September 23rd, 2025
Stocks near records.
U.S. equities are flat in early trading after setting new highs Monday. AI-driven investment continues to support large caps, though semiconductor shares are taking a breather following Nvidia’s reported $100 billion plan to fund OpenAI. Energy and materials are leading this morning’s gains on stronger oil and gold prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above the flatline. The S&P 500 fell about 0.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 0.4%.
Economic Takeaways:
- The 10-year Treasury yield finished flat at 4.14% Monday, still above recent lows near 4% ahead of the Fed rate cut. A $69 billion 2-year note auction is set for today, with results due by early afternoon. While recent auctions have seen strong demand, any sign of weakness could pressure Treasuries and push yields higher, posing a potential headwind for equities.
- The OECD raised its 2025 global GDP forecast to 3.2% from 2.9%, citing fiscal stimulus in China, front-loaded industrial production ahead of tariff hikes, and robust U.S. AI investment. U.S. growth expectations also edged up to 1.8% from 1.6%.
- With federal funding set to expire Sept. 30 and no agreement on an extension, the odds of an Oct. 1 government shutdown are increasing. A House-passed stopgap measure failed in the Senate; President Trump meets Democratic leaders Thursday in hopes of breaking the deadlock.
- The US manufacturing and services sectors grew less than expected in September, according to S&P Global’s US Flash PMI reading. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI hit 52, below the 52.2 expected by economists polled by Bloomberg and the reading of 53 last month. Meanwhile, the US Services PMI was 53.9, below the reading of 54 expected and 54.5 last month. Readings above 50 signal expansion in the sectors.
Gold Surges Past $3,800, Analysts See More Upside
Gold hit a new intraday high above $3,800 Tuesday, with futures up 0.8% and spot bullion near $3,780. Analysts remain bullish, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,000 and UBS $3,900 by mid-2026, citing lower U.S. real rates and continued inflation. Investor demand is strong, with ETF inflows at a three-year high, while central banks and China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange activity support the market. The metal is up over 40% year to date, and some momentum is being driven by short-covering, reinforcing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
Powell Signals Caution on Rate Cuts as Inflation Pressures Persist
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in a speech in Rhode Island that the central bank will proceed cautiously with rate cuts, highlighting the difficulty of balancing its dual mandate. “Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation. Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path,” Powell said.
His remarks set the stage for Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which investors will watch for signs that already sticky inflation isn’t accelerating — a key factor in expectations for two additional rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s data showed U.S. business activity slowed in September, even as a measure of prices paid for materials rose, suggesting persistent price pressures.
On the Move
- Nvidia (NVDA) ended Monday up nearly 4% following its announcement of a major OpenAI partnership, while rival Broadcom (AVGO) fell 1.8% on concerns the deal could affect its competitive standing.
- Apple (AAPL) climbed 4.3% toward all-time highs after Wedbush raised its price target to $310, citing strong early demand for the iPhone 17. The gain pushed Apple into positive territory for the year, after months of underperformance on fears it was lagging in the AI space.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) dropped 2.7% Monday alongside other cryptocurrency products, though it edged higher early Tuesday. This period is traditionally weak seasonally, but October often sees stronger performance, though past trends are not guarantees.
- Boeing (BA) rose 2.52% in overnight trading on reports that the U.S. and China are nearing a trade deal potentially covering up to 500 aircraft.
- Tesla (TSLA) surged nearly 2% Monday following an upgrade from Baird and a price-target increase from Piper Sandler.
- Micron (MU) added 1% ahead of its earnings report due after the close. The company exceeded analysts’ expectations last quarter, and Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of three chip-component suppliers Monday. In June, Micron projected strong demand in the high-bandwidth memory market, fueled by the AI boom.
- Shares of the online real estate company Better Home & Finance (BETR) popped more than 27% in premarket trading on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s 46% rally after activist investor Eric Jackson called the company“the Shopify of mortgages.”
- Plug Power (PLUG) stock continued to see significant gains on Tuesday, climbing 11% in premarket trading. Over the past five days, shares have rallied 68%, including a 21% gain on Monday.
- Kenvue (KVUE) stock rebounded on Tuesday morning after President Trump linked the use of its pain-relieving drug Tylenol to autism but didn’t offer new scientific evidence to support that claim.
What’s Ahead
The spotlight is on Micron Technology’s (MU) quarterly earnings due after the bell.
As earnings season approaches next month, investors will be watching whether the broader market begins to match the “Magnificent Seven” in profit growth, since only about 60% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages versus more than 80% a year ago—a sign of concentration at the top. Lower interest rates could ease borrowing costs and help smaller companies’ margins.
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