Friday’s selling has been broader than a week ago, with seven of 11 sectors in the red. Weakness that began in technology has now extended to Energy and Financials, down 2.22% and 1.80%, respectively.
Energy shares softened after reports that Saudi Arabia is urging OPEC+ to accelerate the return of oil production to regain market share ahead of its scheduled increase at the end of next year. While Energy remains a small slice of the S&P 500, its move is worth noting.
The bigger question for markets is whether the “bad news is good news” trade is losing steam.
Scheduled releases this coming week include Small Business Optimism, the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), weekly Jobless Claims and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey. PPI (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday). These will be the marquee reports, with consensus expecting both to rise 0.3% month-over-month. Year-over-year, PPI is forecast at 3.3% and CPI at 2.9%. Hotter-than-expected readings could quickly reverse the recent pullback in yields, which in turn could test stocks near their all-time highs.
Outlook
Heading into the shortened holiday week of September 2–5, 2025, the stock market is expected to focus on upcoming jobs data and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. A strong August, which saw the S&P 500 briefly cross the 6,500 mark for the first time, may give way to a more subdued September, a month that has historically shown weak performance.
“As we head into the next week, keep in mind that we’re stuck in the month of September, a historically terrible month for the market where bad news is bad news, and good news is fleeting,” Mad Money’s Jim Cramer said. “It’s not the end of the world, people, but it is an awful stretch of the calendar.”
Economic Headlines
Trump Exempts Key Metals from Global Tariffs
President Trump on Friday exempted gold bullion, tungsten, uranium, and graphite from his global tariffs, while continuing to levy duties on silicone products. The executive order, effective Monday, formalizes prior U.S. Customs guidance and aims to clarify confusion in markets.
The move also empowers the U.S. Trade Representative and Commerce Department to implement trade agreements with countries like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, reducing the need for additional executive orders. EU Trade Chief Maros Sefcovic welcomed the step, noting it helps lower auto tariffs to 15% and secures critical exemptions.
Trump’s tariffs, part of his broader effort to address trade imbalances, have drawn criticism for potentially raising costs on products that cannot be produced domestically. The exemptions signal a more targeted approach, balancing market stability with trade policy objectives.
Postal Traffic Plummets; Gold Exempted; Japan Deal Moves Forward
Postal traffic to the U.S. has fallen by more than 80% after the Trump administration closed the de minimis tariff loophole for low-value imports, the United Nations postal agency reported Saturday. According to the AP, 88 postal operators have suspended some or all services to the U.S. for parcels valued at $800 or less, the previous threshold for avoiding customs duties.
On Friday, President Trump signed an executive order exempting gold, tungsten, and uranium from global tariffs, Bloomberg reported.
Meanwhile, Trump finalized the U.S.-Japan trade pact on Thursday, but many of his tariffs remain mired in legal challenges after courts ruled most of them illegal. To accelerate resolution, Trump has requested the Supreme Court hear the case immediately, with arguments potentially starting in early November.
Amid ongoing legal uncertainty, Trump warned Wednesday that the U.S. may need to “unwind” existing trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea if the Supreme Court does not uphold his tariffs.
OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output, but Slowly
OPEC+ plans to raise oil production starting in October, though at a slower pace than recent months as global demand cools. Sources say the increase could range from 135,000 to 350,000 barrels per day. Recent hikes have been limited by capacity constraints, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the main sources of extra supply.
Fed Rate Outlook
Friday’s jobs report boosted market expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. Futures now imply an 86% chance of a quarter-point reduction and a 14% chance of a half-point move, according to CME FedWatch. For deeper analysis, see the latest insights from our co-chief investment strategists.
Earnings Highlights
It was a relatively subdued week on the earnings calendar, with just a handful of major names making headlines. Salesforce (CRM) clawed back much of Thursday’s 8% plunge after reporting quarterly revenue and earnings ahead of Wall Street forecasts. The initial sell-off appeared tied to the company’s cautious guidance rather than the actual results.
Broadcom (AVGO) also delivered stronger-than-expected earnings, and in a headline-grabbing disclosure said it’s partnering with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI to design a new AI accelerator chip slated to begin shipping as early as 2026. Bloomberg reported that orders for the chip already exceed $10 billion, sparking a 10% surge in Broadcom shares today.
Not all the news was upbeat. Lululemon (LULU) tumbled nearly 18% after cutting its third-quarter and full-year outlook, citing weaker demand and higher tariff-related costs.
Sector Standout:
One notable bright spot came from Communication Services, which gained 4.67% for the week, powered by an 11% rally in Alphabet (GOOGL).
The stock hit a record high of $235.02 after a federal court ruled the company can retain its Chrome browser but must avoid exclusive contracts and share certain search data. Investors had feared Google might lose Chrome following a prior ruling that it held an illegal search monopoly, and the latest decision helped lift a long-standing regulatory overhang for the tech giant.
Cryptocurrency News
Legislative momentum around digital assets is picking up. Following this week’s hearing on President Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve nominee Stephen Miran, attention is turning to potential action on cryptocurrency laws. In July, the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act, which would establish a broad regulatory framework for digital assets. The Senate Banking Committee has indicated it will take up its own version of the bill later this month.
“The crypto industry is working hard to secure passage of this second bill after its success earlier this summer in helping Congress approve the first-ever law regulating stablecoins,” said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab.
What to Watch:
Economic Calendar:
- Monday (9/8): Consumer Credit
- Tuesday (9/9): NFIB Small Business Optimism
- Wednesday (9/10): MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI, Wholesale Inventories
- Thursday (9/11): Continuing Claims, Initial Claims, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI
- Friday (9/12): U of M Consumer Sentiment, Current Conditions, 1yr Inflation, 5-10 yr Inflation
Earnings:
- Monday (Sep. 8): Caseys General Stores Inc. (CASY)
- Tuesday (Sep. 9): Core & Main Inc. (CNM), Sailpoint Inc. (SAIL), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Synopsis Inc. (SNPS), Rubrik Inc (RBRK), GameStop Corp. (GME)
- Wednesday (Sep. 10): Chewy Inc. (CHWY), Manchester United PLC (MANU)
- Thursday (Sep. 11): Kroger Co. (KR), Adobe Inc. (ADBE), RH (RH)
- Friday (Sep. 12): None
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