Weekend Sum Up and the Week Ahead

Sophia Reyes · September 13, 2025 6:35 PM

Nasdaq Leads Market as Tech Stocks Drive Record Streak

Nasdaq Composite:

• Closed at 22,141.10, up 0.44% Friday and 2% for the week, marking five consecutive record closes.
• Tech stocks powered the rally, fueled by AI enthusiasm and expectations of lower interest rates.
  • Tesla (TSLA): +7.36% to $395.94, +12% for the week, boosted by hopes of cheaper financing reviving vehicle demand.
  • Micron Technology (MU): Hit a record $158.28, closed at $157.63; analysts raised price targets to $175 on strong AI-driven DRAM demand.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Consolidated near record territory at $177.82.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +2.39% after confirming shipments of Nvidia Blackwell Ultra servers.
• Tech remains central to Nasdaq’s outperformance as investors chase AI hardware and software beneficiaries.

S&P 500:

• Slight pullback to 6,584.29 (-0.05%) despite briefly hitting an intraday record at 6,594.67.
• Weekly gain of 1.6%, marking five positive weeks in the last six.
• Movers:
  • Adobe (ADBE): +~4% after raising full-year guidance; EPS $5.31 on $5.99B revenue.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): +1.77% to $509.90 on extended OpenAI partnership.
  • Apple (AAPL): +1.76% to $234.07 ahead of iPhone 16 cycle.
  • RH: -4.6% to $217.62 after missing revenue forecasts and lowering guidance due to tariffs and inflation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

• Fell 273.78 points (-0.59%) to 45,834.22, retreating below the 46,000 milestone hit Thursday.
• Still posted a 1.56% weekly gain, its first in three weeks.
• Weakness driven by Oracle (ORCL): -5.09% to $292.18 after disappointing AI growth outlook.
• Gains in MSFT, AAPL, and support from Bank of America (BAC) helped cushion losses.
• Dow remains more sensitive to cyclical consumer and industrial pressures compared with tech-heavy peers.

Outlook

September historically is a weak month for stocks, so traders should remain alert for potential pullbacks. A “sell on the news” or profit-taking event could follow next Wednesday’s Fed rate decision and dot plot release. Conversely, if the Fed delivers a widely expected rate cut and signals a dovish stance, it could drive incremental buying in rate-sensitive sectors such as the Russell 2000, housing, financials, and real estate.

Forecast: Given the bullish technicals and potential for Fed-driven support, the near-term outlook is slightly bullish.

Risks to Watch: A more hawkish Fed dot plot or internal dissent could spark profit-taking and a short-term pullback in equities, particularly in the latter half of next week.

Economic Data Highlights

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

• Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM), exceeding expectations of +0.3%—the largest single-month increase since January.
• Headline year-over-year (YoY) CPI increased 0.2% to 2.9%, in line with forecasts.
• Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, putting Core YoY at 3.1%, both matching expectations.

Producer Price Index (PPI):

• Headline PPI declined 0.1% MoM, well below the +0.3% estimate.
• Headline YoY PPI rose 2.6%, below the +3.3% expected.
• Core PPI fell 0.1% MoM, with Core YoY at 2.8%, slightly below forecasts.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Annual Revision:

• Job creation for the 12 months ending March was revised down by 911,000, exceeding previous estimates of 300K–900K fewer jobs.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:

• Rose 0.5 points to 100.8 in August, the highest reading since January.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment:

• Fell to 55.4 in September from 58.2 in August, the lowest since May.
• One-year inflation expectations remained at 4.8%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.9% from 3.5%.

Initial Jobless Claims:

• Increased 27K to 263K, above the 242K forecast.
• Continuing claims were unchanged at 1.939M.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3 GDP):

• Q3 GDP “nowcast” revised up to +3.1% from +3.0% on September 4th.

Economic News

Trump-Era EPA Moves to End Key Program Tracking Emissions from Major Polluters

The Environmental Protection Agency announced Friday that it plans to end a cornerstone federal program requiring the nation’s largest power plants, refineries, industrial facilities and other heavy emitters to monitor and report their greenhouse gas pollution.

The move would unwind the EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which since 2010 has collected emissions data from roughly 8,000 sites across the country. In 2023, companies covered by the inventory reported emitting about 2.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent — a central dataset for researchers, policymakers and the public. The change, still subject to final approval, is part of a broader effort to roll back dozens of Biden-era environmental rules.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called the reporting system “nothing more than bureaucratic red tape that does nothing to improve air quality” and said scrapping it could save businesses up to $2.4 billion in compliance costs.

Environmental advocates condemned the decision, noting the program was created through bipartisan legislation signed by President George W. Bush in 2007. “Cutting the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program blinds Americans to the facts about climate pollution,” said Joseph Goffman, a former assistant administrator for the EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation. “Without it, policymakers, businesses and communities cannot make sound decisions about how to cut emissions and protect public health.”

If finalized, the change would mark one of the most significant reversals yet of federal climate policy, removing a nationwide accounting system that underpins state, corporate and academic efforts to track and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Cryptocurrency Space

BlackRock Explores Bringing ETFs On-Chain Amid Growing Tokenization Trend

Interest in tokenization—moving traditional assets onto blockchain—continued this week as Bloomberg reported that asset manager BlackRock is considering putting its ETFs on-chain. Plans could include its Bitcoin and Ethereum iShares ETFs, which have seen cumulative inflows of $55 billion and $12.7 billion, respectively, as well as tokenized funds tied to “real-world assets.”

Earlier this year, BlackRock launched its tokenized USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), and the latest move would represent another step in advancing Web 3.0 and bridging traditional finance with blockchain technology.

What to Watch:

Economic Calendar:

• Monday (Sep. 15): Empire State Manufacturing
• Tuesday (Sep. 16): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Export Prices, Import Prices, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Retail Sales
• Wednesday (Sep. 17): Building Permits, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision, Housing Starts, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (Sep. 18): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Leading Indicators, Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Philadelphia Fed Index
• Friday (Sep. 19): no reports

Earnings:

• Monday (Sep. 15): Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc. (PLAY), Hain Celestial Group Inc. (HAIN), Immersion Corp. (IMMR), Ispire Technology Inc. (ISPR), Radiant Logistics Inc. (RLGT)
• Tuesday (Sep. 16): Barnes & Noble Education Inc. (BNED), Brand House Collective Inc. (TBHC), Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG), Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX), Spire Global Inc. (SPIR)
• Wednesday Sep. 17): Bullish Inc. (BLSH), General Mills (GIS)
• Thursday (Sep. 18): Cracker Barrel Old Country Stores Inc. (CBRL), Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS), FedEx Corp. (FDX), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Rezolute, Inc. (RZLT), Scholastic Corp. (SCHL)
• Friday (Sep. 19): MoneyHero Ltd. (MNY)