August 13th, 2025
U.S. equities opened in positive territory Wednesday, with healthcare and materials leading gains while consumer staples and industrials lag. Investors are awaiting Thursday’s release of July producer price index (PPI) data, expected to show a 2.4% year-over-year increase. Overseas, Asian markets closed mostly higher and Europe is in the green. The S&P 500 index posted its 16th record high of the year.
Economic Takeaways:
- Bond yields are softer, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.24%, below July’s peak near 4.50%.
- The U.S. dollar is weaker against major currencies.
- WTI crude is lower after the International Energy Agency raised its supply outlook and trimmed demand projections. WTI crude hit a two-month low below $63 after the IEA warned supply will outpace demand into 2026. MBA data showed weekly mortgage applications up 10.9% and 30-year rates at a four-month low of 6.67%. Treasury yields, which rose yesterday on hotter core CPI, slipped early today alongside the U.S. dollar.
- Producer inflation likely ticking up – Forecasts call for July core PPI (excluding food and energy) to rise to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, with headline PPI up slightly from 2.3%. The uptick may reflect early tariff effects as higher import costs filter through supply chains, though these are seen as temporary. Bond markets imply long-term inflation expectations near 2.38%, suggesting price pressures remain anchored.
- Earnings season closes strong – With 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 82% beat estimates with an average surprise of 8.5%.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to execute a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the central bank’s benchmark ought to be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than it is now.
Trump Narrows Fed Chair Search
President Trump said Wednesday he’s “down to three or four” candidates to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, potentially announcing the choice early ahead of Powell’s May 2026 term end. The shortlist reportedly includes Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Chris Waller, and others.
The shake-up comes as Trump nominates Stephen Miran to the Fed Board and markets expect a September rate cut following dovish signals from multiple Fed officials. Powell’s next remarks are set for Aug. 22 at Jackson Hole.
Bullish Soars Over 200% in IPO Debut, Crypto Exchange Valued Above $16B
Crypto exchange operator Bullish (BLSH) exploded out of the gate Wednesday, opening at $90 per share before surging to $112—more than triple its $37 IPO price—briefly halting trading on volatility. The rally pushed Bullish’s market cap past $16 billion, far above the $5.4 billion valuation implied by its IPO pricing.
The company, which also owns CoinDesk, had already raised its pricing range twice amid strong institutional interest, including planned purchases from BlackRock and Ark Invest. Bullish’s debut marks a turnaround from its failed 2021 SPAC attempt, scrapped after regulatory scrutiny.
Bullish’s exchange handles an average $2.6 billion in daily spot and derivatives volume, targeting institutional clients. CEO Thomas Farley, former NYSE Group president, said the IPO comes as digital assets enter “the next leg of growth” and institutional adoption accelerates.
The blockbuster debut adds to 2025’s red-hot IPO streak, following huge first-day gains for Circle (CRCL), Figma (FIG), and CoreWeave (CRWV). Renaissance Capital reports 133 IPOs worth $50M+ so far this year, up 58% from 2024. Bullish also benefits from a crypto rally, with Bitcoin up 28% YTD, Ethereum up 40%, and XRP up 57%.
Ethereum Nears Record on Institutional Bets
Ethereum (ETH-USD) surged above $4,680 Wednesday—just shy of its 2021 peak—after a 50% rally since last month’s GENIUS Act gave regulatory clarity to stablecoins. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee called ETH “the biggest macro trade” of the next decade, projecting $15,000 by year-end.
The SEC’s “Project Crypto” initiative and rising corporate treasury purchases have fueled inflows. BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) plans to raise $20B to buy ETH, aiming to own 5% of all tokens. Ethereum is up 16% over the past week, outpacing Bitcoin’s 4% gain.
On the Move
- CoreWeave (CRWV) dropped 9% after posting a wider-than-expected loss, despite raising Q3 and FY2025 revenue guidance on “unprecedented” AI demand. Shares had rallied sharply before earnings.
- Airlines surge – United (UAL), Delta (DAL), and American (AAL) jumped 8–11% Tuesday after July CPI showed airfares rising for the first time in six months. Optimism for lower interest rates fueled broader consumer discretionary gains, lifting homebuilders, resorts, casinos, and major retailers.
- Tariff-sensitive names advance – Foot Locker (FL), lululemon (LULU), Toyota (TM), Boeing (BA), Target (TGT), and Nike (NKE) all gained at least 1% as the U.S. gave China three more months to reach a trade deal.
- Cava Group (CAVA) sank nearly 25% after missing same-store sales estimates and cutting guidance, citing consumer headwinds.
- Lumentum (LITE) rose 4% premarket on an earnings beat and strong AI data center demand, while Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) rallied on upbeat results and a new Walt Disney (DIS) comics partnership.
- Alibaba (BABA) climbed 3.6% ahead of Thursday’s earnings. Alphabet (GOOGL) added 1% after Bloomberg reported AI startup Perplexity’s $34.5B bid for Google’s Chrome browser, which regulators have pushed Google to sell.
What’s Ahead
Cisco is Wednesday’s earnings headliner after the closing bell.
Fresh inflation numbers arrive early tomorrow with the July Producer Price Index (PPI) report, measuring wholesale costs.
Expected earnings arrive tomorrow from Deere (DE), JD.com (JD), Tapestry (TPR), and Applied Materials (AMAT).
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