The Mid-Day Buzz
September 29th, 2025
S&P 500 Inches Higher as Nvidia Leads AI Rebound.
Equity markets started the week with gains on Monday, supported by a risk-on sentiment. Technology and communication stocks led the advance, while energy and utilities lagged.
Internationally, Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight, while European indices were little changed.
The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% Monday while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 72 points, or 0.2%. Nvidia rebounded 2% after last week’s skepticism over the AI trade, with AMD and Micron adding 2% and 3%, respectively.
U.S. stocks slipped last week as cracks emerged in the AI-driven rally. Barclays’ head of U.S. equity strategy Venu Krishna noted in a Monday note that AI capital spending “shows no signs of slowdown,” and that S&P 500’s Tech-heavy mix should help it outperform peers.
With a government funding deadline approaching, the Labor Department said it would suspend all Bureau of Labor Statistics operations if a shutdown occurs. That would delay September’s nonfarm payrolls report and other key releases. President Donald Trump told NBC News mass federal worker firings could happen if a shutdown isn’t avoided.
Despite last week’s pullback, the S&P 500 is up 3% for September, the Dow is up 1%, and the Nasdaq has rallied 5%.
Economic Takeaways:
- Bond yields edged lower, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.14%, slightly above this month’s recent low of 4.0%.
- The U.S. dollar slipped against major global currencies.
- WTI crude oil traded lower amid expectations of OPEC+ production increases.
- Rate-cut expectations remain elevated. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 89% chance of a cut next month and a 68% chance of two by year-end. Yet Treasury yields are moving higher—the 10-year added two basis points Monday to just under 4.20%, its highest in a month, with the 4.25% 50-day average looming as resistance.
- Technically, the S&P 500 bounced off its 20-day moving average Thursday before climbing Friday, “speaking to the resiliency of this bull market and the strength of the uptrend,” said Nathan Peterson, derivatives analysis director at Schwab Center for Financial Research. The 20-day moving average starts the week near 6,568.
- For last week, the S&P 500 dipped 0.31%, the Nasdaq fell 0.65%, the Dow slipped 0.15%, and the Russell 2000® (RUT) was down 0.59%.
- The National Association of Realtors reported that houses under contact increased 4% for the month, much better than the Dow Jones forecast for no change.
- President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he’s going to impose a 100% tariff on movies produced overseas.
Coal Stocks Jump on $625 Million Federal Rescue Plan
Peabody Energy surged nearly 8%, Ramaco Resources rose more than 3%, and Core Natural Resources gained more than 1% after the Trump administration announced $625 million in support for coal plants, including $350 million for upgrades and recommissioning. The Interior Department will also open 13.1 million acres of federal land for coal leasing.
Fed’s Hammack: Policy Decisions Getting Harder Amid Stubborn Inflation
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said Monday the central bank faces a difficult balancing act as it tries to tame persistent inflation without undermining the labor market.
“I remain concerned about where we are on inflation,” Hammack told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe. “We’ve missed our 2% target for more than four-and-a-half years, and I continue to see price pressures—headline, core, and especially in services.”
Asked if the Fed might be cutting rates too soon given the economic backdrop, she called it “a challenging time for monetary policy,” noting the central bank is under pressure from both sides of its dual mandate.
Government Shutdown Risk Looms
With the fiscal year ending September 30 and no finalized funding agreement, a U.S. government shutdown could begin October 1. While the House recently passed a short-term funding measure, the bill faced resistance in the Senate as Democrats push to reverse certain health care cuts enacted earlier this year. If an agreement is not reached, nonessential federal operations would halt, furloughing employees and pausing select services until funding is restored.
On the Move
- Alibaba shares rose 4% after Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $200 following the company’s Apsara Conference. Analyst Gary Yu cited stronger cloud demand, AI model upgrades, and overseas expansion, expecting cloud growth to accelerate to 32% in FY26 and 40% in FY27.
- Electronic Arts (EA) surged more than 13% Friday after The Wall Street Journal reported the video game giant is nearing a go-private deal. Shares added another 6% Monday morning after CNBC said EA had agreed to be acquired in an all-cash transaction worth $55 billion.
- Novo Nordisk could be due for even more losses over the coming months, spurred by a pullback in the growth rate of U.S. GLP-1 prescriptions, according to Morgan Stanley.
- Tesla (TSLA) regained momentum Friday with a 4% gain ahead of its upcoming quarterly auto-sales report. Second-quarter production totaled just over 410,000 vehicles, but shares fell last Thursday on European data showing a sales slump, CNBC noted.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbled nearly 5% Friday as other major tech names also paused. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Oracle (ORCL), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Palantir (PLTR) were among the hardest hit amid concerns the AI sector had become overbought—though all traded higher pre-market Monday.
- Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1% before the open after coming under pressure last week over uncertainty surrounding several big deals, including its up-to-$100 billion investment in OpenAI.
- Lam Research (LRCX) climbed 3.3% early Monday after a Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy from Hold. Novo Nordisk (NVO) dropped 3% after Morgan Stanley cut its rating to Underweight, citing slower U.S. weight-loss prescription growth and rising competition. Intel (INTC), last week’s S&P 500 leader on partnership speculation, slipped nearly 2% Monday morning.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) rebounded 2.7% in early trading after falling to one-month lows last week.
- Cannabis stocks — The group surged after President Donald Trump posted a video on Truth Social touting the benefits of cannabinoids for seniors. The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF (MSOS) ripped 22% higher. Aurora Cannabis jumped 14%.
- Semiconductor equipment maker Lam Research climbed 3% after a Deutsche Bank upgrade to buy from hold. The bank said Lam Research will benefit an improving outlook for wafer fabrication equipment and a valuation that’s somewhat in line with peers.
What’s Ahead
China’s official September manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data are due tonight, U.S. time, with manufacturing expected to remain in contraction below 50.
If the latest jobs report is released on Friday as expected, economists anticipate employment growth of about 40,000—an improvement over August’s weak 22,000 but still far below the past year’s average. For context, monthly job creation exceeded 100,000 as recently as April and was above 200,000 in both November and December of last year.
On Tuesday, investors will also get fresh data on August job openings after the market opens. While the broader earnings season is still weeks away, Nike (NKE) will post results after Tuesday’s close, offering a window into consumer spending trends and the company’s response to tariff pressures under its new management team. Nike’s revenue beat expectations last quarter but was still down 12% year over year.
Meanwhile, last week’s profit-taking in AI-related stocks remains a market trend worth monitoring.
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