Options traders tracked by Bloomberg anticipate Nvidia (NVDA) shares could move as much as 7.4% in either direction following the AI chipmaker’s quarterly earnings report on May 28. This projected swing is lower than the 11.3% average intraday move seen after the company’s earnings over the past eight quarters, suggesting traders expect reduced volatility this time.
In February, Nvidia’s shares dropped 8.5% even after beating fourth-quarter earnings expectations, as its first-quarter gross margin outlook fell short of estimates. The stock traded in an 11.4% range the day after, swinging between a 2.8% gain and an 8.6% loss.
While the 7.4% forecasted move could signal a similar gain or loss, it also allows for various scenarios—for instance, a 5.4% gain and a 2% drop, or a 4% decline paired with a 3.4% increase.
Despite recent volatility, Nvidia has delivered strong long-term returns. According to Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre, investors who bought Nvidia shares before earnings and held them for a year saw a median return of nearly 120% over the past decade.
The upcoming earnings come amid a challenging backdrop. Nvidia’s stock faced pressure early in 2025 due to competitive threats like a low-cost AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek and growing concerns over a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending. These fears were exacerbated by potential pullbacks in AI data center investments from major customer Microsoft (MSFT), alongside shifting trade policies and developments in China’s AI sector.
Investors will also be eager to see the impact of Trump’s ban on Nvidia’s chip sales to China in next week’s results — a policy CEO Jensen Huang said has cost the company $15 billion in sales.
Wall Street analysts are anticipating Nvidia to report soaring earnings and revenue for its fiscal 2026 first quarter (the April quarter), though they expect its growth to continue decelerating.
Nvidia’s last earnings report, released on February 26, 2025, showed strong performance, exceeding expectations with record revenue and earnings. Revenue reached $39.3 billion, up 78% year-over-year and 12% sequentially. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.89, beating analyst estimates. The company’s data center segment experienced significant growth, with revenue of $35.6 billion, up 93% year-over-year.
For fiscal 2025, revenue was $130.5 billion, up 114% from a year ago. GAAP earnings per diluted share was $2.94, up 147% from a year ago. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $2.99, up 130% from a year ago.
“Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law — increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.
“We’ve successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter. AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries.”
The company recently announced that it would supply semiconductors to Saudi Arabian AI startup Humain. As part of the partnership with Humain, which CEO Jensen Huang reportedly announced on stage at an event in Riyadh, the company said it will deploy “several hundred thousand” of Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs over the next five years, starting with an 18,000 GB300 Grace Blackwell AI supercomputer with Nvidia’s InfiniBand networking technology.
The announcement was made as part of a White House-led trip to the region that included President Donald Trump and other top CEOs.
The cutting-edge Blackwell chips will be used in data centers totaling 500 megawatts in Saudi Arabia, according to remarks at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh on Tuesday. Nvidia said its first deployment will use its GB300 Blackwell chips, which are among Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips at the moment, and which were only officially announced earlier this year.
“I am so delighted to be here to help celebrate the grand opening, the beginning of Humain,” Huang said. “It is an incredible vision, indeed, that Saudi Arabia should build the AI infrastructure of your nation so that you could participate and help shape the future of this incredibly transformative technology.”
Humain’s plans eventually include deploying “several hundred thousand” Nvidia graphics processing units.
“Saudi Arabia is rich with energy, transforming the energy through this giant versions of these Nvidia AI supercomputers, which are essentially AI factories,” Huang said.
AMD said on Tuesday that it would also supply chips to Humain as part of a deal to build 500 megawatts of AI capacity. AMD said that Humain has committed $10 billion to the project.
Earlier this year the Department of Commerce said that it was going to scrap what it called President Joe Biden’s rule, and implement a “much simpler rule.” Nvidia has also been required to seek an export license for its AI chips since 2023 because of national security concerns.
Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes reiterated his buy rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of $150. “We still are big believers in the AI theme and Nvidia’s leadership in the trend,” Reitzes said in a client note. “Nvidia has significant tailwinds from inferencing and a clear line of sight on hyperscaler orders through year-end.”
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