Tesla (TSLA) is poised to report another difficult quarter for electric vehicle deliveries, as CEO Elon Musk places a growing emphasis on artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technology. While investors await the official Q2 numbers, many are increasingly focused on the company’s robotaxi program as its next big catalyst.
For the second quarter, Tesla is expected to report global deliveries of 395,328, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates—an 11% decline year over year. That’s still a marked improvement from Q1’s 336,700 deliveries. Global production is expected to hit 443,321, up from 410,800 in Q2 last year.
The drop in deliveries comes despite the rollout of a refreshed Model Y SUV, which was anticipated to lift sales. But disappointing figures in Q2 are no surprise for those closely watching Tesla’s recent performance.
Tesla EV registrations in Europe dropped 27.9% in May from a year ago, per the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). At the same time, overall EV registrations in the region (including the UK and EFTA nations) rose 25%, while total auto registrations dipped 0.6%. This marks five consecutive months of falling Tesla sales in Europe, with year-to-date deliveries through May down 37.1% to 75,196 units.
The U.S. tells a similar story. According to S&P Global Mobility data via Automotive News, Tesla’s April EV registrations fell 16% to 39,913. Meanwhile, GM’s Chevrolet brand surged 215%, taking the second spot in the U.S. EV market. Ford (F) fell to third after a 33% drop in EV sales.
Given these figures, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan wrote last week, “Tesla’s fundamentals are coming in worse than expected.” The bank forecasts a 21% decline in Q2 deliveries compared to a year ago, estimating 343,000 units—well below consensus.
Demand weakness in the U.S. and Europe comes amid growing discontent with Musk’s political alignment. Some Tesla owners have expressed frustration over Musk’s rightward political tilt, support of European right-wing leaders, and his controversial role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration. Although Musk has recently turned more attention back to Tesla, some fear the damage to the brand could be lasting.
Meanwhile, robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas, could represent a major narrative shift. Though the program launched smoothly, videos have emerged showing Tesla robotaxis speeding, misusing turn lanes, and crossing double-yellow lines. Regulators say they’re monitoring the situation. Still, expansion of the pilot is seen as a positive step in Musk’s pursuit of autonomy and AI-driven transport.
“As Musk continues to tout the potential trillions in value from self-driving and AI,” investors are left to weigh whether these moonshot projects can offset the troubling slowdown in Tesla’s core auto business.
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts