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VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 29, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — According to the latest BC Check-Up: Work report, an annual release by the Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia (CPABC) examining employment trends across the province, B.C.’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.0 per cent in September 2024, up from 5.5 per cent one year earlier.

“The B.C. labour market has continued to soften in 2024, leading to a three-year peak in the unemployment rate,” said Lori Mathison, FCPA, FCGA, LLB, president and CEO of CPABC. “This softening in the job market is occurring at the same time as significant population growth.”

Employment growth in B.C. was effectively flat on a year-over-year basis in September, with a 50,200-worker contraction between April and September 2024. For the full year, the province’s workforce increased by just 9,000 (+0.3 per cent) people compared to an increase in the working-age population of 156,700 people (+3.4 per cent) between September 2023 and September 2024.

As of July 2024, the latest month that data is available, B.C.’s job vacancy rate was 3.6 per cent matching a seven-year low that was first recorded in June. Employers were actively recruiting for just over 90,000 unfilled positions, down 22.0 per cent from the 115,700 vacancies recorded in July 2023.

Falling labour demand has also had an impact on labour compensation, as average wages grew by only 3.3 per cent in September, when compared to September 2023. By comparison, average wages were still growing at a strong 6.5 per cent when employment peaked in April 2024.

“This weakening of the job market is a stark contrast from where we were last year, or even just a few months ago,” noted Mathison. That said, it is important to recognize that the job market varies by region within BC, with some regions seeing much more strength.   

The report also noted employment changes by sector over the longer term. As of September 2024, the private sector in B.C. was comprised of just under 1.8 million employees and 443,100 self-employed individuals; that represents growth of 0.9 per cent since before the pandemic in February 2020. In contrast, the public sector grew by 29.2 per cent relative to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

“Nearly all employment growth has come from the public sector, as we’ve seen dramatic increases in hiring for health care, education, and public administration over the last five years,” concluded Mathison. “Looking ahead, policymakers should prioritize initiatives that encourage greater private sector investment in the province in order to spur job growth and create more opportunities for British Columbians.”

To learn more, see www.bccheckup.com.

About CPA British Columbia

The Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia (CPABC) is the training, governing, and regulatory body for over 40,000 CPA members and 6,000 CPA candidates and students. CPABC carries out its primary mission to protect the public by enforcing the highest professional and ethical standards and contributing to the advancement of public policy.

CPABC Media Contact:
Jack Blackwell, Economist
604.259.1143
news@bccpa.ca

Wall Street took a breather on Tuesday, with most major indices treading water, while tech stocks saw gains as investors braced for earnings reports from mega-cap companies.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%, buoyed by anticipation around upcoming earnings from Alphabet Inc. GOOGLGOOG and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, both set to report after market close.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 was largely unchanged, the Dow Jones dipped slightly, and small-cap stocks underperformed.

In economic news, U.S. job openings dropped by 418,000 to 7.443 million in September 2024 — marking the lowest level since January 2021 and falling short of the market’s expectation of 7.99 million.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index surged, posting its largest monthly gain since March 2021. This suggests that while labor demand may be slowing, consumer sentiment remains robust.

Treasury yields continued to climb during concerns over the U.S. budget deficit and political uncertainty ahead of next week’s elections. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 4.33%, the highest level since early July.

Notably, gold prices remained resilient, with the precious metal breaking above the all-time high of $2,770 per ounce as investors sought a hard asset amid fiscal concerns.

The crypto market also saw notable gains. Bitcoin BTC/USD rose nearly 4% to reach $72,700, nearing its record high of $73,697 set in March. Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) continued its momentum with a 10% rally on Tuesday, following an 11% surge on Monday.

According to Benzinga Pro data:

• The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY inched 0.1% higher to $581.48.
• The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA dipped 0.3% to $422.93.
• The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series QQQ rose 0.7% to $498.73.
• The iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM fell 0.7% to $221.01.
• The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK outperformed, up by 1.1%. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund XLU lagged, down 1.7%.

Stocks reacting to earnings reports included:

• McDonalds Corp. MCD, down 0.4%,
• Pfizer Inc. PFE, down 1.7%,
• PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL, down over 4%,
• Ecolab Inc. ECL, down 1%,
• Enterprise Product Partner L.P. EPD down 0.3%,
• Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL up 3.5%,
• D.R. Horton DHI, down 8.6%,
• Phillips 66 PSX, down 3.9%,
• MSCI Inc. MSCI, down 1.5%,
• Corning Inc. GLW, up 7.8%,
• Ford Motor Co. F, down 8%,
• SoFi Technologies Inc. SOFI, down 6.3%,
• Incyte Corp. SWK, up 9.4%

Among large-cap companies slated to report earnings after the close are Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, Visa Inc. V, Stryker Corp. SYK, Chubb Ltd. CB, Mondelez International Inc. MDLZ, Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG and Electronic Arts Inc. EA.

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Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy soared in October, marking the strongest month-over-month increase since March 2021, according to the Conference Board’s latest report.

The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 108.7, up significantly from 99.2 in September and well above economist expectations of 99.5, as tracked by TradingEconomics.

Confidence Index Rises, Driven By Broader Optimism

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, a key gauge of economic sentiment, rose by nearly 10 points in October to reach 108.7. This increase was fueled by improvements across both major components of the index.

The Present Situation Index rose from 123.8 in September to 138.0 in October, as consumers viewed current business and labor market conditions more favorably.

The Expectations Index increased from 82.8 to 89.1, moving further away from the recession-warning threshold of 80.

Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, highlighted the significance of October’s gains, stating, “Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years.”

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Labor Market Sentiment And Business Conditions Improve

In October, more consumers reported positive views on both business conditions and job availability. The survey found:

• 21.4% of respondents described business conditions as “good,” up from 18.6% in September.
• Those viewing conditions as “bad” decreased to 16.4% from 20.5% the previous month.

Labor market sentiment also showed noticeable improvement:

• 35.1% of consumers reported that jobs were “plentiful,” up from 31.3% in September.
• The share describing jobs as “hard to get” dropped to 16.8% from 18.6%.

According to Peterson, “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data.”

Optimism About Future Economic Prospects Gains Traction

October’s confidence gains were broad-based, with optimism evident across all age groups and most income levels.

Consumers aged 35-54 saw the sharpest rise in confidence, while households earning over $100,000 remained the most optimistic on a six-month moving average basis.

Peterson highlighted a notable shift in consumer sentiment around recession risks, stating, “The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022.”

Mixed Signals On Inflation, Interest Rates, Strong Sentiment On Stocks

Despite signs of easing inflation, consumer expectations for price increases in the year ahead nudged slightly higher.

Average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 5.3% in October from 5.2% in September. This increase could reflect persistent pressures on food and services prices, even as gas prices and overall inflation have slowed.

Consumers were also cautious about interest rates:

• 47.5% of respondents expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 months, reversing a four-month decline in rate hike expectations.
• The share anticipating lower rates dropped to 30.3%.

Meanwhile, “consumers became more upbeat about the stock market: 51.4% of consumers expected stock prices “to increase over the year ahead, the highest reading since the question was first asked in 1987,” the Conference Board wrote.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY — closed 0.2% higher, hovering at a less than one percentage point distance from its record highs set earlier this month.

Political Concerns Fade as Economic Issues Dominate

Interestingly, October’s survey showed a decline in consumer concerns around politics, even as the November elections approach.

“Election” ranked fifth among top concerns, trailing behind issues like prices, inflation, food, and groceries. This marks a stark contrast to previous election years; in October 2016, “election” was the most mentioned topic, and in October 2020, it was second only to COVID.

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