Tech stocks led the charge on Friday, pushing major indices higher and wrapping up the week with strong gains. The Nasdaq Composite surged 0.98% to close at a record 21,450.02, hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 0.78%, finishing at 6,389.45, just shy of its own record close. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 206.97 points, or 0.47%, ending at 44,175.61.
For the week, all three major indexes posted solid advances: the Dow climbed about 1.4%, the S&P 500 added 2.4%, and the Nasdaq led with a 3.9% gain.
Apple was a standout, boosting the tech sector across the board. The iPhone maker’s shares jumped 13% this week, fueled by its announcement to invest roughly $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years — a move aimed at winning favor with President Donald Trump. This marked Apple’s best weekly performance since July 2020.Bottom of Form
Europe’s major indexes edged higher, while Asia-Pacific markets closed mostly lower, with Japan posting gains.
Outlook
The stock market is poised for a potentially volatile week ahead, with key inflation data and earnings reports potentially impacting recent gains. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached record highs, some strategists anticipate a possible pullback after a strong rally.
Economic Headlines
Fed’s Bowman: Weak Jobs Data Bolsters Case for Three Rate Cuts in 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday that the latest slowdown in U.S. hiring has strengthened her view that the central bank should cut interest rates three times this year. Speaking at the Kansas Bankers Association, Bowman warned that recent labor data highlights “greater risks to the employment side of our dual mandate” and argued that acting sooner could help prevent a deeper downturn.
Bowman was one of two governors to dissent last month when the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. She said the July jobs report—showing unemployment at 4.2% and sharply revised hiring figures averaging just 35,000 jobs per month—underscored her concern about softening labor demand. While many Fed officials have been cautious due to potential inflationary effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Bowman said recent inflation trends suggest underlying price pressures are “much closer” to the Fed’s 2% goal.
With three policy meetings remaining in 2025, Bowman said gradual rate cuts from the current “moderately restrictive” stance would reduce the need for a larger correction if the labor market weakens further. She also expressed confidence that Trump administration tax cuts and deregulation could offset the economic drag from import levies, easing fears that tariffs will cause persistent inflation.
Trump’s Tariffs Hit Highest Levels Since the Great Depression as Global Trade Tensions Escalate
President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff regime officially took effect Thursday, lifting the average U.S. import tax rate above 17%—the highest level since the 1930s—and triggering fresh uncertainty in financial markets. While the Nasdaq managed to close at a record high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 224 points, or 0.51%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.08% as investors weighed the potential impact on inflation, jobs, and global trade.
The White House’s “reciprocal” tariff policy now applies to countries representing roughly 60% of the world’s GDP, with steep levies on steel, aluminum, autos, and critical minerals already in force. Sector-specific hikes on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, aircraft, and other goods are expected in the coming weeks—some reaching 100% to 250%. Trump also warned of additional “secondary sanctions” against nations buying Russian energy, including a threatened 50% total tariff on Indian imports if New Delhi doesn’t stop purchasing Russian oil by August 27.
Alongside the tariff rollout, Trump nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and a key architect of his trade agenda, to a temporary seat on the Federal Reserve Board. If confirmed, Miran would likely join other voices at the Fed calling for lower interest rates.
While the administration touts its new trade arrangements as building “a new global trading order,” many agreements remain provisional and could take years to finalize. Critics—from corporate leaders to economists—warn the aggressive tariff strategy risks stalling growth and sparking retaliatory measures abroad. Still, Trump’s advisers say the president is emboldened and sees tariffs as his go-to tool for reshaping both U.S. economic policy and the global trade landscape.
Second Quarter Earnings Season Nears End with Mostly Upbeat Results Despite Economic Uncertainty
The second-quarter corporate earnings season is drawing to a close, and so far, the tone has been largely positive. Most companies have managed to clear the lowered bar set earlier in the year, delivering stronger-than-expected results even against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, ongoing trade tensions, and questions about U.S. growth.
Heading into the quarter, Wall Street analysts had tempered their forecasts. President Trump’s tariffs, elevated stock valuations, and concerns over the resilience of the U.S. economy had already set the stage for cautious expectations. The S&P 500 was projected to post just 5% year-over-year earnings growth in Q2 — which would have been the slowest pace since the final quarter of 2023. Instead, corporate America has largely surprised to the upside.
In recent days, investors heard from an array of household names and market movers — including Tyson Foods (TSN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Snap (SNAP), McDonald’s (MCD), Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), and Palantir (PLTR). The coming week will bring reports from companies such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Cava Group (CAVA), Cisco Systems (CSCO), CoreWeave (CRWV), Deere & Co. (DE), On Holding (ONON), and Oklo (OKLO).
Economic Data:
- ISM Services: Declined by 0.7% from June to 50.1% and below the 51.0% expected. Within the report, the Employment Index declined 0.8% to 46.4% and the Prices Index increased 2.4% from the prior month to 69.9. This represents the highest reading on the Prices Index since October of 2022.
- S&P Global U.S. Services PMI – Final: Rose 2.8 points to a seven-month high of 55.7.
- Factory Orders: -4.8% vs. -3.5% expected.
- Productivity – Preliminary: 2.4% vs. 2.0% expected.
- Unit Labor Costs-Preliminary: +1.6% vs. +1.7% expected.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Increased 7K to 226K versus last week’s 219K, and above the 220K expected. Continuing Claims increased 38K from last week to 1.971M, suggesting hiring sluggishness.
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow “nowcast” for Q2 GDP was revised up to +2.5% on Tuesday from +2.3% last week.
FactSet: S&P 500 Earnings Growth Hits Double Digits
According to data from FactSet, with 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, the blended earnings growth rate for the index in Q2 stands at 11.8% year-over-year. If this figure holds, it would mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth. The majority of companies — more than 80% — have reported both positive earnings-per-share surprises and revenue beats, underscoring broad-based strength.
For the third quarter, corporate guidance is mixed. FactSet reports that 38 companies have issued negative EPS guidance, while 40 have offered positive projections. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 now sits at 22.1 — above both the five-year average of 19.9 and the ten-year average of 18.5, suggesting valuations remain elevated.
Company Highlights: Winners and Losers
Wendy’s topped analysts’ expectations on both revenue and earnings in Q2, reporting sales of $560.9 million and EPS of $0.29 (versus forecasts of $558 million and $0.25, respectively). However, the fast-food chain’s weaker-than-expected full-year outlook dampened investor enthusiasm, sending shares down about 1% in premarket trading. Wendy’s now expects adjusted EPS of $0.82 to $0.89 for 2025, below its earlier range of $0.92 to $0.98. It also sees global systemwide sales falling 3% to 5%, compared with its previous forecast of flat to a 2% decline. U.S. sales fell 3.3% in Q2, driving a 1.8% drop in total sales to $3.7 billion.
Shares of digital advertising platform Trade Desk (TTD) plunged more than 38% in premarket trading on Friday after CEO Jeff Green warned that tariff-related uncertainty is weighing on spending by some of its largest global advertisers. The company reported Q2 earnings of $0.18 per share, in line with estimates, on revenue of $694 million, which topped expectations. However, concerns about its heavy reliance on large brands — many in tariff-exposed industries — fueled fears that growth may slow. Analysts also noted that TTD’s growth lagged Meta’s 22% increase, raising questions about the pace of expansion in the open internet versus “walled garden” platforms.
In contrast, SoundHound AI (SOUN) surged 24% in premarket trading after reporting record revenue in Q2, fueled by surging demand for AI-driven automation solutions. The company posted revenue of $42.7 million, up 217% from a year earlier, as it expanded into new verticals such as restaurants, hospitals, and automotive. While SoundHound reported a GAAP loss of $0.19 per share (versus a $0.11 loss last year), investors cheered the company’s rapid growth trajectory and broadening enterprise adoption.
The Road Ahead
With only a handful of major companies left to report — including Nvidia (NVDA) on August 27 — the Q2 earnings season is effectively in its final stretch. The results so far suggest that U.S. corporations remain resilient despite trade disruptions, a high-interest-rate environment, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Still, clouds remain on the horizon. Tariffs are already influencing guidance in sectors from advertising to manufacturing, while stretched valuations leave the market vulnerable to disappointment. Analysts will be watching closely to see whether the momentum from the first half of the year can carry into the fall, particularly as the Federal Reserve debates potential rate cuts and the broader economy navigates an uneven growth outlook.
Crypto News
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to ease regulations and facilitate the inclusion of alternative assets within 401(k) retirement plans. This landmark move aims to open the door for millions of Americans to diversify their retirement portfolios by adding cryptocurrencies, private equity, and other non-traditional investments.
“The President is committed to expanding investment choices for American workers to help them achieve stronger, more financially secure retirements,” the White House said in an official statement.
What to Watch:
Looking ahead to next week, investors will be watching several high-impact events that could stir market volatility. On the economic front, the monthly inflation updates—Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—will provide fresh insight into pricing pressures across the economy. These will be accompanied by the monthly Retail Sales report, offering a critical read on consumer spending trends at a time when the strength of the U.S. consumer remains a central question for the market.
Earnings season will also continue, with a slate of closely watched names reporting results, including Cisco Systems (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), and others such as CRWV and CRCL. The combination of macroeconomic data and corporate earnings could set the tone for equity markets in the second half of August.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq set a fresh all-time intraday high today—a bullish signal—but I remain short-term cautious on the S&P 500 (SPX) until it can decisively break above last Thursday’s high. That level now serves as an important near-term resistance point. Additionally, seasonal patterns are beginning to tilt bearish, which doesn’t guarantee a market pullback but is worth respecting—particularly in light of the impressive ~28% rally stocks have delivered since the April lows. For now, my market outlook heading into next week is “Cautious.”
That said, the tone could shift quickly. Cooler-than-expected inflation data or a strong Retail Sales report confirming resilient consumer demand could provide the fuel needed for another leg higher. In short, while the technical and seasonal backdrop warrants prudence, the door remains open for upside surprises if the data breaks in the market’s favor.
Economic Calendar:
- Monday (8/11): No reports
- Tuesday (8/12): Consumer Price Index (CPI), Treasury Budget
- Wednesday (8/13): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
- Thursday (8/14): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Friday (8/15): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Empire State Manufacturing, Export Prices, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Retail Sales, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment- Preliminary
Earnings:
- Monday (8/11): Aaon Inc. (AAON), Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR), AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS), Barrick Mining Corp. (B), Celanese Corp. (CE), Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV), Oklo (OKLO), Monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)
- Tuesday (8/12): Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH), CAVA Group Inc. (CAVA), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL), CoreWeave (CRWV), H&R Block Inc. (HRB), Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE), Sea Ltd. (SE), Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI)
- Wednesday (8/13): Brinker International Inc. (EAT), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Coherent Corp. (COHR), Elbit Systems Inc. (ESLT), Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR), Performance Food Group Inc. (PFGC), Stantec Inc. (STN)
- Thursday (8/14): Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (BABA), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Deere & Co. (DE), JD.com Inc. (JD), NetEase Inc. (NTES), Nice Ltd. (NICE), SanDisk Corp. (SNDK), Tapestry Inc. (TRP)
- Friday (8/15): BitFuFu Inc. (FUFU), Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO), So-Young International Inc. (SY)
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts