July 29th, 2025
Major indexes resumed their climb Tuesday as investors looked ahead to job openings and consumer confidence data, while weighing a mixed slate of earnings from Boeing (BA), Merck (MRK), UPS (UPS), and UnitedHealth (UNH). Market participants also braced for after-hours results from Starbucks (SBUX) and Visa (V).
This comes after a mixed session in global equity markets overnight. European stocks extended gains following the U.S.-EU trade agreement announced over the weekend, while Asian and emerging market equities slipped.
Economic Takeaways:
- On the macro front, attention remained on U.S.-China trade talks and the outcome of a 7-year Treasury auction, with yields ticking slightly lower in early trading.
- The U.S. dollar is strengthening against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, building on yesterday’s momentum, though it remains down roughly 9% year-to-date.
- U.S. government bonds are seeing modest buying, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points so far today. Meanwhile, oil prices are up about 1%, though they continue to trade within a tight $65–$70 range.
- Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada remain difficult, according to statements from both President Trump and Canadian officials, though discussions are ongoing this week in hopes of a last-minute breakthrough. Canada has acknowledged that any agreement will likely include elevated U.S. tariffs, but is working to secure exemptions or reduced rates for key industries including autos, steel, aluminum, and potentially copper.
- U.S. Trade Representative Greer cautioned that further talks with India are necessary to avoid the imposition of higher tariffs later this week. Negotiations have also resumed with Cambodia and Thailand.
- In Europe, Treasury Secretary Bessant is attending a second day of talks with a Chinese trade delegation in Stockholm. The U.S. is reportedly pressing China to commit to significant purchases of American goods and is open to extending the current deadline by 90 days to allow more time to finalize a deal.
Novo Nordisk Shares Collapse as Company Slashes Outlook on Wegovy, Ozempic Weakness
Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares plunged more than 21% on Tuesday after the pharmaceutical giant cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, citing intensifying competition in the weight-loss drug market and disappointing sales projections for its blockbuster drugs Wegovy and Ozempic.
The company now expects 2025 sales growth between 8% and 14%, down sharply from its previous forecast of 13% to 21%. Operating profit growth was also revised lower, with expectations trimmed to 10%–16%, compared to the earlier range of 16%–24%.
In a statement Tuesday morning, Novo Nordisk blamed the lowered guidance on weaker-than-expected performance in the U.S. market. It pointed specifically to slower uptake of Wegovy due to the continued use of cheaper compounded GLP-1s and a sluggish market expansion. The company also cited increased competition from rival drugs for the downgrade in its Ozempic forecast.
The news dragged down shares of fellow weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY), which fell more than 5%, while competitor Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) bucked the trend and rose over 2.5%.
On the Move
- Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose over 1% in early Tuesday trading, extending gains from Monday’s close. The rally comes on the heels of Alphabet’s increased capital spending outlook, fueling hopes that upcoming mega-cap earnings will signal stronger data center investment—a key growth driver for AI chipmakers.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tacked on another 0.5% following a strong double-digit surge the day before. The stock, along with other tech names, appeared buoyed by renewed optimism around U.S.-China trade talks, which could improve access to Chinese markets.
- Corning (GLW) jumped 5% pre-market after beating revenue and earnings estimates and offering upbeat guidance for Q3. SoFi (SOFI) also surged, up 8% after topping earnings expectations and raising its outlook.
- On the downside, Nucor (NUE) fell over 5% despite a bottom-line beat, as revenue came in lighter than expected. Still, the steelmaker said it remains encouraged by steady demand.
- Spotify (SPOT) tumbled 7.5% after reporting a surprise loss, which Barron’s attributed to payroll taxes tied to share-based compensation. Royal Caribbean (RCL) dropped 6.6% after its profit forecast underwhelmed, despite better-than-expected results for the quarter.
- Whirlpool (WHR) plunged 14% after missing Wall Street’s estimates and cutting guidance. The company cited U.S. tariff policy as a headwind but remained optimistic that evolving trade rules could ultimately benefit domestic manufacturers.
- Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) both slipped after announcing a $320-per-share merger. The deal combines UNP’s western U.S. operations with Norfolk’s East Coast network, intensifying competitive pressure on CSX (CSX) and BNSF, a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) company.
- Merck (MRK) lost 4.5% pre-market after revenue narrowly missed estimates and fell 2% year over year. The company raised the lower end of its earnings guidance but acknowledged cost-cutting efforts amid headwinds facing key drugs.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) sank 22% after slashing its full-year guidance due to slower-than-expected U.S. growth for its blockbuster obesity drug Wegovy. The company now expects sales growth of 8–14%, down from 13–21% previously.
- Boeing (BA) gained 2% after reporting a narrower-than-expected loss and a nearly 35% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by strong growth in its commercial airplane segment. Shares are up 18% since mid-June.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) dipped nearly 1% as rising utilization pushed costs higher, leading to a slight earnings miss. UPS (UPS) slipped 2.8% after narrowly missing EPS expectations; while revenue topped estimates, the company withheld 2025 guidance due to macro uncertainty.
What’s Ahead
Four of the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech names report earnings this week, alongside roughly 150 other S&P 500 companies.
On Wednesday there is the Federal Reserve policy decision and Friday will host the July nonfarm payrolls report. This means volatility could easily return.
Second-quarter GDP will also be released tomorrow.
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts