The Mid-Day Buzz
October 1st, 2025
Stocks, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar all declined, while market volatility spiked, as investors grew increasingly worried that the government shutdown could drag on. Adding to the cautious mood, a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report fueled fresh concerns about the strength of the economy.
Overall, the U.S. government shutdown comes at a unique time for equity investors as well. The S&P 500 has rallied over 30% since the April 8 lows, without a 5% or higher correction.
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite turned positive, rising over 0.1%, after beginning the session in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly flat.
Economic Takeaways:
- ADP private sector employment fell by 32,000 in September, well below consensus of 40,000 jobs added and likely to spur fresh concern about the labor picture. ADP also sliced its August report to down 3,000 from up 54,000.
- Government jobs could be in jeopardy as President Trump threatens firings.
- The CME FedWatch Tool still prices in nearly 95% chances of a rate cut later this month.
- Gold (/GC) and silver (/SI) futures climbed today. Silver is up around 16% over the last month and gold is up 11% as global fiscal worries and rising deficits threaten currencies.
- S. mortgage demand dropped 12.7% last week, according to the MBA Mortgage Applications Index.
- September ended with major indexes up for the month, bucking the historic trend of weak Septembers. The S&P 500 index rose 3.53% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 5.6%. The Russell 2000®(RUT) climbed nearly 3%. It was the best September since 2010.
- Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors bought the safety of US bonds amid the first government shutdown in nearly seven years. The 10-year yield fell nearly four basis points to 4.11%, while the 30-year yield dipped three basis points to 4.7%, before both rebounded slightly.
U.S. Government Shutdown: Key Takeaways, Market Impact, and What Could Be Different This Time
What happened?
At midnight on September 30, the U.S. government officially entered its 22nd shutdown since 1976. Lawmakers failed to pass either a stopgap continuing resolution or the full set of appropriations bills needed to keep agencies funded. The Republican-backed measure fell short in the Senate, 55–45, leaving large portions of the federal government unfunded.
At the heart of the dispute are healthcare provisions. Democrats have pushed to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits that keep insurance premiums lower for more than 20 million Americans, while also opposing Medicaid cuts and broader reductions to public health agency budgets. With no deal, the lapse in funding triggered immediate furloughs for nonessential federal employees and the suspension of certain services. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that roughly 750,000 government workers will be sidelined.
Here’s What to Expect
Essential operations like Social Security, Medicare, and air-traffic control continue, but families relying on federal assistance may face delays, mortgage approvals requiring flood insurance are paused, and national parks are closed. Travelers could also see longer airport lines as TSA and air traffic staff work without pay.
Wall Street is watching closely: the shutdown means no jobs report this Friday and no inflation update on Oct. 15, leaving the Federal Reserve with less data ahead of its late-October policy meeting. Economists warn that each week of shutdown trims U.S. growth, with risks mounting if the standoff drags on.
Supreme Court Allows Lisa Cook to Stay on Federal Reserve as Legal Battle Over Removal Looms
The Supreme Court has allowed Lisa Cook to remain in her role as a Federal Reserve governor while it prepares to hear arguments in January over whether former President Donald Trump has the authority to remove her from the central bank.
The ruling represents a setback for Trump, who has been seeking Cook’s immediate dismissal in an effort to influence the leadership of the nation’s central bank. The Justice Department filed an emergency request on September 18, asking the Supreme Court to lift a federal judge’s order that blocked Trump from removing Cook over allegations related to mortgage fraud.
Cook, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, urged the Supreme Court last Thursday to deny Trump’s request. Her legal team argued that forcing her removal now would undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and risk destabilizing financial markets.
“Granting the President’s request for immediate relief to alter the status quo would sound the death knell for the central-bank independence that has helped make the United States’ economy the strongest in the world,” Cook’s lawyers wrote in their filing.
The Supreme Court’s decision to maintain the current status quo means Cook will continue her duties at the Fed until the case is fully reviewed early next year, ensuring continuity at the central bank during a period of potential economic uncertainty.
On the Move
- Nike (NKE) topped Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue after reporting late Tuesday, sending shares nearly 5% higher in early trading. Investors welcomed signs that the company’s turnaround strategy is gaining traction. Still, Nike stock remains down 8% year-to-date, with constant-currency sales slipping 1% from last year. For the current quarter, the company guided to a low single-digit sales decline, in line with forecasts.
- Nucor (NUE) slipped 0.6% following reports that the European Union may impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel.
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) edged 0.5% higher after The Wall Street Journal said Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is in talks to acquire its petrochemical unit for about $10 billion.
- Ford’s (F) US sales surged in the third quarter, led by its trucks and electrified vehicles. Ford said it was the seventh consecutive month of sales gains for the automaker.
- Conagra (CAG) rose 1.6% as quarterly results came in stronger than expected. Revenue fell 6% year over year but still beat estimates, and the company reaffirmed its guidance.
- Bitcoin (BTC) gained more than 2%, nearing a two-week high as falling Treasury yields and uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown supported crypto demand. Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) advanced 2% and 3%, respectively.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped 11% after Bloomberg reported the company struck a deal to provide Meta Platforms (META) with up to $14 billion in computing power.
- Pharma stocks surged, with Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), and Eli Lilly (LLY) rallying 4%–6% after the Trump administration unveiled plans for a program to sell drugs directly to consumers.
- Sunrun (RUN) climbed 5% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy, citing strong growth potential into 2026.
- Peloton (PLTN) rose 2% ahead of the launch of five new AI-focused products, according to CNN.
- AES (AES) skyrocketed nearly 12% after the Financial Times reported BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners is nearing a $38 billion deal to acquire the utility.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) slid over 2% after TD Cowen downgraded shares to Hold from Buy, pointing to competitive pressures in electro-optics.
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) gained 1% following an upgrade from Jefferies to Buy ahead of next week’s earnings, with analysts expecting margin expansion.
What’s Ahead
The BLS is set to release the September jobs report on Friday. But the nonfarm payrolls update is likely to be delayed, as BLS plans to “completely cease operations” with just one full-time employee kept in post.
October 2: August factory orders.
October 3: September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate and ISM Services PMI®.
October 6: Expected earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ).
October 7: Expected earnings from McCormick (MKC).
October 8: FOMC meeting minutes.
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