June 24th, 2025
U.S. stocks surged Tuesday after President Trump urged Israel to pause its strikes on Iran, fueling optimism that a fragile, U.S.-brokered ceasefire could hold and pave the way for a more lasting resolution to the conflict. Technology and financial stocks are leading the gains, while energy and consumer staples sectors are lagging behind.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed about 0.7%, or roughly 300 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also rose 0.7%. Leading the gains, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped around 1%.
Markets have been staging a relief rally on hopes that the 12-day-old conflict—which has raised fears of oil supply disruptions and broader war—might soon deescalate. On Monday, stocks advanced after Iran’s restrained response to U.S. strikes suggested an effort to dial down tensions.
Overnight, Asian markets mostly finished higher, and European markets also saw gains. The U.S. dollar is weakening against major global currencies.
Economic Takeaways:
- Brent fell more than 3% to around $69.15 a barrel in early trading on Tuesday, following a drop of more than 7% on Monday.
- Bond yields have dropped, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.33%, down from its May peak near 4.60%.
- In commodities, WTI oil continues to decline following President Trump’s remarks that China can purchase oil from Iran, a move that could help ease regional tensions. Global oil prices have now fallen below levels seen when Israel first launched airstrikes against Iran on June 12.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index fell 0.3% month-over-month in April, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, the index’s growth slowed to 3.4%, down from 4.1% the previous month.
- The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 93.0 in June, falling short of forecasts that projected a reading of 99.0. Concerns about future business conditions and employment weighed heavily on sentiment. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months eased slightly to 6.0%, down from 6.2% in May, influenced by rising prices of household essentials and anticipated tariff impacts, according to written responses.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) climbed 2% early Tuesday amid easing geopolitical tensions.
President Trump Tells Israel to Halt Strikes on Iran
On Tuesday, President Trump declared that the pause in hostilities had begun. At the same time, Israel confirmed it had accepted a U.S.-brokered truce, which Trump had announced late Monday.
But hours later Israel accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, claiming it had detected missile launches from Iranian territory and vowed to respond with force. Tehran, for its part, denied carrying out any strikes.
In a social media post, Trump urged Israel to halt its assault: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” He later added that Israel is “not going to attack Iran,” saying its aircraft would turn back, while also expressing public frustration with both nations.
Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer wrote on Tuesday’s Morning Brief:
Rising tensions in the Middle East haven’t shaken the stock market yet. Since Israel’s missile strike on Iran on June 13, the S&P 500 is essentially flat. This includes a 1.0% rise on Monday in the immediate reaction to the US strikes on Iran from June 21 and Iran’s subsequent retaliation. Futures tied to the major US stock indexes pointed higher on Tuesday too, amid hopes that a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran could lay the groundwork for a more permanent end to hostilities.
Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson analyzed more than 20 geopolitical shocks that have hit markets since 1950. On average, the S&P 500 was up 2% the month after geopolitical tensions spooked markets, 3% over the next three months, and 9% over the next 12 months, per Wilson’s work.
“History suggests most geopolitically-led sell-offs are short-lived/modest,” Wilson wrote. “Oil prices will determine whether volatility persists.”
Consumer Confidence Slipped in June
Consumer confidence declined in June, giving back some of the gains seen the previous month, which had been boosted by President Trump’s various tariff delays.
The Conference Board’s latest index reading came in at 93 for June, down from 98.4 in May and below the 99.8 forecast by economists. The expectations index, which had seen its biggest one-month jump since May 2009 in May, also dropped—falling to 69 from 73.6.
“Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board. “Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June.”
Nvidia CEO Huang Offloads Stock Under $865M Plan
Jensen Huang has begun selling Nvidia (NVDA) shares as part of a plan that could allow the CEO to unload up to $835 million worth of stock by year’s end.
Nvidia shares edged higher in premarket trading, lifted in part by broader market gains tied to optimism over easing Middle East tensions. Bloomberg reports:
Huang disposed of 100,000 shares over a two-day period—June 20 and June 23—for $14.4 million, according to a Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Huang’s sales are part of a new 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in March and disclosed in Nvidia’s latest quarterly report. …
The pre-arranged plan, a common strategy among executives and billionaires looking to sell stock without alarming investors, allows Huang to offload up to 6 million shares by the end of the year. At Monday’s closing price of $144.17, that stake would be worth $865 million. A separate filing on Monday indicates Huang plans to sell another 50,000 shares in the near term.
On the Move
- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares inched up 0.4% in premarket trading Tuesday, following a steep 35% drop the day before.
- Hot on the heels of Tesla (TSLA), Waymo announced Tuesday that it is launching its robotaxi service in Atlanta through a partnership with Uber (UBER).
- According to Bloomberg, Apple is holding internal sessions about potentially making a bid for Perplexity AI.
- Meta (META) is doubling down on expanding its AI capabilities, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly reaching out to “hundreds” of AI scientists, researchers, and engineers. According to The Wall Street Journal, Zuckerberg is enticing talent with the vision of a “superintelligence lab” and substantial financial incentives—some offers reportedly reaching as high as $100 million. Known for its aggressive acquisition strategy, Meta is also eyeing a potential bid for Perplexity, increasing the pressure on the more cautious Apple to move quickly.
- Tesla (TSLA) gained another 2.3% in early trading Tuesday, building on an 8% jump the day before, as attention stays on the launch of its robotaxi service.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) slipped 3.4% in early trading but remains up over 200% since its IPO, fueled by growing interest in stablecoins.
- Amgen (AMGN) steadied after dropping more than 5% Monday, following disappointing results from its weight-loss trial, which showed a high number of patient dropouts due to gastrointestinal issues, Barron’s reported.
- Dow Inc. (DOW) rebounded 1% after falling 3% Monday, triggered by BMO Capital’s downgrade from Market Perform to Underperform. The downgrade cited rising concerns over a potential dividend cut, according to Barron’s.
- Financial technology company Fiserv (FI) rose 4.4% early Tuesday after a 4% gain Monday. The company plans to launch a stablecoin and digital assets platform by year-end, Barron’s noted. Meanwhile, Mastercard (MA) announced a deeper partnership with Fiserv.
- Shares of energy companies including Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Halliburton (HAL), and SLB (SLB) declined between 0.5% and 1% this morning. The energy sector remains under pressure after crude prices fell sharply, making it the worst-performing sector yesterday.
- FedEx (FDX) rose 1% ahead of its earnings report this afternoon, which could shed light on consumer and business sentiment during a quarter marked by tariff concerns. The company had previously disappointed with its outlook, citing “continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy.”
- Chewy (CHWY) dropped 1.9% following its announcement of a $1 billion underwritten public offering of Class A common stock.
- Cybersecurity firms CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) each gained about 1%, adding to Monday’s more than 2% rise. Concerns about potential Iranian cyberattacks amid the Middle East conflict have been fueling gains in the sector.
- KB Home (KBH) fell 1% in premarket trading. Although earnings beat analyst expectations, the outlook disappointed as the company lowered its fiscal 2025 guidance for housing revenue, average selling price, and gross profit margin. KBH and other homebuilders had rallied yesterday on easing Treasury yields.
- Northern Trust (NTRS) hit a new one-year high Monday, while Bank of New York (BK) slipped about 2% amid reports that BK is considering a bid for its smaller rival. Northern Trust affirmed its commitment to independence, Reuters reported, and shares were flat this morning.
What’s Ahead
FedEx (FDX) reports today after the close. The company’s performance is often seen as a proxy for the health of the economy. Analysts polled by FactSet expect FedEx to report adjusted earnings per share of $5.87 for its fourth quarter.
Fed Governor Michael Barr is scheduled to make opening remarks today at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
On Friday, Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will address the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at their 2025 Policy Summit.
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