June 23rd, 2025
U.S. stocks rose on Monday as investors showed little concern over escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Also, a pullback in oil prices has helped calm market nerves for now. Crude oil is still up over 20% in the last month and may head higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) inched up 0.3%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way with a 0.6% gain, buoyed by renewed optimism around monetary policy.
Economic Takeaways:
- The S&P 500 index fell three straight days.
- As of late Friday, only 48.4% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages, down from 53.8% the week before.
- Trump said late Saturday that the US had struck Iran’s three main nuclear enrichment facilities, saying the sites had been “totally obliterated.” After the bombings, oil futures surged and gold ticked higher.
- Brent crude futures traded above $76 a barrel while WTI crude futures hovered near $73. Oil futures were little changed on Monday after spiking more than 5% on Sunday.
- The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) advanced 0.6% and has risen 6% in the past month.
- Spot gold climbed 0.2% over the weekend to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high.
- Iran threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil products flow. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) have called a blockage there a “worst-case scenario” and suggested the result could be global oil prices reaching $120 a barrel and pushing inflation in the US to 5%.
- Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman now supports a rate cut “as soon” as July.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) dipped nearly 2% ahead of Wall Street’s open Monday.
President Trump Urges for Low Oil Prices
President Donald Trump called on energy producers to hold down oil prices after U.S. military strikes on Iran sent prices climbing, stoking concerns of a broader Middle East conflict. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” Trump wrote Monday on social media.
In a follow-up post, he directed the Energy Department to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” Energy Secretary Chris Wright replied on X, saying, “we’re on it.”
Iran has issued a warning that Trump’s decision to support Israel’s military campaign by striking its three primary nuclear sites would provoke retaliation. Tehran may move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint at the entrance to the Persian Gulf that handles roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
Tesla’s Anticipated RoboTaxi Has Launched
Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian has reported that several users on X claimed they were able to hail and ride some of the 10-20 Tesla Model Y vehicles available, which featured “Robotaxi” graphics on the sides of the cars.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk had announced the rollout on X on Sunday, saying that customers will pay a flat $4.20 fee. Only select invited Tesla users were invited to test the robotaxi service.
Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote in a note: “We took two approximately 15 minute rides around Austin and the key takeaways are that it was a comfortable, safe, and personalized experience.”
Cybersecurity Stocks Take Spotlight
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients on Monday that he expects cybersecurity stocks to be in focus following the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. The analyst wrote that “cyber security stocks in particular [are] set to be front and center this week as investors anticipate some cyber attacks from Iran could be on the horizon as retaliation.”
“On the cyber security sector, our favorite names remain Palo Alto (PANW), Cyberark (CYBR), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), and Checkpoint (CHKP).
Defense Stocks Could Move Higher
Jefferies (JEF) analyst Mohit Kumar wrote Monday, “Market is now waiting to see how Iran reacts …However, we are not fully convinced around the market’s sanguine reaction.”
“Defence has been one area that we have been bullish on, and we continue to maintain our overweight exposure,” he added. “NATO countries have moved to increase defense spending with a long term goal of taking to 5% of GDP. We are typically skeptical of long term goals as goal posts do change, but it is also clear to us that defense spending needs to increase globally and not just for NATO countries.”
On the Move
- Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) slipped as much as 3% Monday morning after the company, led by Michael Saylor, revealed yet another bitcoin acquisition.
- Tesla stock (TSLA) climbed 5% in early trading Monday following the launch of its long-awaited robotaxi program on Sunday in Austin, Texas.
- Trump Media & Technology (DJT) shares gained 4% in premarket trading Monday after the company unveiled a $400 million stock buyback plan.
- Defense stocks were heading higher. Palantir (PLTR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) rose less than 1%, while RTX (RTX) climbed 1.3%.
- Energy stocks advanced including Exxon Mobil (XOM) which gained 1.7%, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) which rose 2.3%, Chevron (CVX) which rose 1.4%, Houston American Energy (HUSA) which gained 36%, and Indonesia Energy Corp. (INDO) which gained 18%.
- Kroger (KR) shares pulled back early Monday after a more than 9% surge Friday driven by a strong earnings report. The grocery giant reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook and raised its full-year forecast for non-fuel comparable sales to a range of 2.25% to 3.25%, up from the prior 2% to 3%.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) gained another 6% early Monday, continuing Friday’s momentum, when it jumped nearly 23%. Coinbase (COIN) also rose 3% on Friday. The gains followed the Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act, a major stablecoin regulation bill, in a 68-30 bipartisan vote. COIN and Strategy (MSTR) declined Monday as crypto investors remained focused on geopolitical risks.
- AppLovin (APP) slipped 0.5% after a more than 5% drop Friday, despite no significant news driving the move.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 4.6% premarket following news of a planned $2 billion convertible senior note offering.
- Exelixis (EXEL) surged nearly 22% ahead of the open on the back of positive Phase 3 trial results for a cancer treatment.
- Him & Hers Health (HIMS) plunged 16% premarket after a Reuters report indicated Novo Nordisk (NVO) may end its weight loss drug partnership with the company. Novo shares dropped 5.5%.
- Northern Trust (NTRS) jumped 5.5% after The Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of New York Mellon (BK) had approached the firm to discuss a potential merger.
What’s Ahead
FedEx (FDX) will be reporting its earnings tomorrow morning. May consumer confidence data will also be out and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee.
On Wednesday we can look forward to May new home sales, as well as earnings from Micron (MU), General Mills (GIS), and Paychex (PAYX).
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