The Bull Market in US Stocks Is Just Starting, Evercore Says

(Bloomberg) — The US stocks rally is nowhere near done, according to Evercore ISI strategists, who see Donald Trump’s plans to slice through red tape propelling the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) another 11% through the middle of next year.

Most Read from Bloomberg

History shows the bull market is “still an infant,” Julian Emanuel wrote in a note. “This market will be driven higher by the policy prospect of deregulation in DC,” he said, setting a price target for the index of 6,600 points by end-June 2025.

In the past 100 years, the benchmark gauge has averaged a 152% gain over 50 months during bull markets, research by Emanuel’s team shows. In the latest case, the index has rallied 65% since hitting a low in October 2022, with technology heavyweights driving the bulk of the advance.

And though stock valuations already look lofty, “expensive has a history of getting more expensive and lasting longer with greater gains,” Emanuel said.

The S&P 500 surged to a record on Wednesday after Trump’s presidential win as his plans for loser regulation and lower corporate taxes were seen boosting company earnings. The Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) of small-cap stocks hit a three-year high on speculation those firms will benefit more from Trump’s protectionist stance.

Seasonal trends into the year end also bode well for stocks more broadly. The S&P 500 has gained an average 4.1% in the fourth quarter in the past 20 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — among the most notable bearish voices on US stocks last year — said this week that the benchmark can keep climbing into the final stretch of the year.

—With assistance from Cristin Flanagan.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.