The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended at new record highs, lifted by strong market momentum, an upbeat monthly jobs report, and a trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched all-time highs. What will the rest of 2025 bring?
In a June interview on CNBC, Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, said that markets are already beginning to look beyond current conditions and toward the economic landscape of 2026. By then, he suggested, trade tensions could ease, leading to improved relations between the U.S. and its key partners.
“I think the market is going to look past it,” Yardeni said, referring to tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy. One reason for optimism is the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s latest GDP projection, which forecasts nearly 4% growth in the second quarter—a signal that stronger earnings and a more upbeat stock market outlook may be ahead for the second half of the year.
Still, Yardeni acknowledged that even the strongest bull markets come with challenges.
In his view, one key concern is the potential loss of U.S. access to rare earth minerals—essential components for electric vehicles, computers, and other critical technologies. Yardeni also questioned whether Big Tech companies might be over-investing in data centers powered by artificial intelligence, pointing to the heavy use of advanced chips, concrete, and steel in their construction.
Trade Update
Time has run out for several U.S. trade partners hoping to finalize agreements before President Trump’s July 9 deadline, after which higher tariffs are set to take effect.
Beginning Friday, the administration began sending letters to notify countries of the new tariff rates on their exports to the U.S., Trump told reporters. The new rates will take effect on August 1. The first wave will include 10 to 12 countries, with additional rounds of notifications to follow.
“By the ninth they’ll be fully covered,” Trump said, according to Bloomberg. “They’ll range in value from maybe 60% or 70% tariffs to 10% and 20% tariffs.”
While the Trump administration has been focused on securing new trade agreements, only three deals have been finalized so far.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that about 100 countries are likely to face a minimum “reciprocal” tariff rate of 10% starting next week. He also predicted a “flurry” of last-minute deals in the final days before the deadline.
Economic Data Summary
This past week brought a hefty batch of economic data, capped by Friday’s key monthly jobs report. Both the Nonfarm Payrolls and May JOLTS data signaled continued strength in the labor market—an encouraging sign for equity bulls. However, growth expectations took a hit as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast was revised down to 2.5% from 2.9%, largely due to persistent weakness in construction spending. Here’s a summary of the major data points:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: Increased by 147,000, well above the 106,000 forecast. There was also a two-month net upward revision of +16,000.
- Unemployment Rate: Fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, beating the 4.3% estimate.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Rose 0.2% in June, matching expectations and bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.7%.
- Average Workweek: Slipped to 34.2 hours, just under the expected 34.3.
- ADP Employment Change: Came in at -33,000, far below the expected +105,000, marking the lowest level since March 2023.
- Chicago PMI: Dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5, missing the 43.0 forecast and signaling continued contraction (readings below 50 indicate contraction).
- Construction Spending: Declined 0.3%, versus expectations for flat growth, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop.
- JOLTS – Job Openings: Rose to 7.77 million in May, above the 7.3 million expected.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Fell by 3,000 to 233,000, below the 249,000 estimate. Continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million.
- In the bond market, Treasury yields rose across the curve, especially on the short end, as traders adjusted to fading expectations for near-term rate cuts. The two-year yield climbed 13 basis points to 3.87%, the 10-year rose 6 basis points to 4.34%, and the 30-year edged up 2 basis points to 4.85%.
- Market expectations for a July Fed rate cut dropped sharply following the strong jobs report. According to Bloomberg, the odds of a 25-basis-point cut at this month’s FOMC meeting fell to just 5%, down from 25% a day earlier. Forecasts for total 2025 rate cuts also declined, with expectations now at 2.07 cuts, down from 2.56 a week ago.
Cryptocurrency Update
Texas Made Big Waves
On June 20, Texas officially signed into law the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, becoming the third U.S. state to establish a crypto reserve. What sets Texas apart, however, is its commitment to using taxpayer funds to purchase Bitcoin for the reserve—making it the first state to do so.
The initial investment of $10 million is relatively modest, but symbolically significant. The state has pledged to review the Bitcoin holdings every two years and has committed not to sell any of the assets to cover short-term budget needs.
Critics pointed out that Texas opted not to accept Bitcoin for certain government payments, such as licenses or registrations. Still, the move represents a notable step toward broader governmental recognition and integration of cryptocurrency.
U.S. House Declares July 14 “Crypto Week” as Landmark Bills Head to Floor
The U.S. House of Representatives has officially designated the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week,” marking a major legislative push to clarify digital asset regulation, legitimize stablecoins, and safeguard financial privacy. Lawmakers will take up three key bills: the bipartisan CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate-passed GENIUS Act, signaling a coordinated effort to establish the U.S. as a global leader in crypto innovation.
Prominent crypto trader and influencer Cas Abbe weighed in on the development, saying:
“The next few weeks are going to be really bullish for the crypto market.”
What’s on the Agenda for Crypto Week?
- Regulatory Clarity for Digital Assets
At the center of Crypto Week is the CLARITY Act, a bipartisan bill designed to resolve years of regulatory uncertainty in the digital asset space. The legislation delineates clear jurisdiction between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), assigning oversight of digital commodities like Bitcoin to the CFTC, while securities remain under SEC authority.
The bill introduces a dual-track registration process, allowing platforms to register with the most relevant agency, and enforces strong anti-fraud and consumer protection standards. By clearly defining asset classes and regulatory roles, the CLARITY Act aims to reduce legal ambiguity and encourage innovation while protecting investors.
- Legitimizing Stablecoins
The GENIUS Act, recently passed by the Senate with bipartisan backing, will also be considered. It offers the first federal framework for payment stablecoins, outlining who can issue them, mandating capital and reserve standards, and permitting both state and federal oversight.
The legislation lends credibility to U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins and paves the way for their integration into traditional financial systems. Clear regulatory guidelines could help attract institutional and retail adoption, while reinforcing the dollar’s dominance in global digital finance.
- Protecting Financial Privacy
Also on the docket is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which would bar the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) directly or indirectly to individuals. The bill responds to growing concerns about financial surveillance and aims to preserve Americans’ privacy and autonomy in the financial system.
The proposal reflects crypto advocates’ fears about government overreach through state-backed digital currencies and reinforces a commitment to individual rights and free-market principles.
What to Watch:
Economic:
- Monday (7/7): no reports
- Tuesday (7/8): Consumer Credit
- Wednesday (7/9): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Wholesale Inventories
- Thursday (7/10): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims
- Friday (7/11): Treasury Budget
Earnings:
- Monday (7/7): no reports
- Tuesday (7/8): Immersion Corp. (IMMR), Kura Sushi USA Inc. (KRUS), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), Quantum Corp. (QMCO)
- Wednesday (7/9): AZZ Inc. (AZZ), Bassett Furniture Industries Inc. (BSET)
- Thursday (7/10): Delta Airlines Inc. (DAL), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Simply Good Foods Co. (SMPL), Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST), PriceSmart Inc. (PSMT), WD-40 Co. (WDFC)
- Friday (7/11): no reports
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