Weekend Sum Up and the Week Ahead
Dow and S&P 500 Hit Fresh Records, Score Weekly Gains After Fed Rate Cut
U.S. stocks climbed on Friday, closing out a strong week as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut since December.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 172.85 points, or 0.37%, to finish at a record 46,315.27. The S&P 500 advanced 0.49% to 6,664.36, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72% to close at 22,631.48.
The Russell 2000 small-cap index slipped 0.7% after briefly touching a record high earlier in the session.
Apple shares jumped 3.2% as the company’s latest iPhone hit global markets, while Tesla rose more than 2.2%. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Dow rose 1%, and the Nasdaq added 2.2%. The Russell 2000 also gained 2.2%, marking its seventh straight weekly advance.
Markets rallied after the Fed trimmed its benchmark overnight rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday. While widely anticipated, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the move a “risk management cut,” sparking volatility before stocks resumed their climb.
“September has historically seen pullbacks, but this market has defied the pattern — climbing 35% since March with strong technical and fundamental support,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. “With the S&P 500 at 22 times forward earnings and volatility low, some consolidation would be normal and healthy.”
Other Notable Market Moves
- Uranium ETF Surges: The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR) soared more than 5% on Friday, surpassing its 2007 high. It’s on track for its best weekly gain since 2020, up nearly 12%.
- UBS Sees More Upside: UBS expects further stock gains following the Fed’s rate cut, noting that non-recessionary easing cycles historically boost equities. “We see further upside supported by AI, earnings and consumption,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS Global Wealth Management.
- Big Movers Midday:
- Brighthouse Financial jumped 26% on reports of a potential $65–$70-per-share buyout offer led by Aquarian Holdings.
- Scholastic fell nearly 11% after posting a larger-than-expected quarterly loss.
- Newmont rose more than 4% after selling its stake in Orla Mining for $439 million, while Orla fell about 7%.
- SolarEdge Technologies added 4%, extending a 24% weekly surge amid lower borrowing costs following the Fed’s decision.
- ASML Outlook Raised: Bank of America lifted its price target on ASML to $1,082 from $833, citing stronger semiconductor demand following Nvidia and Intel’s $5 billion deal.
- UPS Downgraded: BMO cut United Parcel Service to “market perform” from “outperform,” citing weak demand, shifting trade policies, and the end of de minimis exemptions. UPS shares are down 32% year-to-date.
- Russell 2000 Record: Thursday’s close marked the index’s first record high since November 2021, ending a 967-trading-day streak without one — its second-longest on record.
Broader Economic Signals
- Gold Extends Winning Streak: Gold futures rose 0.3% Friday, putting the metal on track for a fifth straight weekly gain as the dollar weakens on expectations of more Fed cuts.
- Ray Dalio’s Warning: The Bridgewater founder told the FutureChina Global Forum that gold and non-fiat currencies will become increasingly important stores of value amid mounting global debt pressures.
- Trump’s Manufacturing Push: The Wall Street Journal reported the administration is exploring a $550 billion investment fund to accelerate U.S. factory and infrastructure construction, with a focus on semiconductors and critical minerals.
Economic Data
- FOMC Rate Decision: As expected, the FOMC lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0-4.25%. There was one dissent from recently appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran. The Fed’s “dot plot” suggests two more cuts by the end of this year. The summary of economic projections (SEP), real GDP was revised up in both 2025 and 2026, the unemployment rate was revised down slightly and core PCE for 2026 was revised up to 2.6% from 2.4%.
- Retail Sales: Headline retail sales increased 0.6% in August from the prior month (above the +0.2% expected), and July retail sales were revised up to +0.6% from a prior reading of +0.5%.
- Retail Sales ex-autos: Increased 0.7% which was above the +0.4% economists had expected. On an annual basis, retail sales were up 5.00%.
- Empire State Manufacturing: -8.7 vs. 6.3 expected
- Building Permits: 1312K vs. 1340K expected
- Housing Starts: 1307K vs. 1350K expected
- Leading Indicators: -0.5% vs. the -0.1% expected
- Philadelphia Fed Index: Jumped to 23.2 in September from -0.3 in August. This represented the highest reading since January, as positive new orders and shipments point to continued growth over the next six months.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Decreased 33K to 231K versus last week’s 264K, and well below the 255K expected. Continuing Claims declined 7K from last week to 1.920M.
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow “nowcast” for Q3 GDP was first revised up to +3.4% from +3.1% following the strong retail sales report, but then slightly revised down to 3.3% on Wednesday.
Economic Headlines
TikTok Spin-Off Gives Americans Majority Control, Leavitt Says
TikTok’s U.S. operations will soon be majority-owned and directed by Americans under a new agreement to separate the app from its Chinese parent, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Saturday.
Appearing on Fox News, Leavitt said Americans would occupy six of the seven seats on TikTok’s board and that the platform’s core algorithm would also be under U.S. control. She said the final agreement is expected to be signed within days.
According to a senior White House official, the American board members will have national security and cybersecurity expertise. The one remaining seat, to be filled by current owner ByteDance Ltd., will not sit on the security committee.
The deal emerged from talks in Madrid earlier this week between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, which produced a framework for spinning off ByteDance’s U.S. TikTok business. President Donald Trump has extended the deadline for the divestiture to December 16 under a bipartisan law requiring ByteDance to shed control by January 2025.
“All of those details have been agreed upon, and now it’s just about signing the paperwork, which I expect in the coming days,” Leavitt said, adding that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping finalized the arrangement in a Friday phone call.
Under the plan, ByteDance will retain less than 20% of the new entity. The rest will be taken up by U.S. investors including Oracle Corp., Andreessen Horowitz, and private equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC, the official said.
Oracle will serve as TikTok’s security partner, monitoring the app for compliance and handling U.S. user data domestically, with no access by China, the White House said.
“The data and privacy will be managed by one of America’s leading tech companies, Oracle, and the algorithm will also be under American control,” Leavitt said.
Trump, once an outspoken critic of TikTok, has softened his stance, crediting the platform with helping him gain traction among young voters during last year’s election.
Cryptocurrency Space
An exchange-traded fund tied to Dogecoin — the largest memecoin by market value — launched trading yesterday. The DOGE ETF (ticker: DOJE) was developed through a partnership between REX Sharea and Osprey Funds, which sought to ensure compliance by registering the product under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the federal law governing investment vehicles that pool capital from multiple investors for a shared strategy.
By contrast, fund managers Grayscale and Bitwise have filed their own proposals for Dogecoin ETFs but are aiming to register under the Securities Act of 1933 instead.
Outlook
With the Fed meeting behind and seasonal trends turning weaker, the forecast for next week looks “slightly bearish,” with a possible early-week melt-up followed by exhaustion — unless long-term yields fall, which could boost small caps and rate-sensitive stocks.
What to Watch:
Economic Calendar:
- Monday (Sep. 22): -no reports-
- Tuesday (Sep. 23): Current Account Balance, Existing Home Sales
- Wednesday (Sep. 24): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales
- Thursday (Sep. 25): Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Q2 GDP – Third Estimate, Initial Claims
- Friday (Sep. 26): PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final
Earnings:
- Monday (Sep. 22): Ennis Inc. (EBF), Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
- Tuesday (Sep. 23): AutoZone Inc. (AZO), Micron Technology Inc. (MU), Worthington Enterprises Inc. (WOR)
- Wednesday (Sep. 24): Cintas Corp. (CTAS), H.B. Fuller Company (FUL), KB Home (KBH), Thor Industries Inc. (THO), Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC)
- Thursday (Sep. 25): Accenture PLC (ACN), BlackBerry Ltd. (BB), CarMax Inc. (KMX), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Concentrix Corp. (CNXC), Jabil Inc. (JBL), TD Synnex Corp. (SNX)
- Friday (Sep. 26): -no reports-
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts