Pfizer Is Facing A First-Quarter Slowdown. Is Pfizer Stock Now A Sell?

For the first quarter, which ends this month, analysts expect the Big Pharma stalwart to report $1.22 billion in sales of oral Covid treatment. But sales would fall nearly 40% year over year. That would come alongside $358 million in sales of the BioNTech (BNTX)-partnered Covid vaccine, Comirnaty. Sales would inched ahead just 1%.

Also, on a bearish note, Pfizer and its partner, Arvinas (ARVN), reported mixed results for their breast cancer treatment, a drug that degrades the cancer-tied hormone estrogen. While Arvinas stock plummeted almost 53%, Pfizer stock lost more than 2%.

On a more promising note, Pfizer's drugs Talzenna and Xtandi improved the median overall survival rate in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer by almost nine months. In patients with a specific genetic mutation the combination extended overall survival by 14 months. Overall survival is how long patients live before dying of any cause.

The Food and Drug Administration also approved a combination using Pfizer's Padcev for a form of lymphoma. Plus, Padcev on top of  Merck's (MRK) Keytruda showed promise as a treatment in previously untreated patients with advanced or metastatic bladder cancer.

But there are moving pieces in 2025 that could challenge Pfizer stock. The Senate confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy is a well-known vaccine skeptic. Pfizer is also facing off with an activist investor called Starboard Value.

Further, Pfizer's efforts to develop a weight-loss drug have been straddled with numerous setbacks.

So, is Pfizer stock a sell today?

Pfizer Stock Fundamentals

In the December quarter, Pfizer's sales jumped 21% to $17.76 billion. Excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid sales, total revenue rose a more moderate 11%. Pfizer also earned an adjusted 63 cents per share, rocking from a year-earlier gain of 10 cents.

Both measures beat expectations.

Sales of blood thinner Eliquis, heart drug Vyndaqel and cancer treatment Padcev topped forecasts, Edward Jones analyst John Boylan said in a report. This helped offset weaker sales of respiratory syncytial virus vaccine Abrysvo after the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices changed its recommendations for RSV shots.

"This was a good quarter that did not offer any surprises, which we view as a positive and hopefully helps investors focus beyond Covid-19 products," Boylan said in a client note.

For the first quarter, analysts project earnings of 71 cents per share on $14.47 billion in sales. Earnings would tumbled more than 13% as sales fall almost 3%.

Pfizer also reiterated its guidance for $61 billion to $64 billion in sales this year.

Obesity Treatments In Focus

Investors have zeroed in on Pfizer's efforts in obesity treatment. That drug, called danuglipron, is a once-daily pill that mimics the action of GLP-1, a hormone tied to satiety and blood sugar markers.

Pfizer is also testing a second GLP-1 drug and, in its third-quarter earnings, outlined plans to study a drug that blocks the activity of the GIP receptor. This differs from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), which have drugs that mimic both GLP-1 and GIPR.

Amgen (AMGN) is the closest competitor with a drug that mimics GLP-1 and blocks GIPR. But Amgen is testing a monthly shot, while Pfizer's approach would be a daily pill.

The field for oral weight-loss drugs is becoming increasingly crowded. Roche (RHHBY), Viking, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) and AstraZeneca (AZN) are in this space. Merck (MRK), on Dec. 18, announced a deal worth up to $2.01 billion to license an experimental weight-loss drug from China's Hansoh Pharma.

Pfizer Stock And The Starboard Fight

Starboard says Pfizer has lost between $20 billion and $60 billion in market value over the last five years.

The investor argues Pfizer's research and development, as well as returns on that R&D, have contributed to its downfall. Starboard also says Pfizer has made poor capital allocation decisions and its forecasting/budgeting have left something to be desired.

Early in the battle, the investor said it reached out to Ian Read and Frank D'Amelio as part of its due diligence. Read is the former chief executive, while D'Amelio was the company's chief financial officer.

Read and D'Amelio shared Starboard's concerns, the investor said in a letter to the board on Oct. 10. But the duo have since flipped their stance, saying they are "fully supportive" of Albert Bourla, the sitting CEO. Read handpicked Bourla as his successor. Starboard, though, says it believes Pfizer pressured Read and D'Amelio into changing their tune on Pfizer's trajectory.

On Nov. 20, Pfizer named its oncology chief, Chris Boshoff, to its chief scientific officer role. The current CSO, Mikael Dolsten, announced his departure in July. Jeff Jonas, of Gabelli Funds, says Starboard likely would have preferred an outside hire.

But the deadline to nominate members to the board passed by in late January without a word from Starboard.

Technical Analysis: PFE Stock Is Below Its 50-Day Line

Pfizer stock is now trading below its 200-day moving average and in line with its 50-day moving average.

(Related: Keep tabs on chart patterns by visiting IBD's MarketSurge.)

Pfizer stock has an IBD Digital Composite Rating of 81 out of a best-possible 99. The CR is a measure of a stock's fundamental and technical measures. Shares also have a Relative Strength Rating of 35, a measure of 12-month performance.

Is PFE Stock A Sell?

Pfizer stock isn't a sell today. But it also isn't a buy. Shares are trading in line with their 50-day moving average. A break above that line would be promising, but not enough to classify Pfizer stock a buy. Shares also aren't forming a base for investors to watch.

Pfizer still has to prove its fundamental and technical merit. And it will have to do that while facing off with Starboard and Kennedy as the HHS secretary.

To find the best stocks to buy and watch, check out IBD Stock Lists. Make sure to also keep tabs on stocks to buy or sell.

Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.

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