The Mid-Day Buzz
September 4th, 2025
Markets Steady as Investors Await the August Jobs Report
U.S. stocks were little changed in early Thursday trading as investors looked ahead to Friday’s release of the August employment report. Consumer discretionary and real estate shares led gains, while materials and technology lagged.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed by over 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%. The moves came after stocks were mostly higher yesterday.
Overseas, European markets were higher after EU retail sales slipped 0.5% in July, a smaller decline than the 0.9% drop economists had forecasted.
Economic Takeaways:
- The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies.
- 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide after weak jobs data, briefly dipping below 4.18% for the first time since early May.
- Gold futures (/GC) traded above $3,600 per ounce — an all-time high — up sharply from recent lows below $3,400.
- WTI crude oil traded lower ahead of this weekend’s OPEC meeting, where producers are expected to discuss additional output increases.
- Private-sector employment grew by 54,000 in August, according to ADP, missing expectations for an 85,000 gain. Nearly all the hiring came from leisure and hospitality (+50,000), while job losses in trade, transportation and utilities (-17,000) and education and health (-12,000) offset gains elsewhere.
- Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000 last week, slightly above forecasts of 231,000, while continuing claims held steady at 1.94 million. With unemployment at 4.2% and roughly 7.2 million job openings, the labor market appears to be cooling from a position of strength. Easing interest rates and potential deregulation could help cushion the slowdown.
- Mortgage rates moved slightly lower again this week following the Labor Day long weekend, reaching a fresh 2025 low. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.5% this week through Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac data, down from 6.56% a week earlier. The average 15-year rate was 5.6%, down from 5.69% last week.
- Gold (GC=F) could surge to $5,000 next year if the Federal Reserve’s independence comes under pressure, Goldman Sachs analysts warned. The metal has climbed more than 5% over the past five sessions on rising expectations the Fed will cut rates at its meeting later this month. The rally follows President Trump’s move to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook and nominate a rate-cut supporter in her place.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said his forecast is that it will “become appropriate” to cut interest rates “over time,” without clarifying the timing or pace of such moves.
- Traders are pricing ina 97% chance of a cut as of Thursday morning, compared with around 91.7% Wednesday before the JOLTS data was released.
Mexico Weighs Tariffs on China as Part of New Industrial Plan
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday her government is considering imposing tariffs on imports from countries without trade agreements with Mexico, including China.
The potential duties would form part of “Plan Mexico,” an initiative aimed at bolstering domestic industry in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on some Mexican imports. “We are considering imposing certain tariffs,” Sheinbaum told reporters at her daily news conference, noting that the measures would target nations lacking formal trade deals with Latin America’s second-largest economy.
Sheinbaum did not specify which products or sectors could be affected. Mexico is a member of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA in 2020 and is due for a joint review by the three countries in 2026.
Fed Nominee Miran Emphasizes Central Bank Independence in Senate Testimony
President Trump’s Federal Reserve board nominee, Stephen Miran, stressed the importance of the Fed’s independence during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Early questions from senators focused on how he would balance central-bank autonomy with Trump’s calls for persistently lower interest rates.
“I couldn’t be more in agreement that the independence of the central bank is of paramount importance,” Miran told Republican Sen. Tim Scott.
Miran added that he would act independently if confirmed, while also acknowledging that Trump “nominated me because I have policy views that I suppose that he liked.”
On the Move
- Salesforce (CRM) shares fell after the company issued a third-quarter revenue forecast that missed expectations, suggesting its AI platform has yet to deliver the anticipated payoff.
- American Eagle (AEO) stock jumped as the apparel retailer projected stronger sales, crediting campaigns starring actress Sydney Sweeney and NFL player Travis Kelce.
- Broadcom (AVGO) rose 0.4% ahead of results due after the close. The company’s large software business remains under pressure amid AI competition concerns.
- Nvidia (NVDA) flattened before the open but is down 7.6% from last month’s record high above $184. Shares have traded below their 50-day moving average of $171.59 for the past two days — the first sustained dip under that level since late April.
- Figma (FIG) fell 15% in pre-market trading after its first quarterly report as a public company missed revenue estimates despite 41% year-over-year growth. Profits were flat versus expectations for a gain.
- Ciena (CIEN) rose more than 17% ahead of the open on stronger-than-expected results tied to robust data-center demand.
- GitLab (GTLB) dropped 7% despite topping profit estimates and raising its outlook.
- Bitcoin futures (/BTC) fell another 1.5% this morning and remain below their 50-day moving average near $115,000.
- Campbell Soup (CPB) gained more than 7% Wednesday after beating earnings expectations. CEO Mick Beekhuizen said the company is benefiting from cost-conscious consumers cooking at home.
What’s Ahead
The government’s official nonfarm payrolls report due tomorrow should provide a fuller picture, with consensus calling for 80,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.2%. A softer print could bolster expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s meeting.
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