The Mid-Day Buzz
September 30th, 2025
Markets open lower, but September is still set for a strong finish.
U.S. equities are slipping in early Tuesday trading as investors weighed labor-market data and the risk of a government shutdown. Despite the morning pullback, the S&P 500 remains on pace for a 2.9% gain in September. Sector performance is uneven: technology and health care are leading the way, while energy and communication services lag.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led losses, falling around 0.4%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid around 0.3%, coming off modest closing gains on Wall Street.
Overseas, Asian markets closed mixed after China’s manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside but stayed below 50, signaling ongoing contraction.
Economic Takeaways:
- Bond yields edged down, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.11%, off its September peak but still above the recent 4.0% low.
- The U.S. dollar is easing against major peers.
- WTI crude prices are down amid expectations of higher OPEC+ production.
- The S&P 500 energy sector fell nearly 2% Monday amid speculation that OPEC+ could approve another production increase this week. Halliburton (HAL) slipped 1.6% this morning, while Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined nearly 1%. Separately, Bloomberg reported Exxon Mobil plans to cut around 2,000 jobs worldwide, or roughly 3%–4% of its workforce.
- September is set to close on a strong note for equities. The S&P 500 has gained more than 3% so far this month and 7.4% for the quarter, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 5.3% in September and nearly 11% for the quarter. According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 is on track for its best September in 15 years, supported by optimism around AI and recent Fed rate cuts.
- Odds of a rate cut next month stand at 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while markets place the probability of two cuts by year-end at 69%.
- US consumer confidence fell in September as Americans worried about inflation and became concerned about future job availability. The Conference Board’sConsumer Confidence Index declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2 from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index, which tracks consumers’ views on current business and labor market conditions, dropped 7 points to 125.4.
US Job Openings Rise Modestly in August Amid Labor Market Softening
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job openings in the U.S. edged up slightly in August, reflecting a labor market that is beginning to soften. Openings increased by 19,000, reaching 7.23 million, roughly in line with expectations of 7.2 million. Meanwhile, the number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs, or quits, held steady at 3.1 million.
Sector-level data showed declines in openings for construction (-115,000) and the federal government (-61,000), suggesting pockets of weakening demand even as overall job opportunities remained broadly stable.
This report takes on added significance as lawmakers face a looming government shutdown on Wednesday, which could delay the release of the September jobs report. A delayed report may complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision-making at its upcoming October 28–29 policy meeting, as officials weigh labor market trends alongside inflation and other economic indicators.
Investors will still receive private payrolls data from ADP on Wednesday, offering a partial glimpse into employment trends. “The totality of the data plus the policy standoff in Washington is creating a much greater degree of difficulty for the Fed to stick the landing here,” said RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. “They’re going to have a hard time discerning what’s what ahead of the October policy meeting.”
Overall, while the U.S. labor market remains resilient, the modest rise in job openings, combined with softer quits and sector-specific declines, signals that the pace of hiring and worker mobility may be cooling.
Will there be a government shutdown?
Markets are preparing for a potential government shutdown after President Trump and Republican leaders met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday but failed to reach an agreement to maintain funding. “I think we’re headed to a shutdown,” Vice President JD Vance remarked following the meeting.
Lawmakers now have until 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday to finalize a deal, or the federal government could experience its first funding lapse since 2019. According to Polymarket, the odds of a shutdown currently hover around 85%.
On the Move
- Bitcoin (/BTC) climbed nearly 5% yesterday as it continued rebounding from recent weakness, lifting shares of crypto-related names Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
- Major technology stocks advanced Monday as concerns over AI that weighed on the sector last week eased, at least temporarily. AppLovin (APP), CoreWeave (CRWV), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML (ASML), and Nvidia (NVDA) all gained ground. Electronic Arts (EA) rose more than 4% after news it is being taken private, adding further support to tech’s rally.
- CoreWeave jumped another 8.4% this morning after announcing a deal to provide Meta Platforms (META) with up to $14 billion in computing power, Bloomberg reported.
- Spotify (SPOT) slid nearly 4% this morning following the announcement that CEO Daniel Ek will step down. The stock also faced a downgrade from Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy, with analysts noting that current levels already reflect much of Spotify’s future growth.
- Celsius Holdings (CELH) gained almost 4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing expectations for stronger-than-anticipated top-line growth.
- Wolfspeed (WOLF) surged 22% in early trading after the company said it had successfully exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to Barron’s. Management emphasized it now has “ample liquidity” to continue meeting customer demand.
- Vail Resorts (MTN) fell 2% in early trading after reporting a larger-than-expected quarterly adjusted loss and a 3% decline in pass product sales on a unit basis, Barron’s noted.
- EchoStar (SATS) rallied 7.2% after Bloomberg reported Verizon (VZ) is in discussions to acquire portions of its wireless spectrum.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) advanced 2% early Tuesday after Bank of America upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, pointing to greater confidence that current valuations account for risks tied to the temporary suspension of its Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia.
- Robinhood (HOOD) soared as CEO Vlad Tenev revealed on X that Robinhood’s prediction markets surpassed 4 billion event contracts traded.
What’s Ahead
Consumer bellwether Nike (NKE) reports after the close today as the company continues efforts to revive sales.
Investors are also awaiting a busy week of labor-market updates, though a potential government shutdown could delay some releases
Friday’s September payrolls report is expected to show 50,000 new jobs—an improvement from August’s 22,000—while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 3.7% year-over-year, matching August’s pace. With job openings slightly below the 7.4 million unemployed, the labor market continues to cool without signaling a collapse. Importantly, wage growth is still outpacing inflation (2.9% CPI), boosting real incomes and helping sustain consumer spending—key to ongoing economic and labor-market resilience.
Bitcoin traders will be looking for a measure of clarity this week. Jobs data could offer clues to how aggressively the Fed will look to cut rates in the months ahead.
Without a funding deal, large parts of the federal government could close starting Wednesday, October 1. The House recently passed a stopgap bill, but the measure faces hurdles in the Senate, where Democrats oppose health care cuts included in the summer tax legislation. If lawmakers fail to compromise, nonessential agencies will suspend operations and furlough workers until funding is restored.
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