company by reducing shares held externally. He also notes it may help them with collateral issues.
Members of the family have pledged group company shares as collateral for inheritance taxes on their holdings, which they are paying in installments. Some of the family have also pledged stock to borrow money from financial institutions, loans that carry risks of margin calls when the stocks fall below certain levels.
“Local desks have been buzzing since last week about Samsung potentially pulling a short-term price pop to deal with the family’s collateral squeeze,” Park wrote in a note on Smartkarma. “The stock’s probably gonna camp comfortably above the 53,000 won margin call danger zone for a while.”
Samsung is also still struggling to catch up to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. in outsourced chipmaking, as well as fend off tough competition in sluggish markets for smartphones and other consumer electronics. While it recently said it has made “meaningful” progress in AI memory chips, some observers think management changes are coming soon.
Analysis-Headwinds hit Trump-fueled rally in US stocks
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A U.S. stock rally fueled by Donald Trump’s election victory is stumbling, as investors contend with everything from renewed inflation worries to uncertainty over the impact of the president-elect’s policies.
The S&P 500 fell 2% in the past week, erasing more than half its gains from a post-election surge fueled in part by optimism over the pro-growth policies that are a key part of Trump’s economic platform.
Though the index remains near record highs and is up 23% this year, some of that enthusiasm has been tempered in recent days.
Bets that some of Trump’s policies could spur a rebound in inflation and cloud the picture for further interest rate cuts helped push the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield to its highest level in more than five months on Friday, a potentially unwelcome development for stocks.
Worries over Trump’s cabinet selections and plans for cutting bureaucratic excess have bruised the shares of pharmaceutical companies and government contractors. Meanwhile, Wall Street has little clarity on when, and to what extent, the president-elect will implement his agenda.
While the market had rushed to price in the positive outcomes from Trump’s economic policies, “I’m skeptical that it’s going to be that easy,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.
A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump has previously said that his trade policies – which call for pricey tariffs on goods not only from rivals such as China but allies such as the European Union – would revitalize American manufacturing and yield enough revenue to ease concerns about ballooning the deficit or increasing inflation.
EYES ON YIELDS
Rising yields are one of the market’s chief concerns, because they offer investment competition for equities while raising the cost of capital for companies and consumers.
The benchmark 10-year yield – which typically moves with interest rate expectations – has surged about 90 basis points since mid-September as investors curtailed bets on how deeply the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in the face of robust growth that could stoke an inflationary rebound.
Until recently, stocks may have been able to shrug off the rise in yields because it had been driven by stronger-than-expected economic data. But many of Trump’s policies – from tax cuts to tariffs – are seen as inflationary, and could keep yields climbing past the 4.5% level that some investors have flagged as a potential trigger for stock market unease.
Chinese Stocks Rebound on Guidelines to Boost Shareholder Value
(Bloomberg) — Equities in China and Hong Kong rebounded from last week’s selloff as traders reassess an outlook for further stimulus and the country’s guidance on boosting corporate valuation.
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The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose as much as 2.2% Monday, following a loss of more than 6% last week. Financial stocks such as China Everbright Bank Co. fueled the gain, with the sector’s gauge in Hong Kong rising the most in a month.
Shares of some Chinese state-owned companies with a price-to-book ratio below one also advanced. The China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines on Friday, prodding companies to come up with valuation enhancement plans that are “clear, specific, and executable,” according to its statement.
Chinese stocks’ rally has cooled in recent week due to concerns over persistent deflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions following Donald Trump’s win in the US election. But some investors remain hopeful around China’s encouraging economic data and a bet that further stimulus measures are coming to shore up the world’s second largest economy.
“The document itself is a continuation of Beijing’s effort to stabilize the market for the short term, and in the medium term to cut loopholes and enhance market efficiency,” Siguo Chen, a portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said, referring to the CSRC’s statement. “I don’t think this will have an immediate impact other than sentiment.”
The securities regulator’s announcement follows similar efforts by its regional peers, such as Japan and South Korea. Japan’s campaign to raise corporate value has propelled its equity benchmarks to multi-decade highs. Korea also recently launched its Value-Up Index, a key plank of the government’s push for better corporate governance and improved shareholder returns.
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Stock market today: Asian shares are mixed after Wall Street suffers worst loss since Election Day
BANGKOK (AP) — Shares started out the week mixed in Asia after U.S. stocks fell to their worst loss since Election Day.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 1% to 38,255.65 as the yen regained some strength against the U.S. dollar after the central bank governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates as conditions permit.
The dollar fell to 154.46 Japanese yen from 154.54 yen late Friday. It had been trading above 156 yen last week.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2% to 2,465.60 after Samsung Electronics, the country’s biggest company, announced a share buyback plan. Samsung’s shares jumped 6%.
Chinese markets advanced, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong adding 1.2% to 19,655.58. The Shanghai Composite index gained 1.2% to 3,372.18. Recent data showed improvements in retail spending that economists say suggest government stimulus policies are giving the stagnant economy a boost.
Elsewhere in Asia, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% higher, to 8,295.40. Taiwan’s Taiex lost 0.8% and the SET in Bangkok picked up 0.6%.
On Friday, U.S. stocks tumbled Friday with the waning of the “Trump bump” that Wall Street got from last week’s presidential election, along with a cut to interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% to 5,870.62, for its worst day since before Election Day to close out a losing week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% to 43,444.99, and the Nasdaq composite sank 2.2% to 18,680.12.
Vaccine manufacturers helped drag the market down after President-elect Donald Trump said he wants Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent anti-vaccine activist, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Moderna tumbled 7.3%, and Pfizer fell 4.7% amid concerns about a possible hit to profits.
Kennedy still needs confirmation from the Senate to get the job, and some analysts are skeptical about his chances.
Biotech stocks broadly sank to some of the market’s worst losses, but the sharpest drop in the S&P 500 came from Applied Materials. It fell 9.2% as it forecast a range of future revenue below analysts’ expectations, even though it reported a stronger-than-anticipated profit for the latest quarter.
Companies face pressure to deliver big growth since their stock prices have been rising so much faster than their earnings. That’s made the stock market look pricey by a range of measures. The S&P 500 is still up 23% for the year and not far from its all-time high set on Monday, despite last week’s weakness.
Stocks had been broadly roaring since Election Day, when Trump’s victory sent a jolt through financial markets worldwide. Investors immediately began sending up stocks of banks, smaller U.S. companies and cryptocurrencies as they laid bets on the winners coming out of Trump’s preference for higher tariffs, lower tax rates and lighter regulation.
Peter Thiel Says Trump's 60% China Tariff Would Be 'Very, Very Bad' For Beijing, Here's What's At Stake
Renowned tech investor and Palantir Technologies’ co-founder Peter Thiel has made a daring prediction about the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
What Happened: On Thursday, during an interview with The Free Press, Thiel suggested that such a tariff would be “very, very bad” for Chinese companies and China as a whole.
However, he believes the impact on American consumers would be “mildly negative” as manufacturing would likely shift away from China.
According to Thiel, shifting manufacturing from China to Vietnam would significantly harm China, and have only a minor impact on American consumers. From a geopolitical perspective, he argued, this move would align closely with American strategic interests.
Why It Matters: Earlier this year, Chinese stocks experienced a notable rally, pushing the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai to its highest point since September 2023.
However, Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could reach as high as 60% on Chinese goods, along with additional import hikes on other nations, could disrupt these investments.
A day after Trump won, China-linked ETFs witnessed a sharp fall after rallying for nearly two months.
| China-linked ETFs | Share Price Drop On Nov. 6, 2024 |
| KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF KWEB | 2.01% |
| iShares MSCI China ETF MCHI | 2.70% |
| iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI | 2.94% |
U.S.-listed Chinese stocks such as Alibaba Group Holding BABA, JD.com JD, Baidu BIDU, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI, and XPeng Inc. XPEV also saw a decline in trading following Trump’s win.
The imposition of such tariffs could strain China’s economic growth, negatively impacting the performance of China-focused ETFs, particularly those tied to the tech sector and large-cap companies, making them less attractive to investors.
Despite the immediate economic challenges that such a tariff would pose, some experts believe that China may view Trump’s return to the White House as an opportunity for strategic advantage.
Earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping also expressed China’s willingness to collaborate with the U.S. government, regardless of the administration in power.
Image via Wikimedia
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Asian Stocks Rise as China Rebounds on Policy Help: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Asian shares edged higher, following a rally in heavyweight Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and gains in Chinese stocks on fresh signs of policy support.
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A key gauge of the region’s equities rose 0.2%, aided by Samsung Electronics’ jump after South Korea’s biggest firm announced a surprise stock buyback plan. Shares in Hong Kong and mainland China also advanced after the country’s securities regulator urged listed companies to boost returns on their stocks.
The brighter mood in Korea and China helped offset weakness in neighboring markets like Japan and Taiwan, where concerns lingered about Donald Trump’s potentially inflationary economic policies and Friday’s upbeat US retail sales data that reduced expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
US stock futures also rose, after the S&P 500 slid 1.3% on Friday to erase more than half of its gains following the US election.
“Investors expect Chinese companies will try their best to boost market cap, fund flows into related stocks,” said Kenny Wen, head of investment strategy at KGI Asia Ltd. “However, it may only provide short term sentiment support as stock prices eventually are determined by fundamentals.”
The Bloomberg dollar index was steady. The yen slipped after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the timing of the central bank’s next policy adjustment will depend on the economy and prices. The BOJ is scheduled to meet on Dec. 18-19.
In corporate news, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is proposing to sell dollar and yuan bonds to pay back offshore debt and buy back shares, following the Chinese tech conglomerate’s issuance of a record convertible bond offering earlier this year.
As for commodities, oil rebounded after a weekly decline on concerns over plentiful supply and weaker demand from top crude importer China. Gold advanced after suffering its worst weekly drop since 2021, as the dollar eased and traders weighed the outlook for Fed rate cuts.
Elsewhere this week, China’s banks are expected to keep their loan prime rates unchanged after a cut in October. Bank Indonesia will deliver a policy decision as the rupiah neared 16,000 per dollar on Friday, a key psychological level for a central bank focused on currency stability.
U.S. News & World Report Reveals the 2025 Best Places to Retire
Naples, Florida, lands No. 1 as new data shakes up the rankings.
WASHINGTON, Nov. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — U.S. News & World Report, the global authority in rankings and consumer advice, today unveiled the 2025 Best Places to Retire in the United States. This year’s rankings evaluated 150 top U.S. cities based on how well they meet American retirees’ expectations, with measures including happiness, affordability, health care, desirability, retiree taxes and job market.
Retirees noted overall happiness of a place’s residents as the top consideration when determining a place to retire this year, helping Naples, Florida, secure the No. 1 rank. Naples also scored high in desirability, retiree taxes and job market.
“The 2025 Best Places to Retire rankings reflect top cities across the country that best meet retiree needs and desires,” says Dawn Bradbury, assistant managing editor for real estate at U.S. News. “What we found this year is retirees seek a destination that will not only stretch their dollar, but is also a place for enjoyment. This is why the Midwest and South dominate the top 25.”
This year, U.S. News adjusted its scoring to make happiness the most heavily weighted of the six factors in the 2025 Best Places to Retire methodology, which also includes indexes for affordability, health care quality, retiree taxes, desirability and job market. Additionally, to further localize metrics that have a direct impact on retirees, U.S. News transitioned from using Metro Statistical Area (MSA) data to city-based data. These changes resulted in top-10 appearances from Virginia Beach, Virginia (No. 2), Boise, Idaho (No. 5), Raleigh, North Carolina (No. 6), Jacksonville, Florida (No. 7), Huntsville, Alabama (No. 8), Charlotte, North Carolina (No. 9) and Fort Wayne, Indiana (No. 10).
“U.S. News’ rankings are consistently evolving to meet consumer needs,” Bradbury added. “This year’s shift from Metro Statistical Area data to city-based data enables the consumer to consider factors that will directly impact the livability and overall experiences associated with a city on a more local level.”
The six measures factored into this year’s rankings were weighted based on a public survey of individuals across the U.S. who are at or approaching retirement age (45 and older) to find out what matters most to people when they’re considering where to retire. Data sources include the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Risk Index, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sharecare and U.S. News’ Best Hospitals rankings.
Best Places to Retire is part of U.S. News’ expanding Real Estate section, which provides rankings, tools and advice to help individuals navigate the housing market, from finding the right neighborhood and home value estimates to working with an agent and buying and selling a home.
2025 U.S. News Best Places to Retire – Top 10
*See the full rankings here.
1. Naples, Florida
2. Virginia Beach, Virginia
3. New York City, New York
4. Sarasota, Florida
5. Boise, Idaho
6. Raleigh, North Carolina
7. Jacksonville, Florida
8. Huntsville, Alabama
9. Charlotte, North Carolina
10. Fort Wayne, Indiana
For more information on Best Places to Retire, explore Facebook and social platform X using #BestPlacesToRetire.
About U.S. News & World Report
U.S. News & World Report is the global leader for journalism that empowers consumers, citizens, business leaders and policy officials to make confident decisions in all aspects of their lives and communities. A multifaceted media company, U.S. News provides unbiased rankings, independent reporting and analysis, and consumer advice to millions of people on USNews.com each month. A pillar in Washington for more than 90 years, U.S. News is the trusted home for in-depth and exclusive insights on education, health, politics, the economy, personal finance, travel, automobiles, real estate, careers and consumer products and services.
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SOURCE U.S. News & World Report, L.P.
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