The Mid-Day Buzz

Sophia Reyes · September 8, 2025 12:41 PM

September 8^th, 2025

Stocks Edge Up as Investors Await Inflation Data

U.S. stocks opened the week higher, helped by falling interest rates and gains in overseas markets. Japanese shares rallied after Prime Minister Ishiba announced his resignation, while European markets rose ahead of a French confidence vote.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up around 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) traded 0.6% higher. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) wavered around the flatline. The moves come after stocks finished last week on a down note.

Big Tech stocks advanced Monday, with Nvidia and Broadcom leading the gains. Nvidia jumped more than 2%, while Broadcom extended its recent rally. Meta rose 1.6%, and Alphabet and Microsoft each gained about 1%. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) added 0.9%, topping all sectors in the S&P 500.

Wall Street’s focus has shifted to this week’s key inflation releases — the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday — which will provide fresh clues about the economy’s momentum following August’s weak jobs report and other soft labor-market signals, as recession worries build.

Economic Takeaways:

• Asian shares mostly rose with Japan’s benchmark jumping higher in Monday morning trading, despite the looming political uncertainty after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced last night he was stepping down as prime minister and head of his party.
• As of early Monday, odds of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week were 88%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and 12% that the Fed would deliver a 50-basis point cut.
• Canada shed 66,000 jobs in August, pushing its unemployment rate to 7.1% — the highest in nine years and a steeper loss than in the U.S.
• Gold hit a fresh record on Monday, extending gains after Friday’s unexpectedly weak US employment report that saw wagers increase on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
• Chinese exports rose 4.4% year-over-year in August, hitting a six-month low and falling short of analysts’ average estimate of 5%, as U.S. tariffs weighed on demand; exports to the U.S. dropped 33% from a year ago, while imports from the U.S. declined 16%.
• Treasury yields continued to slip early Monday following weak U.S. jobs data, with Kathy Jones, Schwab’s chief fixed income strategist, noting that “with inflation elevated and fiscal deficits rising, there may not be much room for Treasury yields to fall much further, especially those with longer-term maturities.”
• The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped to 4.06%, it’s lowest since April, and the dollar is under pressure.
• Oil rose after OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase for next month, while gold hit another record high.

U.S. Job Growth Likely Overstated Ahead of Major BLS Revision

Job growth in the year through March was probably much weaker than official figures show, signaling the labor market slowed well before this summer’s hiring slump.

Economists at Wells Fargo, Comerica and Pantheon expect Tuesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark revision to cut March payrolls by about 800,000 jobs, or 67,000 a month on average. Nomura, Bank of America and RBC say the downgrade could approach one million.

Although the data are dated, a large downward revision would highlight lost momentum and strengthen the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. It would also invite renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who has questioned BLS data accuracy.

Each year, the BLS “benchmarks” its March estimate to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — a more comprehensive but slower-moving database based on state unemployment insurance records — to improve accuracy.

“A big downward revision … sets the stage for the broader context of how the economy has been doing,” said Bill Adams, Comerica’s chief economist. “All else equal, downward revisions increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy.”

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he expects the revision to lower payroll growth by about 60,000 jobs per month. Policymakers are widely expected to cut borrowing costs at next week’s meeting.

Americans’ Confidence in Finding Work Plunges to Survey Low

Americans’ confidence in landing a new job after losing one has dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, according to a New York Fed survey released Monday. The share of respondents expecting to find a job fell 5.8 percentage points to 44.9% in August — the weakest reading since the survey began in June 2013. Expectations that the U.S. unemployment rate will rise over the next year also increased, up nearly two percentage points to 39.1%.

The data highlight mounting anxiety over a sharply slowing labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, well below forecasts, and revised figures show average gains of fewer than 30,000 jobs per month over the past three months.

This cooling backdrop has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting next week. Futures tracked by CME’s FedWatch tool now fully price in an interest rate reduction in September.

On the Move

• QuantumScape (QS) stock jumped more than 22% early Monday after a live demonstration of its solid-state lithium-metal batteries powering an electric Ducati motorcycle.
• US-listed shares of ASML (ASML) edged up 1.5% Monday after the Dutch company became Mistral AI’s top shareholder. Reuters reported Sunday that ASML was committing €1.3 billion, or $1.5 billion, to Mistral as part of its latest €1.7 billion funding round.
• Pittsburgh’s PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) said Monday it reached an agreement to acquire Colorado lender FirstBank for $4.1 billion, moving one of the largest regional banks in the US one step closer to becoming a coast-to-coast brand.
• Shares in Robinhood were up more than 8% Monday morning on the news that the company is soon to be included in the S&P 500.
• Elon Musk-led SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) has agreed to buy EchoStar (SATS) wireless spectrum licences for its Starlink satellite network, the companies said on Monday.
• Tesla (TSLA) rose more than 1% in premarket trading after its board asked shareholders to approve a new pay package for CEO Elon Musk that could be worth up to $1 trillion over the next decade. Separately, data showed Tesla’s U.S. market share has fallen to its lowest level since 2017.
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) dipped 1% as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slid to about $111,500 from above $113,000 on Friday. The company is one of the largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency.
• AppLovin (APP) soared more than 9% in early trading after being added to the S&P 500 index, while Emcor Group (EME), an infrastructure firm, also climbed on its S&P 500 inclusion, as mutual funds that track the index typically buy shares of newly added companies, lifting their prices.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH), one of the stocks removed from the S&P 500 to make room for new entries, fell 1.3% in early trading.
• Nvidia (NVDA) edged higher in early trading after suffering losses last week when semiconductor competitor Broadcom reported earnings, though Nvidia has fallen six of the past seven sessions; Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares also sagged Friday amid investor concerns that growing competition could impact the AI chip market.
• Broadcom (AVGO) climbed 1.3% early Monday after reporting AI revenue growth of 63% last quarter and providing guidance that impressed Wall Street.
• Kenvue (KVUE) rose almost 1% in early trading after falling 9.4% last Friday, following a report that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would link autism to Tylenol use during pregnancy.
• Telecom stocks fell in early trading, with Verizon (VZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), and AT&T (T) dropping between 3% and 4%, while EchoStar (SATS) surged 24% after announcing a $17 billion cash-and-stock deal to sell its AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses to SpaceX, a move that would allow SpaceX to expand its direct-to-device mobile service more independently, despite already having a partnership with T-Mobile.

What’s Ahead

With no major U.S. data due Monday, investors are squarely focused on inflation figures later this week.

Tomorrow also includes an Apple (AAPL) product event that could include the introduction of its iPhone 17 lineup, Bloomberg reports.

August’s readings could show how much leeway the Federal Reserve has to support the labor market, with a September rate cut already fully priced in.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual benchmark revisions Tuesday, based on state unemployment insurance records. Economists expect the data to show U.S. job growth in the year through March was weaker than previously reported — possibly by as much as 800,000 jobs, or about 67,000 per month. Such a revision would reinforce pressure on the Fed to ease policy after Friday’s jobs report showed minimal hiring over the past four months and the first monthly job loss since 2020. Bond markets already fully price in a September cut, with expectations for the fed funds rate to dip below 3% by late 2025.

This week’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index releases — the last major inflation data before the Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting — are expected to show headline CPI rising to 2.9% from 2.7%, the highest since January, partly due to a favorable base effect. Core inflation is seen holding at 3.1%. While tariffs may push up costs later, their impact on August’s data is likely limited, and ongoing disinflation in services could help keep overall price pressures contained.

With earnings season all but over, the week ahead brings few reports, with Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Kroger (KR) being the highlights.