September 24th, 2025
Equity markets edged higher.
U.S. stocks were trading near record levels again, with the major indexes modestly positive in early trading after Tuesday’s dip. Mega-cap technology names are leading the charge, as all “Mag 7” stocks move higher this morning, helped by upbeat headlines on Alibaba’s AI infrastructure investments.
U.S. equities then started to fall as investors weighed conflicting messages from Federal Reserve officials about the path of interest rates. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped 0.4%, reversing earlier gains.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated that the central bank would move cautiously on additional easing, while noting that equities look “fairly highly valued.” Other officials have struck more divergent tones, reflecting cracks in the labor market and differing views on how fast policy should shift.
Asian equities posted broad gains overnight, while Europe is showing a more mixed tone.
Economic Takeaways:
- Yesterday’s rally in Treasuries is also reversing, with a mild sell-off pushing the 10-year yield up roughly 3 basis points to start the session.
- The dollar is firming against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
- Oil continues to climb on stronger rhetoric from President Trump toward Russia, who said Ukraine could recover all territory lost in the conflict. WTI at $64 a barrel remains bound within the $60–$65 range seen over recent months.
- With just over a week left in the third quarter, S&P 500 earnings are tracking a 7.7% year-over-year increase. Gains appear broad-based, with eight of 11 sectors expected to post positive growth. Technology remains the standout, with consensus calling for 20%-plus earnings growth, including an eye-catching 45% jump in semiconductors.
- A steady stream of FOMC commentary is following last week’s rate cut. Chair Powell largely reiterated his post-meeting remarks, signaling that policy should move toward less restrictive levels but offering few specifics on timing or scope. By contrast, Governor Bowman took a more dovish tone, warning of the risks of falling behind the curve and calling for decisive cuts. Regional Fed Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee were more cautious, highlighting inflation risks and emphasizing patience. These divisions underscore the balancing act Powell faces and put added weight on upcoming labor and inflation data to confirm—or challenge—market expectations for rate cuts in October and December.
- Household exposure to financial assets rose to a record 45.4% in the second quarter.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is seeking a Federal Reserve chair candidate with an “open mind” as he interviews 11 potential successors to Powell ahead of his term’s expiration next May.
- New Commerce Department figures showed new home sales unexpectedly surged in August as mortgage rates eased, drawing some buyers back into the market and unlocking pent-up demand. Still, affordability remains a headwind.
Tesla rallies as Mizuho boosts price target to $450.
Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped more than 3% Wednesday, leading the “Magnificent Seven” tech names, after Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh raised his price target on the stock to $450 from $375.
Rakesh said Tesla is likely to see only “minimal” impact from U.S. tariffs and noted that the proposed trillion-dollar pay package for Elon Musk, along with Musk’s $1 billion Tesla stock purchase, could align management incentives with Mizuho’s “blue sky” scenario of faster humanoid robot and robotaxi adoption.
The rally put Tesla on track to close at its highest level of 2025, after hitting a year-to-date peak earlier this week.
Marvell gains on $5 billion buyback.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose more than 3% after announcing that its board authorized a new $5 billion stock repurchase program. CEO Matt Murphy said the move underscores the company’s conviction in its business and intrinsic value.
Marvell makes custom chips for major clients including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, and earlier this year struck a deal with Nvidia to integrate its chips into the tech giant’s AI systems. Murphy added that a strong balance sheet gives Marvell room to keep investing in long-term growth, especially in accelerated AI infrastructure. Despite Wednesday’s pop, the shares remain down about 30% year to date.
On the Move
- After Tuesday’s close, Micron (MU) reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $3.03 per share, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. The chipmaker also issued stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue guidance for Q1. Shares gained more than 2.5% in after-hours trading.
- Amazon shares have slid roughly 4.7% since Friday’s close. The company announced plans to shutter all 19 of its Fresh grocery stores in the U.K., although five locations will be converted into Amazon-owned Whole Foods outlets.
- AutoZone (AZO) dropped more than 2% intraday following an earnings miss but found support at its 50-day moving average and finished Tuesday’s session flat.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) rose 1.28% overnight, snapping a three-day losing streak. The rebound appeared to buoy Coinbase (COIN), which traded 1% higher in premarket action.
- Caterpillar (CAT) rallied 4% intraday before giving back gains to close fractionally lower. Still, the stock is up more than 8% over the past month on the back of several analyst upgrades.
- Crude oil futures climbed 1.9% on Tuesday after President Trump threatened new tariffs on Russia and urged EU countries to follow suit if no Ukraine deal emerges. WTI continues to face resistance at its 200-day moving average. Halliburton (HAL) jumped 7.3% Tuesday alongside broad strength in oil and gas names.
- Alibaba (BABA) jumped as much as 10% after pledging to boost AI spending beyond its $50 billion target to keep pace with a global surge to $4 trillion.
- Tesla (TSLA) climbed up to 3% and was on track for its highest close of 2025 after Mizuho Securities raised its price target to $450, citing muted tariff effects and optimism around its robotaxi plans.
- Meta (META) ticked higher after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced Instagram has reached 3 billion monthly active users.
- Intel (INTC) shares jumped nearly 5% on Wednesday, putting the stock on track to close at its highest in a year.
What’s Ahead
Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, for reassurance that price pressures won’t derail expectations for two more cuts this year.
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts