July 25th, 2025
Stocks opened higher on Friday as investors reacted positively to strong early results from the ongoing earnings season. Major equity indexes moved up in morning trading, buoyed by optimism ahead of more earnings next week. Internationally, Asian markets closed lower overnight, and European equities are under pressure as the European Union continues trade negotiations with the U.S.
Economic Takeaways:
- Bond yields were mostly flat, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holding steady at 4.41%, down from its May peak near 4.60%.
- Sector performance was mixed: consumer discretionary and industrials led the gains, while real estate and energy trailed.
- The U.S. dollar is gaining ground against major global currencies.
- WTI crude oil prices slipped on reports suggesting U.S. firms may soon resume limited production in Venezuela.
- Durable goods orders fell less than expected in June, offering a slightly more positive read on the manufacturing sector. Orders dropped 9.3% from the previous month, beating forecasts for an 11.0% decline.
- The earnings outlook continues to improve, supported by better-than-expected corporate results. With about one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported so far, 82% have exceeded analyst estimates, with an average earnings surprise of 6.2%. Forecasts for second-quarter earnings growth have been revised up to 5.4%, from 3.8% at the quarter’s close.
- Headlines suggest the U.S. and EU are close to a deal that would slap 15% tariffs on imports from Europe.
- Federal Reserve independence appeared more secure Thursday after President Trump, alongside Fed Chair Jerome Powell, toured the central bank’s renovation site in hard hats and publicly affirmed that Powell’s job is safe.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a Fed rate cut next week remain below 3%, while chances for a cut in September stand at 62%.
Trump Signals Tougher Trade Stance as EU Talks Hang in Balance
President Trump on Friday said there’s a “50-50 chance” of reaching a trade deal with the European Union ahead of the August 1 deadline, casting uncertainty on ongoing negotiations. He also confirmed letters outlining new tariff rates for over 200 countries will be issued soon.
Talks with Canada remain tense, with Trump warning that non-USMCA goods could face tariffs as high as 35%. Future rates on other nations are expected to range from 15% to 50%, escalating from the 10% “baseline tariff” introduced in April.
Trump also noted that a framework deal with China is in place, with negotiations set for next week.
Meanwhile, friction is emerging in the newly announced U.S.-Japan trade agreement, as both sides clash over profit-sharing terms. The deal includes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports and a $550 billion investment in the U.S.
Additional trade developments include a finalized 19% tariff on goods from both the Philippines and Indonesia, part of Trump’s broader push to reshape global trade on U.S. terms.
Survey: Crypto’s Surge Has Some Americans Worrying They’re Too Late
With bitcoin recently soaring past $123,000, many Americans are eyeing cryptocurrency—but some fear the opportunity has already passed, according to a new survey by the National Cryptocurrency Association.
One in five Americans who don’t currently hold crypto say they plan to invest this year. Among those interested in learning more, nearly half said they worry they’ve “missed the boat.”
Still, hesitation remains widespread. The survey found 55% of respondents feel researching crypto is overwhelming, and 70% say they need more trustworthy information before investing.
The surge in crypto prices has been driven partly by a more favorable regulatory environment. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, establishing rules for stablecoins and boosting optimism around the sector.
Bitcoin is up nearly 30% in 2025, while Ether trades near $3,600. The global crypto market now stands at roughly $3.8 trillion.
On the Move
- American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) disappointed with their quarterly results and guidance this week.
- Intel (INTC) slid 7% in early trading after missing analysts’ earnings-per-share estimates, despite topping revenue forecasts. The chipmaker also guided for Q3 earnings below consensus, though revenue projections came in higher than expected. JPMorgan Chase raised its price target on Intel, but Bloomberg noted investor concern over cost-cutting efforts, even as the CFO told Barron’s capital expenditures are expected to decline next year.
- Centene (CNC) plunged 15% premarket after missing earnings estimates. While revenue topped forecasts, the healthcare firm cut its 2025 outlook.
- Deckers Outdoor (DECK) jumped 12% following better-than-expected earnings, driven by strong sales of its Ugg and Hoka brands, according to Bloomberg. Despite the pop, shares remained down 48% year-to-date through Thursday.
- Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP) shares were volatile amid renewed media reports of a possible merger, which would combine UNP’s western U.S. network with Norfolk’s East Coast routes. Bloomberg noted potential regulatory challenges, with concerns about inflation risks tied to consolidation.
- T-Mobile US (TMUS) edged higher, building on yesterday’s post-earnings rally. Strength in Alphabet (GOOGL) also continued to lift the communication services sector.
- Dow (DOW) and Chipotle (CMG), both hit hard Thursday on disappointing earnings and outlooks, traded modestly higher. IBM (IBM) also gained. The sharp sell-offs highlight how unforgiving investors have been toward earnings misses in what has been a low-bar quarter.
- Kohl’s (KSS) was flat after a strong Thursday rally, continuing its run as a popular meme stock on social media.
- Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 2% early Friday after a quiet week. Related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) dropped over 1%. The next catalyst for crypto could be the Clarity Act, which aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities. The bill still awaits Senate approval.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) slipped 1.4% premarket after being downgraded from Buy to Hold by Loop Capital.
What’s Ahead
Powell returns to the spotlight next week as the Federal Reserve meets, but he and other policymakers are expected to disappoint Trump by holding interest rates steady.
Next week’s key reports will come from several more “Magnificent 7” companies, including Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms (Facebook’s parent), and Microsoft.
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