September 17th, 2025
Stocks Edge Higher as Retail Sales Surprise
U.S. equities opened modestly higher on Tuesday, buoyed by fresh evidence of resilient consumer spending. The S&P 500 gained 0.1% in early trading, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq extended its rally and was on track for a 10th straight session of gains.
Overseas markets were softer, with European and Asian indexes broadly lower, though Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped about 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) edged down roughly 0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 0.3%.
Economic Takeaways:
- Bond markets saw a moderate sell-off in longer-dated maturities globally, but U.S. Treasuries were stable, with the 10-year yield flat at the open.
- The U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies.
- WTI crude climbed on reports of additional Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries and the prospect of tougher sanctions on Russian oil.
- After slowing to about 1% annualized growth in the first half of 2025—down from roughly 3% in 2024—U.S. household consumption appears to be stabilizing. This morning’s retail sales report marked a third consecutive monthly gain: headline sales rose 0.6% month over month, while the control group increased 0.7%. July figures were revised higher as well.
- The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran, President Trump’s nominee to the Federal Reserve, in a 48-47 vote Monday evening — just a day before the central bank’s policy meeting begins Tuesday. His confirmation positions him to participate in a key vote on the direction of interest rates.
Investors Most Bullish on Stocks Since February as S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Records
Investors are showing the most confidence in stocks since February, according to Yahoo Finance’s Allie Canal.
Wall Street fund managers are returning to equities even as economic conditions show signs of strain. Bank of America’s (BAC) latest Global Fund Manager Survey, released Tuesday, revealed that global equity allocations for September rose to a seven-month high, while average cash holdings remained steady at 3.9% for the third consecutive month — a level that typically signals caution as investors have limited dry powder.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett noted that sentiment hasn’t tipped into full-blown euphoria. Historically, a true contrarian warning emerges when cash drops below 3.7% or equity allocations exceed 30%. Currently, 28% of fund managers are overweight in global equities, indicating bullishness without reaching the “hubris” threshold.
That optimism is showing up in the markets: The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at a fresh record on Monday, while the Nasdaq extended its streak to six consecutive all-time highs.
On the Move
- Alphabet (GOOG) surged 4.3% Monday, pushing its market capitalization above $3 trillion for the first time on strong downloads of its AI app, Gemini. Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) also remain in the triple-trillion-dollar club.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) gained 2.7% this morning after releasing positive Phase 3 results for its next-generation weight-loss drug.
- Hershey (HSY) rose nearly 3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Sell, calling the shares a “compelling risk/reward.”
- Seagate Technologies (STX) advanced 7.7% on heavy volume following a price-target increase from Bank of America.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) climbed 7.6% yesterday after Nvidia placed an order worth “at least” $6.3 billion for its cloud infrastructure technology; Citizens JMP also upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform.
- Tesla (TSLA) added almost 3.6% Friday after CEO Elon Musk disclosed an insider purchase of nearly $1 billion—his first public transaction since 2020—sending the stock into positive territory for the year.
- Oracle (ORCL) rose 5.6% in premarket trading after CBS News reported it could play a central role in a potential TikTok deal between the Trump administration and China.
- Live Nation (LYV) slipped in after-hours trading Monday on news of an FTC investigation into bots, though shares remain near record highs.
- Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) dropped 18.8% ahead of the open after missing both earnings and revenue forecasts, with same-store sales down 3%.
- Alaska Air (ALK) fell 6.7% Monday after warning profits would land at the low end of guidance due to rising fuel costs and a July technology outage.
What’s Ahead
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting is the week’s main event, with markets widely expecting the first rate cut of 2025 to happen tomorrow. While some speculate a 50-basis-point move is possible, a 25-point reduction appears more likely. More crucial than the decision itself will be the Fed’s updated forecasts for future policy. In June, the median projection called for two quarter-point cuts in 2025 and one in 2026; markets now price in as many as six cuts by the end of next year. Investors will also parse Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for signs the central bank stands ready to respond to labor-market weakness, even amid near-term tariff-driven inflation pressures.
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts