U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated further in September as households weighed a combination of persistent inflation pressures, mounting job market concerns and the ripple effects of trade policy. According to preliminary data released Friday by the University of Michigan, its closely watched Survey of Consumers fell to 55.4 this month from 58.2 in August — a 4.8% decline that marks the weakest reading since May. Compared with a year earlier, the headline sentiment index is now down by roughly 21%, underscoring how unsettled the public feels about the economic outlook.
Survey director Joanne Hsu said respondents continued to identify “multiple vulnerabilities” across the economy, citing heightened risks to business conditions, employment and prices. “Consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month,” she noted. While year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%, the share of people mentioning tariffs and trade disputes without prompting remained elevated, suggesting that concerns over President Trump’s import levies are weighing on perceptions of both inflation and job security.
That unease about employment prospects has deepened. Hsu highlighted that in recent months the proportion of consumers expecting weaker job conditions in the year ahead has climbed to levels not seen since the Great Recession. Preliminary September figures showed roughly 65% of respondents now anticipate higher unemployment over the next 12 months — up from about 60% earlier this year.
The latest survey results arrive amid a string of sobering labor-market and inflation updates. Government revisions released this week showed payrolls shrinking by 13,000 in June — the first net monthly job loss since December 2020 — and downward adjustments to employment figures for the 12 months through March 2025 revealed the economy had 911,000 fewer workers than initially reported. Separately, a New York Fed survey published Monday found the perceived probability of landing a job after losing one’s current position at its lowest point in data going back to June 2013.
Inflation readings added to the sense of strain. The Consumer Price Index increased 2.9% year-over-year in August, according to data released Thursday, reflecting persistent price pressures even as the Federal Reserve prepares for its next policy decision. Taken together, the reports paint a picture of an economy where households are increasingly worried not just about rising costs but also about whether their jobs and incomes will hold up in the months ahead.
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