September 22nd, 2025
Markets ease after record highs.
U.S. equities started the week on a softer note with few major data releases or corporate headlines to guide sentiment. The pullback comes after last week’s rally, which pushed large-cap indexes to new records following the Fed’s first interest-rate cut of 2025.
The S&P 500 was up 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.6%, both setting fresh intraday records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 93 points, or 0.2%. Gains were led by a sharp rally in Nvidia after the chipmaker announced a sweeping new partnership with OpenAI, underscoring the durability of the artificial-intelligence investment theme.
Nvidia revealed it will pour $100 billion into OpenAI to help build out vast data-center infrastructure based on its AI chips. CEO Jensen Huang called the 10-gigawatt systems OpenAI plans to run “monumental in size,” equivalent to between four and five million Nvidia GPUs. CFRA’s Sam Stovall said the pact suggests the AI trade could “drive EPS and share price growth into 2026 and beyond.”
Economic Takeaways:
- Gold continues its climb, setting a new high above $3,700 per ounce amid the strongest ETF inflows in three years.
- U.S. Treasury yields are little changed, the dollar is holding steady against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
- The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX:CGI) eased more than one basis point after last week’s rise. Treasuries may be drawing support from mounting worries about a government shutdown. “In the past, Treasuries have rallied during shutdowns,” said my colleague Jones.
- WTI crude remains within its $60–$65 per barrel range, albeit slightly lower today.
- Late last week, President Trump issued a proclamation raising the H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, up from $1,000 previously. Over the weekend, the administration confirmed the new fee applies to the application process for this high-skilled work authorization.
Oracle leadership changes add fuel to stock surge.
Software giant Oracle also jumped Monday, extending a roughly 42% gain this month after announcing that Clay Magouyrk, head of its cloud infrastructure business, and Mike Sicilia, head of Oracle Industries, will become co-CEOs. Current CEO Safra Catz will move into the role of executive vice chair on the board.
Other notable movers at midday included Apple, which gained about 4% on reports of strong iPhone 17 demand, Teradyne, which surged 10% after an upbeat analyst note tied to its Taiwan Semiconductor partnership, and Molson Coors, which slipped 2% after naming Rahul Goyal as its new CEO.
Caution over government shutdown tempers gains.
Investors remain wary of a looming U.S. government shutdown after the Senate last week rejected both Republican and Democratic stopgap funding bills. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has urged President Trump to negotiate directly with Democrats ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.
Fed policy and inflation in focus.
Markets are coming off a strong week in which all three major indexes hit record highs and the small-cap Russell 2000 notched its first record close since November 2021. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point last week—its first reduction since December—signaling a more dovish tilt amid evidence of a cooling labor market. Futures markets tracked by CME’s FedWatch tool currently price in two more 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.
This week’s key macro event is the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Economists expect inflation to stay subdued enough to allow the central bank to maintain its current stance, though rising tariffs and cost pass-throughs remain a concern.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem on Monday backed last week’s rate cut but warned against easing too aggressively, saying policy is now “between modestly restrictive and neutral.” Separately, newly seated Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued the opposite, telling the Economic Club of New York that the benchmark rate is “far too high” and should be lowered by nearly two percentage points given changing tax, immigration and regulatory conditions.
On the Move
- Pfizer climbed nearly 3% after agreeing to buy weight-loss drugmaker Metsera for $4.9 billion in cash, sending Metsera shares up 60%.
- Brokerage giant Compass announced plans to acquire rival Anywhere, the parent of Century 21 and Coldwell Banker, for $1.6 billion in stock, giving the combined company an enterprise value of about $10 billion; Compass fell 9% while Anywhere soared more than 50%.
- Sarepta Therapeutics rose 6% on a BMO upgrade to “outperform.”
- Helmerich & Payne was upgraded by Barclays to “overweight” with a $25 price target—about 22% upside from Friday’s close—on expectations the U.S. rig count is near a bottom and KCA Deutag rig suspensions could be lifted next year.
- Kenvue, Johnson & Johnson’s consumer-health spinoff, fell more than 5% in premarket trading after The Washington Post reported the Trump administration plans to announce a possible link between prenatal Tylenol use and autism.
- Oracle (ORCL) advanced 4% Friday after Bloomberg reported the company is negotiating a roughly $20 billion cloud-computing agreement with Meta Platforms (META). The stock added another 0.8% Monday morning on a separate Bloomberg report saying Oracle will rebuild and secure a U.S. version of TikTok’s algorithm under a proposed sale of the social-media app to a consortium of American investors.
- Lam Research (LCRX) rose 1% Monday after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Underweight. The firm also lifted its 2026 wafer-fab equipment sales forecast to 10% year-over-year growth from 5%.
- ASML (ASML) climbed 3.5% following a Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight. The analysts noted the shares seem to reflect little contribution from Intel (INTC) and Samsung after recent estimate cuts and pointed to strengthening memory-chip demand and potential AI-driven growth in wafer starts.
- Applied Materials (AMAT) advanced 1.5% on Morgan Stanley’s upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight. The brokerage similarly raised its 2026 wafer-fab equipment sales forecast to 10% growth from 5%, with the increase “almost entirely” in memory.
- Barrick Mining (B) jumped nearly 10% Friday, buoyed by falling U.S. interest rates that weakened the dollar and boosted gold. Gold prices themselves rose 1% that day.
- SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) gained 2% Friday and is up 24% for the week as solar stocks benefited from the Fed’s rate cut. Historically, easier monetary policy has helped solar firms by lowering borrowing costs, CNBC noted.
- Compass (COMP) dropped 12% after agreeing to merge with Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS) in an all-stock transaction. Shares of HOUS soared 55% on the news.
- Apple (AAPL) edged up nearly 1% as Wedbush raised its price target, citing strong demand for the new iPhone 17.
- Major tech and “Magnificent Seven” names showed little immediate reaction Monday to President Trump’s proclamation overhauling the H-1B visa program—including a new $100,000 application fee—which has raised concerns about future access to skilled workers.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) fell nearly 2% early Monday, pressuring crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), which dropped more than 2%. Other digital assets were also weaker.
What’s Ahead
The Fed resumed its easing cycle last week but avoided signaling further cuts in advance. This week’s August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be key for shaping expectations. Based on already-released CPI and PPI data, economists are forecasting a 0.3% month-over-month increase in headline PCE and 0.2% in the core measure.
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