United Airlines reported second-quarter earnings that surpassed estimates, with CEO Scott Kirby expressing growing confidence in travel demand after a challenging start to 2025.
The airline now expects adjusted earnings between $9 and $11 per share for the year, down from an earlier forecast of $11.50 to $13.50 per share. This updated guidance still falls close to analysts’ $10-per-share estimate. For the third quarter, United expects adjusted earnings between $2.25 and $2.75 per share, aligning with Wall Street expectations.
“The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year,” Kirby said.
Travel demand, especially from more price-sensitive domestic flyers, started the year weaker than anticipated, causing airfares to drop. However, premium cabin revenue grew 5.6% year-over-year, indicating continued consumer willingness to pay for added comfort. Basic economy sales also rose 1.7%.
United’s second-quarter revenue increased 1.7% year-over-year to $15.24 billion but fell slightly short of the $15.35 billion expected by analysts. Net income dropped 26% to $973 million, or $2.97 per share. On an adjusted basis, the company earned $1.27 billion or $3.87 per share, beating the $3.81 estimate.
Unit revenue declined 4%, with domestic passenger revenue per seat mile down 7%. While international revenue has been a bright spot, United’s Europe segment saw a 2.2% revenue decline year-over-year.
United also highlighted ongoing operational constraints at its Newark Liberty International Airport hub, which reduced second-quarter pretax margins by 1.2 percentage points and is expected to cut third-quarter margins by 0.9 points. Analyst Tom Fitzgerald from TD Cowen estimated this hit amounted to $218 million in the second quarter and $140 million in the third.
In April, amid economic uncertainty, United had issued two earnings scenarios: $11.50 to $13.50 per share in a stable environment and $7 to $9 per share in a recessionary environment. Kirby emphasized the company builds conservatism into its forecasts due to unexpected events early in the year but noted there is “upside” if demand remains strong.
Rival Delta Air Lines recently reinstated a lower full-year forecast and plans to reduce capacity after the peak summer travel season ends around mid-August.
American Airlines and Southwest Airlines are expected to report their earnings next week.
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