There wasn’t much in the way of major economic data to move markets, but trade and tariff news dominated the headlines. The White House extended the 90-day reciprocal tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1. When asked about the new date, President Trump described it as “firm, but not 100% firm,” depending on how negotiations unfold.
U.S. equities declined today following a new wave of tariff announcements from the Trump administration. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% from its record high set yesterday, while the Dow Jones fell 0.6% and the Russell 2000 dropped a sharper 1.3%. Canadian stocks also closed lower, down 0.3% by day’s end.
The market pullback extended to government bonds, where yields rose amid concerns that escalating tariffs could fuel inflation. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield climbed 2 basis points, while the 10-year yield jumped 7 basis points, steepening the yield curve. This move also supported a modest uptick in the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline in the previous session.
Trade Update
Trump Escalates Tariff Push with New Letters, Warnings to BRICS Nations
President Trump is forging ahead with his aggressive trade policy, releasing a new round of letters to global leaders detailing upcoming tariffs set to begin in August—along with a pointed warning to BRICS nations.
On Thursday evening, Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods via Truth Social, accusing Canada of having “financially retaliated” against prior U.S. duties. However, a White House official clarified that many exemptions would stay in place, including for oil and select sector-specific products.
In a separate interview with NBC News, Trump floated the idea of imposing blanket tariffs of “15% to 20%” on most U.S. trading partners—well above the current 10% rate.
These moves capped a week in which Trump sent tariff letters to more than 20 countries, proposing duties ranging from 20% to 40%. Notably, Brazil was hit with a 50% tariff, a decision that has stirred political tensions within the country.
Trump also confirmed a 50% tariff on copper imports beginning August 1, aligning with similar levies on steel and aluminum. According to a Bloomberg report, the copper tariffs will affect materials used in power grids, the military, and data centers, injecting fresh volatility into the metals market.
Here’s where key trading partners stand:
Vietnam: Trump said Vietnam has agreed to a 20% tariff—down from the 46% he previously threatened. However, he warned of a 40% tariff on “any transshipping,” where goods from countries like China are routed through Vietnam. Reports suggest Vietnam’s leadership was blindsided by Trump’s announcement and is now pushing to reduce the rate.
European Union: The EU has signaled willingness to accept a 10% flat tariff on many exports but is negotiating for sector-specific exemptions. The bloc is racing to finalize a deal.
India: With Brazil facing steep penalties, India—another BRICS member—has increased urgency to reach a deal. Bloomberg reports both countries are working on a framework that could see U.S. tariffs on Indian goods fall below 20%.
Trump Imposes 30% Tariffs on Mexico and EU Starting August 1
Former President Donald Trump announced Saturday that the U.S. will impose 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, effective August 1. The move, revealed in letters posted to his Truth Social account, targets two of America’s largest trade partners.
In a letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump acknowledged efforts to curb migration and fentanyl, but said Mexico hasn’t done enough to prevent North America from becoming a “Narco-Trafficking Playground.” He added, “Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough.”
Mexico’s economy and foreign ministries responded, saying they were informed of the tariffs during a recent meeting in Washington, calling the action “an unfair deal.” Sheinbaum asserted that Mexico’s sovereignty is “non-negotiable” and confirmed both sides are working to avoid the tariffs.
In a separate letter to the EU, Trump claimed the trade relationship is “far from Reciprocal” and called persistent trade deficits a national security risk. “We must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent Trade Deficits,” he wrote.
The tariffs are part of Trump’s broader campaign push to overhaul global trade norms and revive what he calls a “ripped-off” U.S. economy.
Tariffs Weigh on German Luxury Auto Sales as Mercedes Slumps and Porsche Treads Water
German luxury automakers Mercedes-Benz (MBGAF) and Porsche (P911.DE), which typically rely on the U.S. for about 25% of their sales, are feeling the pressure as shifting trade policies disrupt their momentum in the American market.
Mercedes reported a 9% drop in global car sales in Q2, totaling 453,700 units, with U.S. sales down 12% year-over-year. The company cited trade tensions for the decline, stating: “Deliveries to dealerships were carefully calibrated to navigate new global tariff policies, impacting sales of Mercedes-Benz Cars in the U.S. and China in particular.” This comes after the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on all auto imports beginning in early April.
While Mercedes struggled in the U.S. and China, sales rose elsewhere—up 7% in Germany, 1% across Europe, and a notable 24% in regions like the Middle East, Africa, and South America.
Porsche, meanwhile, reported a 6% drop in global deliveries to 146,391 vehicles. However, U.S. sales bucked the trend, rising 10%. The company clarified that the gain was temporary, driven by “higher product availability in the market and the price protection offered in the first half of the year due to increased import tariffs.”
Economic Data Summary
FOMC Minutes (June 17–18): Most Federal Reserve officials signaled support for lowering the federal funds rate, but there was division over the timing and number of cuts. Concerns over the inflationary impact of tariffs were a key factor behind the cautious tone.
Consumer Credit: Increased by $5.1 billion in the latest reading—well below the $8.6 billion economists had expected.
NFIB Small Business Optimism: The index edged down slightly by 0.2 points to 98.6, reflecting a modest dip in confidence among small business owners.
Initial Jobless Claims: Fell by 5,000 to 227,000, beating expectations of 242,000. However, Continuing Claims rose by 10,000 to 1.965 million.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The model’s Q2 GDP growth estimate remains steady at +2.6%, unchanged from last week.
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Hits Fresh Record High
The leading cryptocurrency soared to a new all-time high near $118,900 this week, potentially fueled by growing investor optimism ahead of a pivotal week for crypto legislation in Congress. Dubbed “crypto week” by some Republicans, lawmakers are set to consider three major bills: the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins; the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act; and the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
The GENIUS Act, which passed the Senate in June, now awaits a full vote in the House of Representatives. While amendments are possible, President Trump has urged House lawmakers to approve a “clean” version of the bill with “no add-ons” before it moves to his desk for final approval.
U.S. House Declares July 14 “Crypto Week” as Landmark Bills Head to Floor
The U.S. House of Representatives has officially designated the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week,” marking a major legislative push to clarify digital asset regulation, legitimize stablecoins, and safeguard financial privacy. Lawmakers will take up three key bills: the bipartisan CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate-passed GENIUS Act, signaling a coordinated effort to establish the U.S. as a global leader in crypto innovation.
Prominent crypto trader and influencer Cas Abbe weighed in on the development, saying:
“The next few weeks are going to be really bullish for the crypto market.”
What’s on the Agenda for Crypto Week?
- Regulatory Clarity for Digital Assets
At the center of Crypto Week is the CLARITY Act, a bipartisan bill designed to resolve years of regulatory uncertainty in the digital asset space. The legislation delineates clear jurisdiction between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), assigning oversight of digital commodities like Bitcoin to the CFTC, while securities remain under SEC authority.
The bill introduces a dual-track registration process, allowing platforms to register with the most relevant agency, and enforces strong anti-fraud and consumer protection standards. By clearly defining asset classes and regulatory roles, the CLARITY Act aims to reduce legal ambiguity and encourage innovation while protecting investors.
- Legitimizing Stablecoins
The GENIUS Act, recently passed by the Senate with bipartisan backing, will also be considered. It offers the first federal framework for payment stablecoins, outlining who can issue them, mandating capital and reserve standards, and permitting both state and federal oversight.
The legislation lends credibility to U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins and paves the way for their integration into traditional financial systems. Clear regulatory guidelines could help attract institutional and retail adoption, while reinforcing the dollar’s dominance in global digital finance.
- Protecting Financial Privacy
Also on the docket is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which would bar the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) directly or indirectly to individuals. The bill responds to growing concerns about financial surveillance and aims to preserve Americans’ privacy and autonomy in the financial system.
The proposal reflects crypto advocates’ fears about government overreach through state-backed digital currencies and reinforces a commitment to individual rights and free-market principles.
What to Watch:
Economic:
- Monday (7/14): no reports
- Tuesday (7/15): Consumer Price Index (CPI), Empire State Manufacturing
- Wednesday (7/16): Producer Price Index (PPI), Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
- Thursday (7/17): Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Import Prices, Export Prices, NAHB Housing Market Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Philadelphia Fed Index
- Friday (7/18): Building Permits, Housing Starts, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Earnings:
- Monday (7/14): Fastenal Co. (FAST), FB Financial Corp. (FBK), Equity Bancshares Inc. (EQBK), Barnes & Noble Education Inc. (BNED), Simulations Plus Inc. (SLP)
- Tuesday (7/15): JPMorgan Chas & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), BlackRock Inc. (BLK), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), State Street Corp. (STT), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)
- Wednesday (7/16): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), ASML Holdings NV (ASML), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Progressive Corp. (PGR), Prologis Inc. (PLD), Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL), Alcoa Corp. (AA)
- Thursday (7/17): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), GE Aerospace (GE), Novartis AG (NVS), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), PepsiCo Inc. (PSP), Cintas Corp. (CTAS), Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), US Bancorp (USB), Travelers Companies (TRV), Netflix (NFLX), Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), Bank OZK (OZK)
- Friday (7/18): American Express Co. (AXP), Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW), 3M Co. (MMM), Truist Financial Corp. (TFC), Schlumberger NV (SLB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), Ally Financial Corp. (ALLY), Comerica Inc. (CMA)
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts