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By Stephen Nellis and Aditya Soni

SAN FRANCISCO/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Nvidia’s revenue forecast on Wednesday disappointed Wall Street, raising questions over whether the artificial intelligence boom is waning. But the answer, according to Nvidia executives, analysts and investors, is a resounding no.

There is no shortage of companies eager to create new AI systems using Nvidia’s superior chips, and the world’s largest publicly listed company is selling them as fast as its chipmaking contractor Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co can make them.

Nvidia forecast its slowest revenue growth in seven quarters on Wednesday, pushing its stock down 2.5% after hours, and said supply chain constraints would lead to demand for its chips exceeding supply for several quarters in fiscal 2026.

Making these chips is hard, and a flaw that was found in one of its chips over the summer is not helping.

Nvidia’s new flagship chip, named Blackwell, is actually made up of multiple chips that have to be glued together in a complex process the chip industry calls advanced packaging. While TSMC is racing to expand capacity, packaging remains a bottleneck for Nvidia and other chip companies.

“Blackwell adds more advanced packaging from TSMC than prior chips, which adds a wrinkle,” said Ben Bajarin, CEO and principal analyst at research firm Creative Strategies. He expects Nvidia will have more demand than it can supply for all of 2025.

Missteps by Nvidia have exacerbated the issues.

The design flaw in Blackwell forced Nvidia to undertake what it calls a “mask change.” CEO Jensen Huang said the flaw, which has since been fixed, lowered Blackwell chip yields, which are the proportion of chips that come off the manufacturing line fully functional.

While Nvidia never elaborated on the flaw, complex chips like Blackwell can take months to produce because they require hundreds of manufacturing steps. Many of these steps involve shining ultraviolet light through a series of complex masks to project the image of a chip’s circuits on a disc of silicon – a process akin to printing the chip.

The mask change appears to have set back Nvidia’s production timelines and cost it money, analysts said.

“There’s the risk that the bottlenecks worsen rather than improve, and that could damage revenue projections,” said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital.

During a conference call with investors, Nvidia executives said the company has shipped about 13,000 samples of its new chip and expects to beat its initial estimates that it would sell several billion dollars’ worth this quarter.

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With the European Union cornered, Military Metals Corp. moved to grab antimony resource shares in North America, too–in Canada’s Nova Scotia, where it acquired the West Gore Antimony Project–one of Canada’s largest antimony mines and a hero of WWI supplies.

With historical drilling results indicating over 7 meters of 10.6 gpt gold and 3.4% antimony, Military Metals is planning to score a huge antimony victory for the home front. Just a month after securing West Gore, it moved to further consolidate the territory around it in an October 24^th, 2024 LOI to acquire more claims in a strategic flanking move.

Eldridge is expecting the supply crunch to snowball, with antimony prices already doubling this year, and poised to keep going into next year. Military Metals is now strategically positioned as a leading developer of the metal that will make or break the Western world in global warfare.

#2 Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ:PPTA)

Perpetua Resources’ (NASDAQ: PPTA) flagship Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho is not only one of the largest open-pit gold mines in the United States–it is also set to be the country’s only domestic source of antimony.

According to the company, the mine–a key player for Allied Forces in WWII–could end up supplying some 35% of U.S. antimony demand in the first six years of production.

Federal support for Stibnite has been significant, with the Department of Defense awarding Perpetua Resources up to $34.6 million in additional funding in February of this year under the existing Technology Investment Agreement (TIA) through Title III of the Defence Production Act (DPA), then receiving a letter of interest for a $1.8 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) earlier this year to help develop the mine.

This potential financing, which offers a 15-year term at competitive rates, is a rare backing that underscores the project’s importance to national security, particularly as the U.S aims to reduce its reliance on Chinese mineral imports. In fact, the loan would be one of the largest investments ever in a mine by the U.S. government.

In a further show of government support, the Pentagon has already committed nearly $60 million under the Defense Production Act to advance Stibnite’s permitting process, emphasizing the mine’s role in securing a domestic antimony supply chain. Perpetua Resources said in September this year that it expected to be issued the final permit for the mine this December.

Source: Perpetua Resources Investor Presentation, October 2024

With bipartisan support and no expected regulatory hurdles due to federal interest, Perpetua Resources presents a unique opportunity and analysts are taking note.

Just a month ago, Roth MKM increased the stock’s target price to $15, signaling a projected 45% return as Perpetua Resources advances toward production.

High institutional interest and the project’s potential for environmental remediation and restoration of fish spawning areas reinforce Perpetua Resource’s long-term value and align the company with broader U.S. strategic and environmental objectives.

Bonus stocks to keep an eye on:

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF)

Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America and a major supplier of iron ore pellets. The company is integral to the US defense industry, providing essential materials for a wide range of applications. Their steel is used in the construction of military vehicles, ships, aircraft, and infrastructure, as well as in the manufacturing of critical components for weapons systems.

Cleveland-Cliffs’ position as a leading domestic steel producer is vital for ensuring the stability and self-reliance of the US defense industrial base. By sourcing steel domestically from companies like Cleveland-Cliffs, the US can reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers and mitigate potential supply chain disruptions during times of conflict or geopolitical instability. This reliable access to high-quality steel is essential for maintaining the production of critical defense equipment and ensuring the readiness of the US military.

Moreover, Cleveland-Cliffs’ commitment to sustainable practices, such as responsible mining and the use of renewable energy sources, aligns with the growing emphasis on environmental stewardship within the defense sector. By minimizing its environmental impact and promoting responsible resource management, Cleveland-Cliffs contributes to a more sustainable and resilient defense industrial base.

Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO)

Southern Copper Corporation is one of the largest integrated copper producers in the world, with significant mining and refining operations in Mexico and Peru. Copper is a critical material for the defense industry, used extensively in the production of ammunition, electrical wiring, and electronic components for various military applications.

Southern Copper’s large-scale production capacity and its commitment to operational efficiency make it a reliable supplier of copper to the US defense industry. A stable supply of copper is crucial for maintaining the production of essential defense equipment and ensuring the operational readiness of the US military.

Furthermore, Southern Copper’s focus on sustainable mining practices and community development contributes to responsible sourcing of this critical material. By minimizing its environmental footprint and engaging with local communities, Southern Copper promotes ethical and sustainable practices within the defense supply chain.

Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ)

Cameco Corporation is one of the world’s largest providers of uranium fuel, a critical component for nuclear power generation and the production of nuclear weapons. Cameco’s operations, primarily located in Canada and the United States, play a vital role in ensuring a secure and reliable supply of uranium for both defense and civilian nuclear applications.

Cameco’s uranium mining and processing activities are essential for maintaining the US nuclear deterrent and ensuring the continued operation of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines. A stable supply of uranium fuel is vital for national security, as it underpins the US’s nuclear capabilities and its ability to project power globally.

Furthermore, Cameco’s commitment to safety and environmental responsibility is crucial for the sustainable and ethical sourcing of uranium.

By adhering to stringent safety standards and minimizing the environmental impact of its operations, Cameco contributes to the responsible management of nuclear materials and supports the long-term viability of the nuclear industry.

Teck Resources Limited (NYSE:TECK)

Teck Resources is a diversified mining company headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. It is one of the world’s largest producers of zinc and copper and also produces other commodities such as coal, lead, and silver. Teck operates mines and processing facilities in Canada, the United States, Chile, and Peru.

Teck’s zinc operations are located in Canada, the United States, and Peru. The company is the world’s second-largest producer of zinc, with a production capacity of over 800,000 tonnes per year. Teck’s zinc is used in a variety of applications, including galvanized steel, batteries, and chemicals.

Teck’s operations are also significant for their contribution to the global supply of battery metals. Zinc is a key component of many types of batteries, including lead-acid batteries and nickel-zinc batteries. Teck’s zinc production is therefore essential for the growing demand for batteries in electric vehicles and other applications.

Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD)

Steel Dynamics is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metals recyclers in the United States. The company produces a wide range of high-quality steel products, including flat roll steel, structural steel, and rail, which are essential for various industries, including the defense sector. From the construction of military vehicles and ships to the building of infrastructure and manufacturing of critical components, steel remains a foundational material for national defense.

A strong and resilient domestic steel industry is vital for ensuring national security. Steel Dynamics’ production capacity and commitment to technological advancement contribute to the stability and self-reliance of the U.S. defense industrial base. By sourcing steel from domestic producers like Steel Dynamics, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers and ensure that it has access to the necessary materials to support its defense needs in times of crisis or geopolitical instability.

Furthermore, Steel Dynamics’ focus on sustainable practices and environmental stewardship is important for ensuring the long-term viability of the domestic steel industry. By investing in energy-efficient technologies and minimizing its environmental impact, the company contributes to a more sustainable and resilient defense industrial base. This is crucial for national security, as it ensures that the production of steel for defense applications is conducted in a manner that is both environmentally responsible and economically sustainable.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS)

Reliance Steel & Aluminum is a large metals service center company that provides a wide range of metal processing and distribution services to customers in various industries, including aerospace, defense, and infrastructure. The company’s ability to source and process a diverse range of metals makes it a valuable partner to the defense industry, which relies on specialized metals for the production of advanced weapons systems and equipment.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum’s extensive network of service centers across North America provides a reliable and efficient supply chain for defense contractors. The company’s ability to deliver the right materials at the right time is essential for maintaining the production schedules of critical defense programs. This ensures that the U.S. military has access to the equipment and weapons systems it needs to fulfill its missions and protect national security.

Furthermore, Reliance Steel & Aluminum’s focus on value-added processing services, such as cutting, forming, and machining, helps defense contractors reduce their manufacturing costs and improve efficiency. This contributes to the affordability and competitiveness of U.S. defense systems in the global market. By providing these essential services, Reliance Steel & Aluminum plays a vital role in supporting the strength and readiness of the U.S. military.

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT)

ArcelorMittal is the world’s leading steel and mining company, with a significant presence in the United States. The company’s vast production capacity and global reach make it a critical supplier of steel to various industries, including the defense sector. ArcelorMittal’s ability to produce a wide range of steel products, from basic sheet steel to specialized high-strength alloys, is essential for the manufacturing of vehicles, ships, and infrastructure.

ArcelorMittal’s commitment to research and development ensures that the company remains at the forefront of steelmaking technology. This is crucial for meeting the evolving demands of the defense industry, which requires advanced materials to produce lighter, stronger, and more resilient equipment.

Furthermore, ArcelorMittal’s focus on sustainability and responsible sourcing is important for ensuring the long-term viability of the steel industry and its ability to support national security needs. By minimizing its environmental impact and promoting ethical labor practices, ArcelorMittal contributes to a more sustainable and responsible defense supply chain.

MP Materials (NYSE: MP)

MP Materials owns and operates Mountain Pass, the only integrated rare earth mining and processing site in North America. Rare earth elements are essential for a wide range of technologies, including defense applications such as guidance systems, lasers, and radar. MP Materials’ role in securing a domestic supply of these critical minerals is vital for reducing dependence on foreign sources, particularly China, which currently dominates the rare earth market.

The concentration of rare earth production in China poses a potential risk to national security, as it creates a vulnerability to supply chain disruptions or geopolitical tensions. MP Materials’ operations at Mountain Pass contribute to diversifying the rare earth supply chain and ensuring that the U.S. has access to these critical materials for its defense needs. This reduces reliance on potentially adversarial nations and strengthens the resilience of the U.S. defense industrial base.

Furthermore, MP Materials’ commitment to environmental responsibility and sustainable mining practices is important for ensuring the long-term viability of its operations and the responsible sourcing of rare earth elements. By minimizing its environmental impact and adhering to high ethical standards, MP Materials contributes to a more secure and sustainable defense supply chain.

NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NASDAQ: NB)

NioCorp Developments is focused on developing the Elk Creek Superalloy Materials Project in Nebraska, which is expected to be a significant source of niobium, scandium, and titanium. Niobium is a critical material used in the production of high-strength steel alloys, which are essential for the construction of military vehicles, aircraft, and infrastructure. Scandium is used in advanced aluminum alloys for aerospace applications, and titanium is a crucial material for aerospace and defense applications due to its strength, lightness, and corrosion resistance.

NioCorp’s Elk Creek project has the potential to establish a domestic supply of these critical minerals, reducing reliance on foreign sources and strengthening the U.S. defense industrial base. By securing access to these materials, the U.S. can ensure the production of advanced military equipment and maintain its technological edge in the defense sector.

Furthermore, NioCorp’s commitment to responsible mining practices and community engagement is important for ensuring the long-term sustainability of its operations and the responsible sourcing of critical minerals. By prioritizing environmental protection and working closely with local communities, NioCorp contributes to a more secure and socially responsible domestic supply chain for critical minerals used in defense applications.

By. Tom Kool

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Forward-Looking Statements

This publication contains forward-looking information which is subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this publication are based on current expectations and assumptions about future events, geopolitical developments, trade policies, market conditions, the company’s strategic initiatives to address the critical shortage of antimony, and current expectations, estimates, and projections about the industry and markets in which the company operates.  Factors that could change or prevent these statements from coming to fruition include, but are not limited to, the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. elections on various industries and specific companies, changes in government policies, market conditions, regulatory developments, geopolitical events and the company’s ability to successfully acquire and develop new antimony resources and fluctuations in antimony prices. The forward-looking information contained herein is given as of the date hereof and we assume no responsibility to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.

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• Nvidia investors are expecting volatile moves in the stock after company reports earnings.

• Traders are pricing in a $300 billion, or an 8% swing, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.

• All eyes will be on the firm’s future guidance for Blackwell, its next-generation AI chip.

Nvidia investors are gearing up for volatile moves in Nvidia stock after the chip titan reports Q3 earnings, with markets pricing in an 8% stock swing after the results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The swing would imply a $300 billion gain or loss in market value. The total market cap of the stock measured in at $3.5 trillion around 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday.

The chipmaker, which is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell, was down 1.8% Tuesday morning, with traders eyeing little room for error as the world’s largest company by market cap trades around record highs.

Investors are expecting the firm to report $33 billion in revenue for the third quarter, which would mark an 83% increase from the same quarter last year.

In particular, all eyes will be on the firm’s guidance for Blackwell, with Wall Street looking for clues on how strong demand will be for its next-gen GPU.

In October, Huang described the demand for Blackwell as “insane.”

Nvidia could be on track to beat its earnings revenue by $2 billion, and the company could be on par to reach a $4 trillion valuation or higher in 2025, strategists from Wedbush Securities said in a note on Wednesday.

“Blackwell represents the next frontier for Nvidia and the overall AI Revolution and we believe the Street is still way underestimating the demand curve over the next 12 to 18 months and beyond. The cloud numbers and AI data points from Redmond, Amazon, Google were robust during earnings season the last month as this indicates massive enterprise AI demand is now underway,” the firm wrote.

“Starting in the fourth quarter, Nvidia’s new Blackwell GB200 GPU will dominate its sales for the next couple of years,” Louis Navellier, the chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates, added. “Since Nvidia spent approximately $2 billion developing the Blackwell GPU, it has no competitors and as it develops even more powerful GPU successors to Blackwell, I do not expect any competitor to ‘crack’ Nvidia’s monopoly on generative AI.”

Some forecasters, though, are concerned that Nvidia’s stock could drop even if the company beats earnings, due to investors’ sky-high expectations. That’s what happened after its last quarterly report, with Nvidia shares seeing a brief sell-off despite strong results overall.

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