The Mid-Day Buzz
September 25th, 2025
Equity markets retreat for a third consecutive session.
U.S. stocks declined again on Thursday, led lower by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Investors took profits following weeks of outsized gains, even as economic data surprised to the upside. The final reading of second-quarter GDP showed stronger-than-expected growth, and weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts. Despite a roughly 1.5% pullback over the past several days, the S&P 500 remains up nearly 12% year-to-date.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4%, and the S&P 500 lost roughly 0.7%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid around 0.7%.
Big Tech stocks took hits, with Oracle adding to recent losses and Tesla off around 4%.
Economic Takeaways:
- The 10-year yield rose another two basis points to 4.17%, extending a roughly 15-basis-point increase since the Fed’s September 17 meeting.
- The government’s final estimate of second-quarter GDP showed annualized growth of 3.8%, well above the 3.3% consensus forecast, fueled by stronger consumer spending (2.5% versus expectations of 1.7%). The first-quarter import surge—tied to companies stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs—also reversed last quarter.
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects a robust 3.3% annualized growth rate for the third quarter, with consumption still running strong at 2.7%.
- Labor-market data also surprised to the upside, with jobless claims falling to 218,000 last week versus forecasts of 233,000—suggesting the spike to 263,000 two weeks earlier was likely an outlier. Both economic and employment trends will remain closely watched ahead of the Fed’s October 30 FOMC meeting.
- New Commerce Department figures showed new home sales unexpectedly surged in August as mortgage rates eased, drawing some buyers back into the market and unlocking pent-up demand. Still, affordability remains a headwind.
- Cryptocurrencies remained volatile. Bitcoin (/BTC) clawed back some of Wednesday’s losses before sliding 1.8% early Thursday. More than $17 billion in Bitcoin options and $5.3 billion in Ether (/ETH) options are set to expire this week, according to Deribit. Ether fell 3.8% overnight, breaking below its 50-day moving average.
- Sales of existing homes were nearly flat in August, the latest sign that high prices and limited mortgage rate relief are keeping prospective homebuyers sidelined for now. Sales dropped 0.2% last month compared to July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million, according to National Association of Realtors data released Thursday. Economists had been expecting a slightly bigger 1.5% decline.
- President Trump is set to sign an agreement later this week to formalize the spin-off of TikTok’s US operations from China-based ByteDance.
Government Shutdown Risk Elevated but Impact Limited
With the fiscal year ending September 30 and no full-year funding deal in place, Washington faces renewed shutdown risks. Absent a continuing resolution or appropriations bills, the government would partially close on October 1. Shutdowns are not uncommon—20 have occurred since 1976—but are typically brief. The longest, in late 2018, lasted 35 days.
Historically, shutdowns have caused short-term slowdowns but little lasting economic damage in the context of a $30 trillion economy. They tend to delay, rather than erase, spending and activity. From a market standpoint, such events can spark short-term volatility, especially after strong rallies, but have had minimal long-term impact.
Stocks have been positive about half the time during shutdowns and have usually gained three and six months afterward. More broadly, market performance is driven more by growth, earnings, and interest rates than by political standoffs.
Fed Officials Split Over Future Rate Cuts
The debate within the Federal Reserve over how quickly to lower interest rates is becoming more public and more pointed.
On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid signaled unease with moving too aggressively on additional rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks.
By contrast, newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran continued to press for faster easing. In a Bloomberg interview, Miran argued that the current 4%–4.25% policy rate is “highly restrictive” and threatens the U.S. economy.
“That’s why it’s so important to start adjusting more quickly, rather than less quickly,” Miran added in a separate interview with Fox Business on Thursday.
On the Move
- Accenture (ACN) gained 1% in premarket trading after posting revenue and earnings that topped expectations, driven by strong demand for its AI consulting and services.
- CarMax (KMX) plunged 11.2% before the opening bell following disappointing quarterly results on both the top and bottom lines.
- Intel (INTC) rallied 4% in early trading on reports it is seeking an investment from Apple (AAPL) in a business now partially owned by the U.S. government.
- Oracle (ORCL) shares fell more than 4% Thursday as Alex Haissl, an analyst with investing firm Rothschild & Co Redburn, initiated coverage of the stock with a Sell rating.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) tumbled 17% Wednesday after a mudslide at its Grasberg mine forced a reduction in near-term copper and gold production.
- Micron (MU) fell 2.8% Wednesday despite beating estimates and raising forward guidance.
- IBM (IBM) shares rose over 3% Thursday as its customer HSBC (HSBC) saidit has improved its ability to predict market behavior when using IBM’s quantum computers.
- Alibaba (BABA) defied the pullback in AI-related chips, surging more than 8% Wednesday after announcing plans to boost AI spending beyond its original $50 billion target.
- Axon (AXON), maker of TASER devices and other law-enforcement technology, dropped 10.2% even after an upgrade from Piper Sandler.
- Starbucks (SBUX) announced plans to close unprofitable locations and cut corporate jobs as CEO Brian Niccol focuses on the company’s turnaround plan.
- Lithium Americas (LAC) surged another 20% in trading on Thursday, one day after the stock nearly doubled in value. The Trump administration is seeking a stake for the US in the operator of what is set to be the largest lithium mine in the country.
- Cloud computing provider CoreWeave (CRWV) rebounded from an initial drop in morning trading on Thursday after announcing a fresh $6.5 billion deal with OpenAI(PVT).
What’s Ahead
Costco (COST) is expected to report its quarterly results after the bell on Thursday. For the quarter, revenue at the wholesale giant is expected to clock in at $86.03 billion, with adjusted earnings per share forecast to come in at $5.82, per Bloomberg consensus estimates.
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