OPEC+ is weighing a faster ramp-up in oil production than previously anticipated, delegates said ahead of a virtual meeting on Saturday.
Saudi Arabia has steered the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries toward boosting supplies by 411,000 barrels per day over the past three months. Now, the group is evaluating a larger increase in August.
The bold move, aimed at regaining market share from non-OPEC+ producers, comes despite the potential risk of oversaturating the market — a scenario that could drive prices lower. A recent drop in oil prices marks a political win for President Donald Trump, who favors cheaper fuel as a way to ease pressure on inflation-strained consumers.
According to one delegate, eight key members of the alliance are discussing an increase of more than 500,000 barrels per day. Another added that such a move could complete the group’s planned return of 2.2 million barrels per day of previously withheld output by September — ahead of schedule. Both asked not to be named due to the private nature of the talks.
On Friday, Brent crude hovered near $68 a barrel in London, down 13% over the past two weeks. The shift from active conflict between Israel and Iran to a tentative ceasefire has kept most Middle Eastern oil shipments unaffected.
“With OPEC+ having pivoted to a market share over a price defence strategy, it may be pointless to keep a notional voluntary cut in place,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group. “It could be best to get it over faster, and simply move on.”
Since April, OPEC and its partners have shifted from years of production restraint to increasing output — surprising crude markets and raising questions about the group’s evolving strategy. Saturday’s meeting was moved up by a day due to scheduling issues.
Delegates say the decision is motivated by several factors: peak summer demand, curbing excess production from some members, and competing with producers like U.S. shale. Riyadh, in particular, is keen to restore idle capacity quickly.
The extra supply could be welcomed by President Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower oil prices to support the U.S. economy and curb inflation — while pressing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Still, this strategy risks expanding an already growing surplus, potentially forcing prices down to levels that could hurt producers.
Global inventories have been increasing by about 1 million barrels per day in recent months, amid slowing demand in China and rising output across the Americas — including the U.S., Guyana, Canada, and Brazil.
The International Energy Agency forecasts a notable surplus later this year. Meanwhile, Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. project prices could fall to $60 a barrel — or lower — by the fourth quarter.
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts