Prediction: This Relentless Vanguard ETF Will Crush the S&P 500 Again in 2025
2024.12.10
The stock market is on an absolute tear this year. The benchmark S&P 500 is up by 29%, which is almost triple its average annual gain dating back to when it was established in 1957.
However, if you had invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF(NYSEMKT: VOOG), you would be sitting on an even bigger gain of 38% in 2024. This exchange-traded fund (ETF) directly tracks the performance of the S&P 500 GrowthIndex, which only holds the top-performing stocks from the original S&P 500, and disregards the rest.
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That means the Growth Index will assign a much higher weighting to powerhouse stocks like Nvidia, which has led to far better returns. Here's why I predict the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF will crush the S&P 500 yet again in 2025.
Image source: Getty Images.
The S&P 500 Growth Index holds around 233 stocks out of the 500 in the S&P 500. It selects them based on factors like their momentum, and the sales growth of the underlying companies. Nvidia is a great example of the type of stock investors will find near the top of the Growth Index. It's up by almost 200% in 2024, and it's on track to grow its revenue by 111% in its current fiscal year.
Technology stocks in general are carrying significant momentum right now, thanks partly to an incredible tailwind from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. That's why the sector currently accounts for 49.7% of the Growth Index, compared to just 31.7% of the S&P 500.
In fact, the top three holdings in the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF are from the tech sector, and they alone represent 35.3% of the value of its entire portfolio. Amazon, which is in the consumer discretionary sector, and Meta Platforms, which is in the communication services sector, round out the top five.
Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of Oct. 31, 2024, and are subject to change.
The above five stocks have delivered an average return of 70.8% this year so far. Since the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF assigns them a much higher weighting than does the S&P 500, it's no surprise that it's outperforming.
Nvidia is the leading supplier of graphics processing units (GPUs) for data centers, which are used to develop AI. The company just started shipping its latest Blackwell chips, which are the most powerful in the industry right now, so its stock is likely to have another strong year in 2025.
Apple could also have a strong year as it continues to roll out its new Apple Intelligence software for the latest iPhones, iPads, and Mac computers. It introduces a suite of AI tools that help users prioritize notifications, and streamline activities like reading and writing emails and text messages. Apple's Siri voice assistant will also lean on the capabilities of OpenAI's ChatGPT to deliver an upgraded user experience.
Next year, Microsoft and Amazon will continue building new data center infrastructure fitted with the latest chips, as AI developers demand more computing power than ever before. Meta Platforms will also build more infrastructure, because it plans to launch its Llama 4 large language model (LLM) in 2025, which could be the most advanced AI model in the industry.
The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF has a solid track record of crushing the S&P 500, so its outperformance this year is nothing out of the ordinary. It has delivered a compound annual return of 16.4% since it was established in 2010, beating the 13.7% average annual return in the S&P 500 over the same period.
That 2.7-percentage-point difference might not sound like much, but it has a big effect in dollar terms thanks to the magic of compounding.
Starting Balance (2010)
Compound Annual Return
Balance In 2024
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
$10,000
16.4%
$83,818
S&P 500
$10,000
13.7%
$60,345
Calculations by author.
For the reasons I highlighted earlier relating to AI, I think most of the top stocks in the Vanguard ETF will have another strong year in 2025. Therefore, there's a good chance it will continue outperforming the S&P 500.
The only time it might fare worse is in the event of a market crash, because high-flying tech stocks will probably fall much harder than the rest of the S&P 500. Dividend stocks might outperform in that instance, which will support the S&P 500, whereas the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF doesn't have as much exposure to those safer stocks.
With that said, the odds are definitely in favor of growth stocks. The chart below shows that the S&P 500 High Dividend Index has rarely come close to matching the performance of the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF over the last 10 years.
As a result, I think the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF is a safe bet to beat the S&P 500 yet again in 2025.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
