September 9th, 2025
Markets Edge Higher Ahead of Key Inflation Data
Stocks posted modest gains Tuesday morning as investors waited for fresh inflation readings. The S&P 500 is up about 10% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq has gained roughly 13%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reversed gains to drop 0.2% after stocks rose on Monday to stay in record-high territory.
Economic Takeaways:
- Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.05%, still near its lows for the year. That backdrop has lifted fixed-income returns, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index up about 6.4% so far in 2025.
- A New York Federal Reserve survey released on Monday showed the perceived probability of losing one’s job rising to 14.5%. “Consumers continue to have an increasingly sour outlook when it comes to labor,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab.
- Volatility remains subdued, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) trading below 16—well under its long-term average of 20. However, the VIX curve is in contango, with contracts further out rising above 21 as investors price in higher volatility early next year.
- Oil prices advanced nearly 1% on Tuesday as Middle East tensions escalated after Israel announced it had struck Qatar. West Texas Intermediate trimmed earlier gains of as much as 2%, to hover near $62.80 per barrel. Brent traded up nearly 1% to 66.30 per barrel.
- The Energy Sector (XLE) led gains in stocks on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on Tuesday, adding around 1.7%.
- Traders continued to price in 90% chances of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its September meeting and 10% odds of a 50 basis point cut following the release of the BLS data on Tuesday, according to CME Group.
- Gold prices surged to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, breaking the $3,650 barrier for the first time in history as anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month fuelled demand for the precious metal.
Job Growth Overstated by 911,000 in Latest Labor Department Revision
U.S. job growth from early 2024 through March 2025 was far weaker than first reported, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency cut its estimate of employment gains by 911,000 — more than halving the previously reported 1.79 million increase.
Average monthly job growth for the period now stands at just over 70,000, down from about 147,000. Leisure and hospitality, retail, professional services, manufacturing and information were among the sectors showing the steepest downward revisions.
The adjustment, part of the BLS’s annual benchmarking process, suggests the labor market entered this year on a weaker footing than thought. Federal Reserve officials had signaled they expected a downward revision; investors still anticipate a quarter-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting.
Apple Event Unveils iPhone 17 and More
CNBC is offering live coverage today of Apple’s flagship launch event, where the tech giant is expected to reveal its latest iPhones, Apple Watches, and other hardware, all scheduled to hit stores later this month. Updates will be posted throughout the event.
What to Know:
- Apple is unveiling new iPhones, widely expected to be called the iPhone 17, along with other devices, at its Cupertino, California headquarters. The event carries the tagline “Awe dropping” and began at 1 p.m. ET.
- Following the announcements, Apple plans to release iOS 26, featuring a visual redesign the company calls Liquid Glass. While this update will ship on the new iPhones, older devices will also receive the refreshed interface.
- Analysts are closely monitoring Apple’s pricing strategy for the new iPhones, as any increase could boost revenue and offset costs tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Apple CEO Tim Cook kicked off the presentation with remarks emphasizing design as central to the company’s philosophy.
“Design has always been fundamental to who we are and what we do,” Cook said. “Design goes beyond just how something looks or feels. Design is also how it works.”
Cook confirmed that Apple would introduce new iPhones, Apple Watches, and AirPods during the event. He also noted that Jony Ive, Apple’s iconic designer who left in 2019, is now creating competing hardware at OpenAI.
Apple streams its launch events via its website and YouTube, with live viewer counts visible. Minutes before the official start, the YouTube stream had already attracted more than 650,000 viewers, signaling continued high consumer demand for Apple’s newest products.
On the Move
- Citigroup lowered its Nvidia (NVDA) price target Monday, saying Nvidia could suffer a 4%, or $12 billion, hit to its 2026 graphics processing unit (GPU) sales due to Broadcom’s custom AI chips that it calls “XPUs.” Nvidia said late Monday it has secured H20 licenses for major customers in China — a development that could soon generate revenue from the country. The Trump administration recently cleared the company to sell the chip there after blocking it earlier this year, but Nvidia has not included any H20 sales in China in its current-quarter guidance.
- Oracle (ORCL) gained 1% Tuesday morning after climbing nearly 2.5% Monday ahead of its earnings release. Investors are focused on cloud performance and the company’s data center partnership with OpenAI. Analysts expect revenue of about $15 billion, up 12.8% from a year ago, and earnings per share of $1.48.
- Broadcom added 3.2% Monday, extending last week’s sharp rally on rising demand for its custom AI chips.
- Teck Resources (TECK) surged 18% in premarket trading after agreeing to merge with Anglo American PLC, a deal Barron’s said will create one of the world’s largest copper producers.
- Dell (DELL) slipped 0.8% following news that its CFO will step down—an announcement that surprised investors ahead of the company’s analyst meeting, Bloomberg reported.
- AppLovin (APP) jumped 11.5% Monday after its addition to the S&P 500 index, a move that typically spurs buying from index-tracking funds.
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose nearly 4% in premarket trading after reaffirming its full-year earnings outlook. Shares are now up 37% from early August lows.
- Fox (FOX) dropped 4.7% early Tuesday after CNBC reported the Murdoch family had resolved its succession battle and established a new trust to receive proceeds from the sale of nearly 17 million shares of Class B stock.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) advanced more than 6% after the Wall Street Journal said the AI cloud company launched a venture arm to invest in startups.
- Casey’s General Stores (CASY) fell 1.3% in premarket trading despite topping earnings expectations, posting a 4.3% rise in same-store sales and reaffirming guidance.
- Nebius (NBIS), an Amsterdam-based tech company, soared 55% after signing a $17 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft (MSFT).
- Tourmaline Bio (TRML) soared more than 50% in premarket trading after Novartis announced it would acquire the company in a $1.4 billion deal. Novartis will pay $48 per share, and the transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter. Investors reacted positively to the premium acquisition price.
What’s Ahead
Oracle (ORCL) and GameStop (GME) are set to report earnings after the bell. Wall Street analysts expect Oracle to see a 30% year-over-year jump in cloud revenue.
August producer and consumer price indexes arrive on Wednesday and Thursday.
Economists expect headline PPI to hold at 3.3% year-over-year and headline CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.7%.
Tariff-related pressures are likely to build later this year, but August figures may show only limited impact as many firms still absorb costs.
This is the last inflation reading before the Fed’s September 17 meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to cut rates despite inflation remaining above the 2% target.
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