On the economic front, Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, was closely watched. Core PCE showed a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.9% annual rise, underscoring sticky inflation and keeping the Fed’s 2% target out of reach. Futures weakened after the release. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose 0.5% in July—the strongest in four months—pointing to resilience, though the University of Michigan’s sentiment index slipped below expectations at 58.2. Americans continue to spend, but the sustainability of that strength amid inflationary pressures and softening sentiment remains uncertain.
The week’s most anticipated earnings event came from Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday. Shares fluctuated between $172 and $184 in the days following the report, with markets having priced in about a 6% post-earnings move—perhaps too ambitious. Nvidia reported Q2 revenue growth of 56% year-over-year to $54 billion, even without selling any H20 chips to China. While impressive, it marked a slowdown from the 69% growth reported just last May. The company authorized a massive $60 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence despite growth moderation.
Investors largely shrugged off the deceleration until Thursday, when Dell Technologies (DELL) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported results. Dell shares fell more than 10% on weaker server margins and a sharp decline in AI server orders—$5.6 billion in the fiscal second quarter, down from $12.1 billion previously. The company did, however, raise its full-year sales outlook. Marvell tumbled 17% after data center revenue rose 69% but still fell short of analysts’ estimates. EPS and revenue met expectations, but guidance offered little upside.
Outlook
Heading into the shortened holiday week of September 2–5, 2025, the stock market is expected to focus on upcoming jobs data and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. A strong August, which saw the S&P 500 briefly cross the 6,500 mark for the first time, may give way to a more subdued September, a month that has historically shown weak performance.
Economic Headlines
Court Rulings Throw Trump’s Trade War into Turmoil
Businesses have spent eight months seeking clarity from President Trump’s escalating trade war. Instead, they’re facing deeper confusion and extended uncertainty, as a federal appeals court has struck down the legal foundation behind most of Trump’s tariffs.
On Friday, the court ruled that the president’s reliance on a 1977 law to impose emergency tariffs is invalid—upholding an earlier May 28 lower court decision. The case now appears destined for the Supreme Court, with both timing and outcome unclear. In the meantime, importers remain stuck in a chaotic environment that threatens to weigh on the economy well into 2026.
Trump has repeatedly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as justification for declaring “national emergencies” tied to trade deficits. But IEEPA doesn’t mention tariffs at all—nor does it grant a president authority to impose taxes, which the Constitution reserves for Congress. The appeals court highlighted that point while also questioning whether long-standing trade deficits qualify as emergencies at all.
Emergency tariffs now account for nearly 80% of the new tariff revenue being collected, according to the Tax Foundation. Many of these levies fall in the 10%–50% range, with the most dramatic being a 30-plus percentage point hike on imports from China, America’s second-largest trading partner. If the Supreme Court ultimately rules against Trump, those tariffs—and the bilateral trade deals built around them—could unravel entirely.
Fed Faces September Meeting as US Job Growth Stays Muted
US employers showed little appetite for hiring in August, leaving the labor market in a weaker position as the Federal Reserve heads into its September policy meeting. Economists expect Friday’s jobs report to show roughly 75,000 new positions added last month, while the unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.3%—its highest level in nearly four years. If confirmed, it would mark the fourth straight month of sub-100,000 payroll gains, the softest run since the early days of the pandemic.
The Fed now faces a difficult balancing act. Some policymakers remain cautious about cutting rates too quickly, noting that slower job creation is partly offset by a declining labor-force participation rate. They also worry about loosening policy while inflation pressures have been creeping higher. Others, such as Governor Christopher Waller, argue that the cooling pace of hiring is enough reason for the central bank to move ahead with its first rate cut of the year.
Investors will closely parse remarks from regional Fed presidents Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), John Williams (New York), and Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) ahead of the jobs release. The Fed’s Beige Book, due Wednesday, will also provide an on-the-ground look at economic conditions across the country.
Beyond the headline jobs figures, labor demand continues to fade. Job openings are projected to have declined again in July to one of the lowest levels since 2021, reflecting a broader corporate push to rein in costs, including higher import duties. According to Bloomberg Economics, hiring in local government, leisure and hospitality, and construction may provide some offset, with an estimated 93,000 payrolls added.
The broader economic picture remains heavily shaped by trade policy. President Donald Trump is doubling down on tariffs in hopes of narrowing deficits, boosting domestic production, and driving long-term investment. But that approach has also pushed up import costs and could be contributing to corporate caution in hiring.
Other key data in the shortened holiday week include surveys from the Institute for Supply Management on both manufacturing and services. On Thursday, government figures are expected to show a sharp widening in the July trade deficit, reflecting a rush of imports ahead of looming tariff hikes.
Cryptocurrency News
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) made headlines this week with new guidance for crypto firms. According to Bloomberg, the agency issued an advisory detailing how foreign platforms can register as foreign boards of trade, opening the door for them to offer derivatives directly to U.S. traders.
North America remains the world’s largest crypto market, accounting for roughly $1.3 trillion in on-chain value between July 2023 and June 2024—about 22.5% of global activity, per Chainalysis. This development could create a path back into the U.S. market for giants like Binance Holdings Ltd., setting the stage for renewed competition with domestic leaders such as Coinbase Global Inc. and Kraken.
This Week’s Notable 52-week Highs: Iren Limited (IREN + $3.25 to $26.29), Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR + $0.50 to $7.52), Alphabet (GOOGL + $1.65 to $213.30), Bank of America Corp. (BAC + $0.32 to $50.81)
This Week’s Notable 52-week Lows: Bollinger Innovations Inc. (BINI – $0.06 to $0.26), Luminar Technologies Inc. (LAZR – $0.05 to $1.71), SOS Limited (SOS – $0.47 to $1.16)
What to Watch:
Economic Calendar:
- Monday (Sep. 1): Closed for Labor Day
- Tuesday (Sep. 2): ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid, New Orders, Employment
- Wednesday (Sep. 3): MBA Mortgage Applications Index, JOLTs Job Openings, Durable Goods, Factory Orders
- Thursday (Sep. 4): Continuing Claims, Initial Claims, ADP Employment Change, Challenger Job Cuts, ISM Services, Prices Paid, New Orders, Employment
- Friday (Sep. 5): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation
Earnings:
- Monday (Sep. 1): None
- Tuesday (Sep. 2): Nio Inc. (NIO), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG), ZScaler Inc. (ZS), Healthequity Inc. (HQY)
- Wednesday (Sep. 3): Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), Campbells Co. (CPB), Macy’s Inc. (M), Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Figma Inc. (FIG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO)
- Thursday (Sep. 4): Ciena Corp. (CIEN), VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Copart Inc. (CPRT), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), Samsara Inc. (IOT), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU)
- Friday (Sep. 5): ABM Industries (ABM)
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