Weekend Sum Up and the Week Ahead

Sophia Reyes · September 27, 2025 9:37 PM

The Week That Was

U.S. stocks managed a modest rebound on Friday, offering investors a temporary sigh of relief following three consecutive days of losses, even as the week ultimately closed with all major indexes slightly lower. The session was shaped by a mix of economic data, lingering concerns about consumer sentiment, and the latest trade measures from the Trump administration, providing Wall Street with a complex set of factors to digest.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) each gained roughly 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.4%. Friday’s uptick followed a sharp midweek retreat, yet despite the rally, the week ended with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting minor losses of less than 1%.

The S&P 500 set a fresh all-time high on Monday, but then quickly pulled back and is on track to finish the week lower. The softness has been concentrated in the high-beta corners of the market — notably tech, AI, and other momentum names. On Monday, AI heavyweight Nvidia grabbed headlines with a $100 billion plan to invest in OpenAI’s data-center buildout. Initially the market cheered, but commentary about “vendor” or “circular” financing began surfacing in the press, raising comparisons to the excesses of the late-1990s internet buildout and subsequent dot-com bust. That triggered profit-taking across the AI complex. Meanwhile, on Wednesday Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage on Oracle with a Sell rating and a $175 price target, adding further drag to sentiment in large-cap tech.

The macro picture told a different story. Data out this week reaffirmed the strength of the U.S. economy. Second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.8%, personal income and spending beat expectations, and the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast for third-quarter growth jumped to 3.9% as of Friday. This firming backdrop nudged Treasury yields modestly higher, which may have compounded some of the equity weakness.

Trade policy also came back into focus. President Donald Trump unveiled a new round of tariffs: 100% on branded drugs, 25% on heavy-duty trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and related products, and 30% on upholstered furniture. Most of these levies were issued today. Yet, so far, markets appear largely unfazed by the new measures.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

While an extended government shutdown would be disruptive, markets have endured enough similar episodes to discount the risk unless and until it materializes. Next week’s marquee release will be the monthly jobs report (assuming no shutdown delays). Although that report can always move markets, initial claims have been trending down since peaking at 263K on September 11th, hinting at stability in the labor market.

Other Notable Market Moves

• Silver continued its sharp rally, climbing nearly 4% to $46.88 per troy ounce, approaching its 2011 peak. The precious metal has surged over 60% year-to-date, outpacing gold’s 46% gain, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid Fed easing and a softer dollar.
• Bond yields moved higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.17%, up from its early-September low of 4.0%.
• The U.S. dollar is weakening against major currencies.
• The gold market is managing to hold on to gains above $3,750 an ounce, but it continues to face a wall of resistance.
• Oil prices rose on Friday as Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure cut the country’s fuel exports. Brent futures settled at $70.13 a barrel, up 71 cents, or 1.02%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $65.72 a barrel, gaining 74 cents, or 1.14%.
• Bitcoin (/BTC) dropped to a three-week low below $109,000 Thursday and extended losses Friday. The slump weighed on crypto-linked names: MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell nearly 7% and Coinbase (COIN) lost 4.7% Thursday, with both trading lower again early Friday. Analysts linked the weakness to a stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP print that pushed Treasury yields higher.
• Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged after reports revealed that the video game company may go private in a record-setting $50 billion leveraged buyout. The stock jumped nearly 15% in afternoon trading, reflecting investor optimism over the deal, which involves private equity firm Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
• Boeing (BA) shares advanced, rising after the Federal Aviation Administration cleared the company to resume final safety inspections on 737 Max jets and following new orders from Turkish Airlines and Norwegian Air Shuttle. Year-to-date, Boeing’s stock is up 25%, buoyed by both regulatory confidence and expanding commercial deals.
• Oracle extends slide as AI concerns weigh. Analysts cite profit-taking and skepticism over the company’s AI investments and a possible TikTok stake as key reasons for the pullback.
• Intel (INTC) gained more on Friday, building on Thursday’s 8.9% jump after Bloomberg reported Apple (AAPL) had approached the chipmaker about taking an equity stake.
• CarMax (KMX) tumbled after a sharp top- and bottom-line miss.
• Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE) rose after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.
• Paccar (PCAR) jumped after the Trump administration unveiled 25% tariffs on heavy trucks made outside the U.S. The company, which owns Peterbilt and Kenworth, manufactures about 90% of its U.S. trucks domestically, CNBC reported.
• Costco (COST) fell even after topping profit estimates. Same-store sales grew 6%, slightly below forecasts, and the retailer noted consumers remain “very choiceful” on discretionary spending, according to Yahoo Finance.

Economic Data

• PCE Prices: Headline PCE rose 0.3% in August, which puts the year-over-year (YoY) at +2.7%. The YoY figure is a slight increase from +2.6% in the prior month and the highest reading since April 2024.
• PCE Prices – Core: Core PCE rose 0.2% in August, which puts the YoY at +2.9% (both in line with estimates).
• Personal Income: +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected
• Personal Spending: +0.6% vs. +0.5% expected
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI – Preliminary: Dropped to 52.0 from 53.0 in the prior month but remains in expansionary territory (any reading above 50.0 represents expansion).
• S&P Global U.S. Services PMI – Preliminary: Dropped to 53.9 from 54.5 in the prior month.
• New Home Sales: 800K vs. 660K expected
• Durable Goods Orders: Surged 2.9% in August following a (downwardly revised 2.7% in July, which was well above the 0.5% expected. Excluding transportation, orders increased 0.4% versus the 0.0% economists had expected.
• Existing Home Sales: 4.0M vs. 4.0M
• Q2 GDP – Third Estimate: The economy grew 3.8% in Q2, which was above the +3.3% expected.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final: Fell to 55.1 in September from 58.2 in August, but slightly above the 55.0 expected.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Decreased 14K from last week to 218K, which was well below the 240K expected. Continuing Claims declined 7K from last week to 1.920M.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow “nowcast” for Q3 GDP was revised up to +3.9% today from +3.3% on September 17th.

Economic Headlines

A Surging Stock Market Is Propping Up the Economy — and Potentially Setting It Up for a Fall

For now, Wall Street’s record-breaking rally is doing what government stimulus and rock-bottom interest rates once did: powering consumer spending and keeping the U.S. economy out of a widely predicted recession. Stocks have shrugged off tariffs, political gridlock, weak hiring and still-sticky inflation, creating a “wealth effect” that’s buoying high-income households and masking underlying fragility. August data showed stronger-than-expected gains in consumer spending, income and even housing sales, while inflation pressures cooled enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for an October rate cut. GDP growth was revised up to a robust 3.8% for the second quarter, and the Atlanta Fed now pegs third-quarter growth at 3.9%. Durable goods orders and new home sales are surging. From the outside, the economy looks remarkably stable.

Beneath the surface, though, the gains are highly uneven and heavily dependent on continued stock-market strength. University of Michigan surveys show confidence holding steady among households with large equity portfolios but eroding for everyone else; overall sentiment has fallen 23% since January. The top 10% of earners own 87% of the market, meaning most Americans aren’t sharing in the rally. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warns that “the economy’s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south” — a reversal that could swiftly drain confidence and push savings rates higher just as job growth remains flat. With the S&P 500 trading well above historical valuation averages and unemployment stable but payroll gains muted, economists say today’s good news carries tomorrow’s risks. In other words, the stock market may be keeping the economy afloat — but it may also be the very reason it sinks if sentiment turns.

Trump’s Latest Post Targets Fed Chair Powell with ‘YOU’RE FIRED!’ Cartoon, Stirring Debate Over Central Bank Autonomy

President Donald Trump ignited a new round of controversy Saturday by sharing on Truth Social an AI-style cartoon of himself confronting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with the words “YOU’RE FIRED!” as Powell clutches a box of personal items against a backdrop of the Fed’s seal. The image revives Trump’s long-running feud with Powell over interest-rate policy, which the president has derided as “too late” and too cautious despite this month’s rate cut — the first of 2025. Powell’s term is not due to expire until May 2026.

The post also comes as Trump awaits a Supreme Court ruling on his attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud, a case that could determine whether a president has the legal power to remove central bank officials at will. The high court’s recent decisions and Powell’s own statements suggest he cannot be ousted mid-term, yet Trump’s rhetoric keeps the issue alive. Financial markets so far have shown little reaction, but many economists warn that actually firing Powell could damage the Fed’s independence, spook investors and push borrowing costs higher on fears of political interference in monetary policy.

Cryptocurrency Space

Crypto markets saw a broad pullback this week, with the most pronounced weakness concentrated in altcoins. Solana (SOL), for instance, has retreated about 20% from last Friday after an initial attempt to break out to fresh highs above $250. Ethereum (ETH) also declined, shedding more than 10% over the same period. However, buyers are beginning to step back in today, hinting at early signs of stabilization.

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum’s price action is especially noteworthy. ETH has climbed back above the pivotal $4,000 level — an area that acted as stiff resistance last December (as highlighted by the two green arrows on the chart below) and then turned into a breakout zone in August that fueled a run toward its record highs near $4,900. Regaining and holding this threshold would represent a constructive, incremental bullish signal on the charts and could lay the groundwork for another attempt at new highs if momentum continues.

What to Watch:

Economic Calendar:

• Monday (Sep. 29): Pending Home Sales
• Tuesday (Sep. 30): Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Wednesday (Oct. 01): ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Index, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (Oct. 02): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Factory Orders, Initial Claims
• Friday (Oct. 03): Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, Average Hourly Earnings, Ism Services, Unemployment Rate

Earnings:

• Monday (Sep. 29): Carnival Corp. (CCL), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), IDT Corp. (IDT), Progress Software Corp. (PRGS), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
• Tuesday (Sep. 30): Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW), Nike Inc. (NKE), Paychex Inc. (PAYX), United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI)
• Wednesday (Oct. 01): Acuity Inc. (AYI), Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), RPM International Inc. (RPM)
• Thursday (Oct. 02): AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO), Trilogy Metals (TMQ)
• Friday (Oct. 03): no reports