The Mid-Day Buzz

Sophia Reyes · June 27, 2025 12:06 PM

June 27^th, 2025

U.S. stocks edged higher on Friday, nearing fresh record territory as renewed optimism around trade negotiations and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts lifted investor sentiment. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.6%, putting it on track to close at its first record high since February, after briefly hitting a new intraday peak early in the session. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also climbed roughly 0.6%, reaching a new intraday high and aiming for a record close. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.9%, advancing more than 300 points.

Economic Takeaways:

• Crude oil is up 0.7% today but remains down 12% for the week.
• While the end of the 90-day tariff pause was once seen as a potential source of market turbulence, the White House has downplayed its importance—calling the deadline “not critical” and signaling a willingness to adjust the timeline.
• Washington and Beijing confirmed a new agreement that will fast-track rare-earth exports from China in return for the U.S. easing certain countermeasures.
• The Trump administration said deals with 10 other countries are “imminent” and the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs “is not critical.”
• The U.S. has decided to drop the proposed Section 899 “revenge tax” from its tax legislation after securing G7 backing to shield American firms from certain foreign levies.
• The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE, increased 0.2% in May, slightly ahead of consensus expectations for 0.1%. On an annualized basis, core PCE increased 2.7%, from 2.6%.
• Jobless claims released yesterday added to concerns that the labor market may be softening.
• Consumer sentiment has revived modestly, according to a new University of Michigan survey. A final reading for June came in at 60.7. That compared to a preliminary reading of 60.5, and is up from 52.2 in May. Consumers expect 5.0% inflation in the next 12 months, down from 6.6% a month ago.
• The U.S. Dollar Index hit a new three-year low below 98 yesterday.
• As of early Friday, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 22% probability of a July interest rate cut, while markets priced in a 92% chance of at least one cut by September.

Trade News Lifts Market

Markets got a lift Friday after President Trump announced that the U.S. and China have officially “signed” a trade agreement. The deal formalizes the tariff truce reached last month in Geneva, with China confirming key elements of the agreed framework, according to multiple media reports.

As part of the agreement, China has pledged to supply rare earth minerals to the U.S., Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg. In return, the U.S. will begin rolling back certain countermeasures once those shipments begin, he added.

Lutnick also indicated that trade deals with 10 major U.S. partners are close to being finalized. Meanwhile, other administration officials noted that countries currently negotiating with the U.S. are likely to receive an extension of the July 9 tariff pause deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the U.S. could wrap up the remainder of its key trade negotiations by Labor Day.

Xiaomi Shares Jump as New SUV Takes Aim at Tesla

Xiaomi (1810.HK) shares rose 3.6% on Friday after the tech giant unveiled its new $35,000 electric SUV, a direct competitor to Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y in the Chinese market.

The new vehicle, the YU7, generated strong early interest with 289,000 preorders in just the first hour. Priced at 253,500 yuan, it comes in roughly 10,000 yuan cheaper than the Model Y, intensifying competition in China’s EV space.

Tesla shares slipped 0.4% in premarket trading. The company continues to face headwinds, including declining EV sales in Europe and the recent dismissal of Omead Afshar, who oversaw sales and manufacturing operations in North America and Europe.

On the Move

• Nike shares surged more than 10% after the company issued better-than-expected guidance. While the company reported revenue declines in North America and China, it forecast smaller-than-anticipated drops in overall sales and profit. Analysts had braced for a weak quarter, and Nike struck a cautiously optimistic tone, saying it expects “headwinds to moderate from here.”
• Nvidia (NVDA) rose nearly 1% in premarket trading, marking its fifth straight session of gains and building on a new record high. Semiconductor peers Broadcom (AVGO), Palantir (PLTR), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) each gained around 1% ahead of the open, helped by optimism surrounding a newly announced U.S.-China trade agreement.
• Tech stocks had a standout session Thursday, with 36% of the S&P 500 Technology Select Sector Index constituents hitting new highs.
• Core Scientific (CORZ) jumped 7.3% following a Wall Street Journal report that CoreWeave (CRWV) is in talks to acquire the digital infrastructure company. The rally builds on a 33% surge the previous day. CoreWeave shares rose another 2%.
• Amazon (AMZN) advanced 1.3% premarket after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral.
• Boeing (BA) gained 1.2% early Friday after Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded its rating to Buy from Neutral, citing signs of improving company health.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) extended its rally, adding 3% after a 7.6% rise Thursday as investor excitement around stablecoins persisted.
• Steelmakers Alcoa (AA) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) each rose over 0.5% before the bell, continuing Thursday’s strong performance amid hopes for durable goods demand. In contrast, gold miner Newmont (NEM) slid 2.3% as gold prices declined.

What’s Ahead

Today, the Fed is scheduled to release its 2025 “stress test” results for the biggest U.S. banks.

Next week, the focus will be on U.S. jobs. Payroll gains are expected to remain healthy, and the unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.2%.