Traders are betting big on a further rise in oil prices, snapping up $80 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil call options in volumes not seen since January, following Israeli airstrikes on Iran that stoked fears of a broader regional conflict.
Call options give holders the right to purchase futures at a preset price and date, and increased activity in these contracts is often viewed as a barometer of market sentiment.
On Friday, 33,411 August 2025 WTI $80 call contracts changed hands, according to CME Group data. That surge came amid a total daily volume of 681,000 contracts and marks the highest level of trading for that specific strike this year. The previous peak was January 10, when 17,030 February 2025 $80 calls traded in a session that saw 301,866 contracts overall.
WTI crude surged Friday, ending the day up $4.94, or 7.62%, to settle at $72.98 per barrel. At one point, it spiked more than 14% to $77.62—its highest intraday level since January 21—as military action between Israel and Iran renewed geopolitical risks that had taken a backseat amid worries about slowing global growth and increased supply from OPEC+.
With fears of oversupply giving way to fresh concerns about regional instability, the market’s focus has shifted back to potential disruptions.
Here’s what analysts are saying:
ING:
“If Iran’s midstream and upstream assets are targeted, as much as 1.7 million barrels per day of export supply could be at risk,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. “This scenario could see Brent spiking to $80 a barrel, although we believe prices will likely settle around $75.”
He added that “if continued escalation leads to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz,” around 14 million barrels per day could be jeopardized, pushing oil prices to $120. “If disruptions persist towards the end of the year, we could see Brent trading to new record highs, surpassing the record high of close to $150 in 2008.”
Saxo Markets:
“Oil could spike toward $80 if Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks materialize, but rising OPEC+ output may cap gains and revive oversupply concerns into autumn,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets Ltd. in Singapore.
She warned that “a worst-case scenario — such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a disruption to Iran’s 2.1 million barrels per day in exports — could have serious implications for global oil supply and inflation expectations.”
Rystad Energy:
Mukesh Sahdev, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy A/S, noted that “Iran’s oil output has recovered since 2019 on higher Chinese buying, with production recently as high as 4 million barrels a day.” He cautioned that “Iran’s potential retaliation and blockage of the Straits of Hormuz can pose a risk to crude supplies,” but also said, “given the stated US goal of negotiation, it is unlikely that the conflict will escalate into a full-blown war.”
Westpac Banking
“Given that the strikes appear to have been directed more at the Iranian military general staff, including the head of the IRGC and senior nuclear scientists, and that the US was not involved, that suggests that what we saw today was more of a pre-emptive strike and less of a sustained military conflict,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp.
“Traders will, however, be super-focused on Iran’s response and how targeted it is on Israel, versus proxy attacks. Risks going into the weekend are very high, and a push above the January highs for crude is very possible,” he added.
Still, Rennie noted that “bigger picture, we remain of the view that, as we move into the third quarter, we will see prices probing the lower end of the $60 to $65 range, with risks of prices below $60 as we move into the fourth quarter.”
Phillip Nova
“Due to the worsening situation, oil investors appear to be securing more supplies before the weekend,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova Pte in Singapore. “Some technical short-covering may be occurring after a significant rise of 15% in oil prices in June, which has contributed to an upward trend.”
MST Marquee
“The scope of this attack is at the more severe end of the range than most anticipated for any attack,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee. He warned that Iranian retaliation “could see the US and other parties in the region drawn in.”
Kavonic added, “The conflict would need to escalate to the point of Iranian retaliation on oil infrastructure in the region before oil supply is actually materially impacted. Iran could hinder up to 20 million barrels per day of oil supply via attacks on infrastructure or limiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz in an extreme scenario. There is no sign of this yet.”
Oil Brokerage
“A threat of war in the Middle East is material to freight rates,” said Anoop Singh, Oil Brokerage Ltd.’s global head of shipping research. “There isn’t a deterministic path to this brewing conflict, however a short-term spike in freight rates is likely.”
Singh noted that at least 15% of the global very-large crude carrier (VLCC) fleet is typically in the Middle East Gulf at any given time, with around 20 VLCCs passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Qisheng Futures
“The crude oil market is projected to have around a $3 to $5 short-term upside potential” based on the market reaction after the earlier two rounds of conflict between Iran and Israel in 2024, said Gao Jian, a Shandong-based analyst at Qisheng Futures Co. He noted that prices had already factored in some degree of escalation even before the latest strike.
SDIC Essence Futures
While underlying macroeconomic and supply-demand dynamics may not support a dramatic surge in prices, “investors may consider buying low-cost call options to hedge against extreme geopolitical risks,” said Gao Mingyu, chief energy analyst at SDIC Essence Futures Co. “Once the geopolitical situation becomes clearer, they can then position for short-selling at higher levels.”
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