The Mid-Day Buzz
October 2nd, 2025
Stocks are steady as markets weigh Government shutdown impact.
U.S. equities opened little changed on Thursday as investors assessed the second day of the federal government shutdown. Sector performance is mixed, with technology and energy stocks advancing while real estate and consumer staples lag.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose above the flatline, paring sizable early gains. The S&P 500 declined 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 0.2%.
Overseas, Asian markets closed broadly higher, led by South Korea’s Kospi, which hit a record high. Samsung and SK Hynix shares surged after the companies announced a partnership to supply chips to AI leader OpenAI.
European stocks are also in positive territory, shrugging off a rise in Eurozone unemployment to 6.3% in August, above expectations for 6.2%.
Economic Takeaways:
- The U.S. dollar is rebounding against major currencies.
- WTI crude remains near a four-month low on oversupply concerns.
- Treasury yields are climbing, with the 10-year note at 4.11%.
- Key labor-market releases are being pushed back due to the funding lapse. Weekly jobless claims, expected today at 223,000 versus 218,000 previously, will not be published. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also confirmed the September jobs report will not be released on Friday. Economists had been looking for payroll growth of 50,000 last month, up from 22,000 in August, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and annual wage growth at 3.7%.
- The shutdown began October 1 after Congress failed to reach a funding deal before the September 30 deadline. The House passed a short-term measure, but the Senate has resisted, with Democrats seeking to roll back health-care cuts included in this summer’s tax package. Nonessential federal services have now begun closing, with workers furloughed until funding is restored. The sectors most affected by the staff reduction are government—as almost 290,000 Federal workers were impacted by DOGE cuts—technology and retail. On Wednesday, ADP reported a 32,000-decrease in private-sector payrolls in September following a revised decline of 3,000 the previous month.
- Large financials ended mostly lower as falling long-term yields squeezed margins, weighing on bank profitability.
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets still pricing in nearly 100% odds of a rate cut this month, with an 86% chance of two cuts by year-end.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) is edging closer to the $120,000 level. Crypto-linked names Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are each up more than 2% in pre-market trade.
- The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the U.S. has inched up for a second straight week to 6.34%.
- Hiring plans among U.S. employers for the year through September fell to their lowest level since 2009, highlighting the labor market’s continued stagnation. The decline was driven largely by a sharp pullback in seasonal hiring announcements, according to a Thursday report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Washington’s Crypto Move is Gaining Momentum
A sweeping cryptocurrency market-structure bill remains under debate in the Senate, but the Trump administration’s push to make the U.S. “the crypto capital of the world” is advancing on several regulatory fronts.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is exploring ways to let stocks trade on blockchains in the same manner as digital tokens, holding talks with the New York Stock Exchange. The Information reports that this type of trading—known as tokenization—could launch “quickly.”
In a separate move, the SEC authorized state-chartered trust companies that aren’t banks to custody crypto assets on behalf of institutional investors nationwide. The decision expands the pool of approved crypto custodians, though one commissioner dissented, warning that state-level oversight can be uneven and less stringent than federal standards.
At the same time, the White House pulled Brian Quintenz’s nomination to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees crypto derivatives. Quintenz, a long-time ally of the industry, blamed his derailment on opposition from Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss—founders of Gemini and prominent Trump donors—over his handling of a past CFTC enforcement action against the exchange.
On the Move
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) unveiled its largest acquisition since 2022, agreeing to purchase Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) petrochemical unit, OxyChem, for $9.7 billion. BRK is fractionally lower in pre-market trading, while OXY is up 1.3%.
- Fair Isaac (FICO) is set to open more than 15% higher after launching a system that gives mortgage lenders direct access to FICO scores. Rivals TransUnion (TRU) and Equifax (EFX) are each down about 8% in response.
- Intel (INTC) climbed 7% yesterday after reports it is in early talks to bring Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) on as a foundry customer—a potential boost to its U.S. chip-manufacturing strategy. Shares are pulling back slightly ahead of the open.
- Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Biogen (BIIB), Amgen (AMGN), and Regeneron (REGN) all posted strong gains yesterday. While early, the move may point to a rotation into health care as investors seek value and dividends amid falling Treasury yields. Lower rates could also ease R&D costs and spur M&A activity across biotech.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged more than 9% yesterday, extending gains in pre-market trading. The move appears tied to broader tech strength and speculative buying interest following two months of weakness, with no major news driving the rally.
- R. Horton (DHI), PulteGroup (PHM), Lennar (LEN), and KB Home (KBH) gained Wednesday despite softer mortgage applications. Lower yields and rate-cut expectations buoyed the sector, while smaller banks may also benefit if lending activity picks up.
- OpenAI’s (OPAI.PVT) valuation soared to $500 billionafter an employee share sale, boosting tech rally hopes despite fears of an AI bubble.
- Fermi (FRMI) stock swung back and forth on Thursday after rising over 54% in its first day of trading on Wednesday.
- Shares of the data center REIT rose 9% in premarket trading before dipping 3% lower.
- Tesla (TSLA) reported third quarter global deliveries that blew past estimates, initially lifting the stock about 3% at the open. However, shares of the electric vehicle maker gave way in early trading, falling by 1% as of 9:45 a.m. ET.
What’s Ahead
October 6: Expected earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ).
October 7: Expected earnings from McCormick (MKC).
October 8: FOMC meeting minutes.
October 9: Expected earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Levi Strauss
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