August 15th, 2025
Stocks End Week Firm as Retail Sales Highlight Consumer Resilience
U.S. equities finished the week in positive territory, buoyed by retail sales data that signaled steady consumer spending. The S&P 500 is testing fresh highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average leads gains. The small-cap Russell 2000 is rebounding sharply from Thursday’s dip, capping a strong week, though the Nasdaq is slightly softer.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.2%, with the index’s first record since December in sight. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 0.4% after President Trump said he would soon announce tariffs on semiconductor imports.
Globally, sentiment was broadly upbeat, with European markets lifted by optimism ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin that could advance Russia-Ukraine peace efforts.
Economic Takeaways:
- Treasury yields are steady, the dollar is modestly weaker.
- WTI crude is slightly lower.
- July retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, supported by strong online activity linked to Amazon’s Prime Day, now mirrored by competitors like Walmart and Target.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent has called for a 50 bps cut in September and 150 bps total for 2025, while San Francisco Fed President Daly has pushed back, citing solid fundamentals.
- President Trump said Friday he will announce tariffs on semiconductor imports within the next two weeks, as part of a broader expansion of his trade agenda to new sectors. “I’ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on… chips — chips and semiconductors,” he told reporters. Trump has previously suggested duties of around 100%, but on Friday floated far steeper rates. “I’m going to have a rate that is going to be 200%, 300%,” he said.
- The Russell 2000® (RUT) dropped 1% Thursday after a 2% gain Wednesday, as renewed inflation concerns and higher yields pressured rate-sensitive small caps. Tech stocks posted a second straight day of losses, while consumer discretionary and health care outperformed, led by Amazon (AMZN) and Eli Lilly (LLY).
- The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 93% probability of a Fed rate cut next month and 7% odds of no change. Futures markets still anticipate at least two cuts before year-end, even after Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI data.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slips in August, Ending Four-Month Streak
Americans’ outlook on the economy weakened in August, marking the first decline in consumer sentiment since April. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 from 61.7 in July, below the 62 reading economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected.
“This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers.
Sentiment had rebounded in June and July after plunging in the spring amid concerns over President Trump’s tariffs. In May, the index recorded its second-lowest reading on record, as uncertainty over long-term inflation and trade policy weighed heavily on consumers. Confidence improved in June after Trump scaled back some of his most aggressive tariff plans.
“Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused,” Hsu noted. “However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.”
Chip Stocks Slide as Trump Signals Semiconductor Tariffs Could Arrive Next Week
Semiconductor shares fell Friday after President Trump said he plans to impose tariffs on chips as early as next week.
“I’ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on… chips,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Alaska for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Reuters.
Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) each lost more than 1%, while Micron (MU) slid over 3%.
Earlier this month, Trump said chipmakers expanding domestic manufacturing — including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) — would be exempt from his proposed 100% chip tariffs, a pledge that had boosted semiconductor stocks. On Friday, however, he suggested those exemptions might only be temporary.
“I’m going to have a rate that is going to be lower at the beginning — that gives them a chance to come in and build — and very high after a certain period of time,” he said.
Opendoor Jumps After CEO Exit as Meme Stock Frenzy Lingers
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) shares climbed as much as 10% Friday morning after the home-flipping platform announced CEO Carrie Wheeler’s immediate departure.
The company said it is seeking a new chief executive to steer its next phase of growth, just weeks after its stock surged in a meme-driven rally. In the meantime, the board has tapped chief technology and product officer Shrisha Radhakrishna as president and interim leader.
Opendoor’s shares have been volatile over the past month, buoyed by speculative retail interest on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum and a bullish call from EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson, known for spotting Carvana’s turnaround. Jackson disclosed a long position in mid-July, when the stock was trading below $1.
Jackson has been openly critical of Opendoor’s leadership, especially after the company’s early August earnings report sent shares tumbling 20% on weak guidance. “The communication on the earnings call from the CEO and the CFO was really awful,” he told Yahoo Finance. He argued management did little to fuel the rally from $0.51 to nearly $5, crediting retail investors instead. “So I think she’s got to go,” he said.
On the Move
- Bottom of FormUnitedHealth (UNH) shares jumped Friday after a regulatory filing revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) purchased 5 million shares of the health insurance giant. Lennar (LEN) and DR Horton (DHI) each climbed 3%, and steelmaker Nucor (NUE) rose 6% on similar disclosures.
- Intel (INTC) shares surged Friday after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is weighing a purchase of a stake in the chipmaker using U.S. CHIPS Act funds. The news follows President Trump’s Monday meeting with Intel’s CEO, just a week after he had called for the executive’s resignation.
- Applied Materials (AMAT) tumbled 14% after the semiconductor equipment maker issued downbeat fourth-quarter guidance, citing soft demand in China and stoking fears of tariff-related headwinds.
- Miami International Holdings (MIAX) jumped 38% from its IPO price Thursday, marking the first major U.S. financial exchange listing in 15 years, according to Reuters.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) gained more than 3% Thursday after Bloomberg reported the company raised the price of its obesity drug in the UK by up to 170%.
- Salesforce (CRM) added 1% after an upgrade to Neutral from Underperform at DA Davidson. Target (TGT) slipped 1.7% after Bank of America cut its rating to Underperform from Neutral, citing “very challenged” digital sales trends.
What’s Ahead
Next week’s U.S. calendar is light, featuring August PMI flash readings and minutes from July’s Fed meeting, alongside Canadian inflation data. The spotlight will be on the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Fed Chair Powell’s Friday speech could offer clues on rate policy.
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